Indications from the upper air 500 mb charts show arrival of A2 by Friday.

It seems A2 may commence precipitation in Pakistan and Northern most regions of India by Friday, 8th. April.

Vagaries estimates a fairly active system, and snow over the higher reaches of Kashmir and H.P. is on the cards by Friday/Saturday. Snow could also be expected in Gulmarg and Pahalgam hill stations and in the Lahaul valley including Keylong in H.P.

Manali, Dalhousie and H.P. hill stations can expect rains on the week end, with the days getting cold at 14/15c.

Central India (see Vagaries forecast map of Monday), should get convective rains on Thursday/Friday, as a line of wind dis-continuity is expected to form.

Next detailed forecast on Friday with map.

Mumbai:

Wed/Thurs/Friday: Days will be sunny with the highs in the 32/33c and nights will be below normal till Friday, at around 20c in the suburbs and 23c at Colaba.

Low clouds are expected on 7th. night. Low cumulus clouds will flyby from the west on Wednesday night.

Neeraj sends this report from Nepal..

"Its here: http://earthquake-report.com/2011/04/03/earthquakes-list-april-4-2011/

It was felt in Delhi, but we did not feel it here in Kathmandu. The epicenter was in Nepal

And the report of damage within Nepal is here:http://www.ekantipur.com/2011/04/04/top-story/5.7-quake-causes-minor-damages-in-baitadi/331976.html.

Thanks Neeraj.

The A1 Effect:

Look at the day temperatures in the sub-continent on Monday, 4th April. A couple of 39s, and some 38s. Highest in India being at Kurnool, 39.4c. and the entire Northern region is in the 33/34 range. Kashmir and H.P. were very cold today, with the highest in Srinagar at 10c.

The departure from normal map from IMD says it all !

Across the border too, the days were less hot on the 4th, with the highest in Pakistan showing 38.6c at Lasbella.

A thundershower on Monday noon turned weather pleasant for the residents of Islamabad. Day was comfortable with a high of 21c and low dropping to 9c on Monday.

But, A1 sprang a surprise in Muree. The hill station reieved snowfall, and according to reports, the last time it snowed in April was in 1996.

Seeing days getting hotter in Sindh again, to 42/43 levels, next 3 days.

Forecast for Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday/Friday..forecast till 8th April.

Summary of events till Friday, 8th in Vagaries map; Click here for map enlargement.

Now, with A1 moving away from tomorrow, Tuesday, I see precipitation decreasing in Kashmir and H.P. Rainfall will be restricted to the NE states and Orissa coast in the Indian region next 4 days, i.e. till Friday, 8th. April.

Some covective thundershowers in Central India on Friday.

As the rain effect wears off, mild heat wave conditions, are expected to spread into the Vidharbha, Southern M.P. and Gujarat regions from Wednesday thru Friday. Ahmadabad could see a high of 42c by Thursday.

Rise in Northern India may be to the high 30s, next 3 days.(Again, to compare the increase, see current days in the map above).

But, as a line of wind dis-continuity may form, resultant convective rains and thundershowers will cool the days on Friday in Vidharbha and east M.P.regions.

Nepal too, may see warmer days till Friday. However, some thundershowers in the hilly areas could be possible till Friday due to moisture remaining from A1.

Mumbai: Pleasant for this time, with the days at 31/32c and nights a pleasant 20/23c. Quite comforrtable for Mumbai, with a week gone in April !

Interior maharashtra is, in fact shivering last few nights. As mentioned in vagaries. Pune and Ahmadnagar were 11c a couple of days ago. Even on Monday morning (4th), Nasik was 13.2c and Pune was 13.4c.Both 5c below normal. Several cities were around 15c.

For Saturday,, 9th April onwards Vagaries will put up a fresh forecast, as A2 arrives and will be active. As of now, seems A2 is set to be a bit more active than A1.

5.7 Magnitude Quake Jolts North India at 5 p.m.

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This weekend (Saturday/sunday), A1 is precipitating rain/snow in Northern Indian states of Kashmir, Utteranchal and H.P. Rainfall in patches was also reported from Punjab/Haryana and Delhi, where several places recorded between 1-5 mms of rain. Todats rain chart from IMD shows the rains in Northern India, Kerala and NE states. Compares well with Vagaries forecast map.

