All India Highest Rainfall figures from 1st.June to 10th. July 2010:

Cherrapunji: 4369 mms (+539)

Agumbe:1704 mms

Shirali:1593 mms

Honavar: 1425 mms

Mumbai Colaba:1387 mms (+537)

Mangalore: 1383 mms

Harnai:1345 mms (+349)

Kasargod:1337 mms (+71)

Goa Panjim: 1334 mms(+156)

Passighat: 1303 (+46)

Ratnagiri:1214 mms (+45)

Mumbai SantaCruz: 1213 mms (+366)

Mahableshwar: 862 mms (-855)*

* half the normal amount.

All India Monsoon deficit is now at -10%. Blog poll shows highest on this figure as yet.

Our reader has asked for Mahableshwar details of rain. I have given the June end figure earlier.Lonavala receieved 437 mms of rain till end June. Last yaer Mahableshwar had 2823 mmsmms till July end and Lonavala recieved 2550 mms till end July.

Mumbai Water and Rain Facts:
This Monsoon Mumbaikars are rejoicing and happily welcoming the heavy rains,hoping against hope for a better year ahead as far as the water needs are concerned.
But mind,i am not pessimistic, but feel one should see the reality and analyse the fact. And then make a judgement.

Total Rainfall so far, as on Saturday,10th. July Morning:
Colaba: 1379 mms
Santa Cruz: 1143 mms
Lakes: Vihar, Tulsi, Tansa,Upper Vaitarna, Bhatsa between them have an average rainfall of about 900 mms.

Highest seasonal rainfall, till September end, ever recorded in Colaba 3482 mms (1954), and lowest ever 848 mms (1904).
For SantaCruz highest is 3785 mms(1958) and lowest 1482 mms(1968).
Highest ever day's rain in July/Aug/Sept at Colaba 576/287/548 mm and at SantaCruz 944/346/318 mms.

Lakes Water capacity as on Saturday : 2010: 1.74 lmlitres(Lakh million litres).
:2009: 1.46 lmlitres
:2008 2.77 lmlitres
:2005 8.69 lmlitres
Aversge capacity normally this date: 5.0 lmlitres
Full Lakes capacity, required at end of season:13.0 lmlitres.

Lakes short of overflowing level: Bhatsa 34 mtrs, Modak Sager 15 mts,Vaitarna 10 mtrs,Tansa 7 mtrs,Vihar 5 mtrs, Tulsi 3 mtrs,

Now, the situation is on your screen, good or bad, you decide !

The flood fury in Punjab has been destructive.Ambala, Patiala and Sangrur rural districts to come under the spate of flood waters.Ambala recieved 600 mms of rain in 3 days consecutive, and Patiala getting 353 mms, 242 in excess of the normal. In Patiala where 15 villages have been submerged in water and paddy crop in 80,000 acres has been washed

away.

As the UAC now lies over

U.P.(remnant of the low), the axis of monsoon axis has shifted northwestwards and now passes through Anupgarh, Churu, Lucknow, Patna, Bardwan, Canning and thence south-eastwards to east central Bay of Bengal.Well, almost into a mini break monsoon situation, as easterlies are getting replaced by westerlies over Indo-gangetic plains.

A decrease in the interiors of the peninsula, M.P.and Gujarat seem iminent in the next few days. There is a possibilities of rain increasing in the interiors of the peninsula from the 13th. when the axis may shift south.

We will have to anticipate a low in the bay to get revivals of rain along the eastern coast.

Moderate rainfall should continue along the axis, that is parts of U.P,Uttaranchal, certain areas of northern-eastern M.P. and regions of H.P.till 13th. July, the date from when ECMWF shows the axis shifting south.

Gujarat rains will reduce considerably from 12th, when the off shore trough can be expected to move away from the Gujarat coast.

But, the off shore trough from Gujarat coast to Kerala coast persists, keeping up hopes for some rains to continue along the west coast of India.In fact, models show the trough "reving up" a bit on Monday, around the North Konkan area.

Mumbai:After a wettish Friday night, Saturday will be a day of passing showers, with with even a few brighter intervals. On Sunday, expect the rains to increase from night (with thunder) into Monday. saturday rains will be about 25 mms, but Sunday, may be more rainy and the city may get 35-40 mms, with about 40 mms on Monday. tuesday will see passing showers again, with some bright intervals and 30 mms of rain.

Mumbai Colaba total rain this monsoon is 1350 mms till Friday evening. In 2009, end of August total was 1242 mms.

Write up on the Record U.S. Heat from our Partner Blog here.

kapadias@gmail.com

An excellent feedback of the current US heat wave from Our Partner Blog.

After the hottest day in 15 years (102 degree) yesterday, this morning dawned the warmest on record with a morning low of 83 degrees at Philadelphia.....

Philadelphia tops an even warmer 103 today!

It really has been quite the heatwave for the Eastern third with two-straight afternoons topping 100 degrees from DC to Central Park in New York City. Baltimore, MD saw 105-degrees yesterday with it's warmest day in 27 years whilst a stunning 106-degree high was recorded at Frederick, MD and Williamsburg, VA.......

-Baltimore, MD has seen it's warmest in 27 years this afternoon and second warmest ever reading with 105 degrees.....

These are reports from Mark,s blog..read a detailed report and analysis of the current heat wave in the US here..

