A follow up of the system in the Bay shows it moving along the expected track.

After grazing the Eastern coast of India, the system, now a depression as per IMD, at 1000 mb, is located today evening at 19.2N and 83.5E, 100 kms from Vizag.

However, The rainfall precipitation from the system has not been very heavy as yet.And does not seem so as on Thursday night, seeing the satellite image (above) from NOAA.

In fact, on Wednesday/Thursday, due to strong westerlies rushing towards the system, rainfall was heavier in Kerala.

Some of the heaviest recordings were from Kerala were, as on Thursday morning in cms: Piravom (Ernakulam dt) 18, Enamackal (Thrissur dt) 17, Chalakudi (Thrissur dt) 16, Thrissur, Kunnamkulam (Thrissur dt) and Vellanikara 14 each, Vaikom (Kottayam dt) 12 each, Chengannur (Alapuzha dt) 11, Vadakancherry (Thrissur dt),Kozhikode 6.3, Alapuzha 6.2, Thiruvanthapuram 5.9, Panambur 4.3.

While A.P. and Orissa recieved in cms as: Chandbali 6.7, Paradip 6.4, Balasore 6.2, Imphal 5.4, Muzaffarpur 4.8, Digha 3.1,

It is expected to cross the Orissa coast tonite (7th.) near Gopalpur.

Due to interaction with W.D. winds, I expect the system to move North-Eastwards, still grazing the coast,, and initially pour heavy rains in W.Bengal and Bangladesh.

A storm surge is possible in Bangladesh over the next two days with high waves. Several ports, like Chittagong, towns and villages along the coast need to be aware and take due precautions after consulting local weather office.

Around the 10th. it will enter into NE Indian states as a low, and weaken very fast.

The SWM monsoon withdrawal position remains the same as yesterday. Would consider further withdrawal from NE and south after this depression dissipates.

Error:
On Wednesday, 6th, 36c was recorded at Akola, not Nagpur as mentioned.

The Convective Available Potential Energy and Precipitable Water map shows the monsoon humidity "sliding "down south. The 850 hpa map also indicates the same, and very appropropriate to withdraw the monsoon at this stage from regions southwards from the 20N line.

As on today, indications are clear of Monsoon having retreated from

Mah. state.Vagaries withdraws the SWM from Maharashtra .

The appraoching well marked low, from the bay, will now dictate the SWM withdrawal and commencement of the NEM in the next 3/4 days.

The system is expected to graze the east coast fro A.P. to Orissa, before crossing inland near Orissa/W.Bengal.

Announcing the monsoon withdrawal from Mah. and we see the days getting hot on Wednesday, 6th. Hottest in the state is Nagpur at 36c, and Aurangabad at 35c, we have several other cities in the state at 33c/34c.

On Wednesday, 6th;

Highest in India: Jaisalmer 40c.

Highest in Sub-Continent: Nawabshah and Hyderabad (Pakistan) 42c

Highest in Asia: Makkah 43c.

Bay of Bengal:

95B, the low now formed in the bay. Latest position is at 11.7n and 89.8E. The system is having clouding in its NE quadrant , at present.

The low at present at 1004 mb, is likely to deepen and move initially in the West-Northwest direction. It will approach near the A.P. coast, resulting in rains along the A.P./T.N. coast around the 6th/7th. Oct.

Later, due to an approaching W.D. the system will be diverted to the Northerly track. And with the W.D. moving eastwards, the Bay system will start tugging in a northerly track, to cross the coast of Orissa, or maybe even W.Bengal by the 10th. Of all the possible feasibilities, I find the one in the enclosed map most likely and favourable.

Arabian Sea:

96A is seen as hovering off the south Konkan coast. Like I mentioned for the previous low, observed today morning (Monday), I too do not read much in this low. It is a formation of convective heat, and will disappear by Tuesday. And the convective clouds are also seen off and along the Konkan coast. This is typical of a retreating Monsoon.

SWMonsoon:

The "aged" SWM is still precipitating rains below the 20N line. Heavy rains have been measured up in Ratnagiri, 87 mms, and Vengurla 71 mms, both in the Konkan. Goa received 41 mms.In the south Thiruvan. recorded 76 mms and Hasan 70 mms with Medikeri getting 62 mms.

Another 2 days, and vagaries may withdraw the monsoon from Mah.

In the regions of Rajasthan and Sindh in Pakistan, we observe a virtual heat wave ! The highest temperature in India on Monday was 40c at jaisalme

r. Bhuj went up to 39c and Jodhpur was 38c.

And the higheast in Asia today was at Nawabshah,Pakistan, where

the day shot up to 44c.!! The port city of Karachi was at 39c today.

International models show the pressure in the Rajasthan region falling to 1002mb in the next 4/5 days. Now this is a bit surprising, for if it does drop to 1004 mb, when normally it should be at 1008/9 mb around this time, this forecasted pressure development may not be too favourable for the setting of th NEM. In this case, the monsoon trough would be prevented from "jumping downsouth."

A brief Note on 2 systems . Detailed write up tonite by 11pm.

The major event in the Arabian Sea is the formation of 93A. Presently off the Karnataka coast, I would not give too much importance to this system.My reading is that this system will prolong the SWM by another 3 days along the Karnataka and Kerala coast. 93A will dissipitate in 3days altogether.

The Bay system, 95B, presently at 11.4N and 90.2E, is expected to deepen and move initially west/Northwest. And subsequently should move to the North.Detailes track expected will be discussed in tonite's blog.

According to "Vagaries" estimate;
As on Saturday, 2nd. October,The SWMosoon has retreated from all regions west of W.Bengal, North of the 20N line.

Monsoon still "on" in W.Bengal, NE States and states south of 20N including Mah.

Observing today's OLR and cloud motion vector maps, I would consider the monsoon having retreated from all places above 20N, westwards of W.Bengal and the north-eastern states.Meaning, Mah. not considered as monsoon free yet.

Both the maps are illustrative enough,and need no elaborations.

Will declare it accordingly tomorrow.

Vagaries had anticipitated this rise in day temperatures, about a week after the monsoon widhraws .

And look at the high day temperatures venturing from the west in the monsoon widhrawn regions. A 41c in Nawabshah,Pakistan, Karachi and many places there reaching 39c and otherwise a wide range of 38s.

In neighbouring India, Rajasthan, see the 38s now dominating the scene. And gradually showing 36 and 37 eastwards.The highest in India on friday was ,38c recorded at Jaisalmer and Bhuj.

Unlike the day temperatures which spreading the heat from the west, the nights gradual lowering will start from the north. I do not think we will have to wait too long for the nights to get pleasant.

The lowest temperature in the country on Friday was -4c at Darbuk, Ladhak. Places in H.P. like Kalpa and Keylong have started seeing minimum readings of a few notches above freezing.

Not too long before the drop is seen in Punjab and Haryana, the next in line southwards.