Fresh snowfall and rains occured across the Kashmir Valley today. Gulmarg received light snowfall while other high altitude areas, including cave shrine Amarnath got snowfall too.

Highest in India was 41c at Jharsuguda.

A1 will fizzle out from India by Wednesday. Mon/Tuesday will see precipitation in the hilly states, while plains of Northern India will be dry.

However a drop in day temperatures by about 2/3c from current levels is expected in Punjab/ Haryana/ Rajasthan and U.P. on Mon/Tues.

Meanwhile system has moved away from Pakistan, and resulted in cooling the regions of Sindh and Punjab from the rising summer heat.

Highest temperature in Pakistan was only 39c at Dadu.

And A1 has now crossed into Nepal. As forecasted, there was rain on Sunday. Pokhara and Taplejung measured 5.7 mms of rain. Cloudy Sunday in Kathmandu kept the day at 28c and the nights very comfortable at 11c. System rainfall will move away after Monday, restricting the precipitation to Central regions on Monday.

A resultant induced low is expected to form over North Bangladesh by Monday. Northern regions of Bangladesh can expect heavy thundershowers on Monday and Tuesday.

Coastal Orissa will be wettish on Wednesday.

Next 4 days temperature and precipitation forecast will be put up on Monday, 4th. night.

Meanwhile, it was 43c in Dadu, Sindh a day ago. Very close to our poll figure of "first to reach" 45c. Only 29% have put in their votes for the time period 1-10 april.

WEATHER TALK

By Mark Vogan

THE ROLLERCOASTER SPRING PATTERN RULES UK-W. EUROPE

A lot cooler across the UK and even across much of Europe but the warmth will return between Wednesday and Thursday where London may top 22C by Thursday... details of this article on Mark's blog here.

Mumbai: Hazy/Misty early morning till 9 a.m. Visibility 1200 metres and hazy. Currently clear and 29c and 62% humidity. Winds NWnow at 13 kmph. Will strengthen by evening. Wankhede pitch is North-South.
Repeat: Dew factor to be considered after nightfall.

Ahmadnagar and Pune dip to 11c as minimum today morning !!

This will make You Smile Today-before the Cricket WC...

While pundits on both sides of the Palk Straight vouch for their side, IMD Colaba spokesperson has already confused the "pitch experts" and action and dependance on their statement could go awry !

IMD Colaba , in the TOI, dated today, 2nd. April, page 2, last para, under "The Weather Gods will smile Today''- Quote-

--"The temperature reaches its max between 2 pm and 3 pm. The humidity will be high during this time, as it is proportionate to temperatures. So,when the match starts, players will face heat along with humidity.But as the day proceeds, the heat and humidity will decrease."--

Oh! So, the humidity increases in the afternoon, and decreases by evening /night ??

So sorry, Vagaries had put up just the opposite -:))). Should review my meteorology again maybe ?

And, TOI correspondent should come with me to met. classes- Humidity is measured in degrees according to TOI !!

Click here to enlarge

First day of April in the subcontinent. Not bad, with Northern plains in the high 30s and Anantpur in A.P. at 40.6c.

Even hot regions of Sindh, Pakistan, are only just about touching 40c. With the 3 day "cool off" predicted for Karachi lapsing, the N and NW winds have brought an unexpected jump at Karachi which soared to 38c today.

Come April 1st and there is a mild cold wave in madhya Maharashtra.(West iterior Maharashtra). Norms say temperatures 4 below normal is a cold wave, and 7 below a severe cold wave.

Cold spots in Maharashtra on 1st april: Ahmadnagar 13c (-7), Nashik 14.5c (-4), Pune 15c (-4).

A1 precipitating over North Pakistan, North Indian states of Kashmir and H.P. on Saturday, and sliding into western Nepal on Sunday. Thundershower popping up over Kathmandu this weekend as a result.

Capital of Nepal seems to be enjoying very pleasant climatic conditions presently..27.4c - 11.5c range of temperatures is very comfortable !

Monsoon Watch Series 1st. article... log on to Vagaries on 10th. April !