IMD declared on Tuesday, 6th, that the monsoon has advanced into remaining parts of Rajasthan, covering the entire country about 10 days earlier than normal This had made up for the delay elsewhere and helped bring down the mercury in the Northern areas,and boosting farmer's hopes.A western disturbance may have offered the perfect cover for declaring the onset. The rains received over the last two days in the Northwest have been heavy to very heavy at times.

And over the region, the low pressure over central India, has made the normally requires easterlies to deviate yet again by flows from the Arabian Sea, now blowing straight into the Northern/Northwestern regions. This has moved the Monsoon rains to cover west Rajasthan, but easterlies have ceased over Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, and become southerlies.

Meanwhile, the low over Bay of Bengal off the A.P. coast persisted on Tuesday. ECMWF forecasts a westward movement for the system. This should result in a round of rains for the main peninsula areas.
Interior Maharshtra and A.P. should see increase from Thursday. Gujarat/Saurashtra should recieve moderate sparsed rain Wednesday thru Friday, with about 25 mms /day. I see rains decreasing in the Delhi region till Friday. Mumbai forecast: Wednesday thru Friday: Heavy passing showers, not too prolonged. Dry breaks sparsed in between showers can be expected, but be ready for sudden haevy downpours of limited durations. Rain will be 25-30 mms/day. On Tuesday, Colaba recieved 30 mms and Santacruz 36mms. (Vagaries Forecast 35 mms).
But for India,nothing dries up India's economic prospects more than the absence of monsoon clouds.With 60% of India's crop land still watered by rain, the monsoon is critical to determining food prices. The rains are in deficit, as of end June, but, more than the quantity, it's how the rains have covered the country that matters. In some key crop-producing areas, like the central region/Northern where most of India's oilseeds, lentils and rice are grown, rains were 26% below the average in June.
Timing is also crucial. For instance,the met department expects the rains to be heaviest in September. But for crops sown in June and July, that could have a damaging effect. In Uttar Pradesh, the second-largest sugar producer in the country, sugar output is already expected to fall short of earlier estimates by 5% because of the delayed showers. And let us not forget the importance of the farmer's capacity:, -60% of the demand comes from farmers--from consumer items to motorcycle, sales, are linked to crop yields. Certainly, with India's economy rebounding, consumer demand in the cities should hold up regardless of the weather. But more than 700 million Indians live in villages, and rural sales are a critical source of expansion for many Indian companies. With so much depending on them, the Monsoon has to "burst" in full fury over India.
It is too early to panic about this. Only a quarter of the rainy season has passed, and one factor that kept the rains away last year, the global El Nino weather effect, is fading. But a year after the worst drought in nearly four decades, India needs a normal rainfall more than ever.

Actual Rainfall map of Sunday
COLA forecast

Thai Map

The UAC has weakened and moved away west as a very weak circulation in the Arabian sea off the Okha coast.

An area of low presuure,998 mb, has descended from the upper atmosphere, and formed at sea level over M.P.(Thai Map)

This event has shifted the monsoon trough southwards, and on Sunday,passes through Phalodi, Ajmer, centre of the mentioned low, Nagpur, Jagdalpur, Visakhapatnam and

thence southeastwards to southeast Bay of Bengal. It extends upto mid tropospheric levels and passes through Dahanu, Ramagundam, Kakinada and thence

southeastwards to southeast Bay of Bengal. The off-shore trough at sea level from Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast persists.

With this, hopes of reasonable rainfall resuming in the central regoins of the country have brightened.

A fresh low pressure is forming in the bay, and is expected to become stronger and move towards the Orissa coast in the next couple of days. The system could be expected to cross the Orissa coast around the 6th, and move inland. Hence, heavy rains could be estimated for the A.P./Orissa coast from the 6th,Tuesday, and increase in the next 2 days. As the system moves thru the central regions of the country, monsoon could get activated, and rainfall ( to the tune of 40-60 mms/day) could be forecasted for the entire M.P.and Maharashtra coastal regions from Tuesday thru Friday. (I go by the COLA forecast of system crossing on 6th).

But, the interiors of Maharashtra and Karnataka may have to continue with the minimum of rains, without substantial increase next week.

Actual rainfall distribution during Sunday is shown in the rain map above.Good rains along the western peripheri of the low.Total rainfall during the past 24 hours at 193 available stations in the plains, out of 291 stations, is 242 cms. Normal for the above 193 stations is 58 cms.

Realised rainfall & Chief amounts (in cms) during past 24 hrs enede Sunday Morning:

Cherrapunji 13.2, Haflong 7.5,

Wardha 9.9, Guna 7.4, Sheopur 4.6, Khajurao 4.3,

Mumbai (Colaba) 14.9, Bagsra 14.2, Alibag 10.7, Jamnagar IAF 10.4, Baroda City 10.3, Rajkot 9.5, Thasra 8.4,

Cannur 6.7, Balasionor & Halol 6.6 each, Panambur 6.0,

Now, the North-West and the Northern region are yet to recieve the Monsoon. With the Monsoon having advanced more into the North today, the day temperatures have fallen to some extent.

Highest in Asia today: Dal Bandin (Pakistan) and Basra (Iraq) : 47c

Highest in India:Jaisalmer: 43c.

Mumbai: Surging ahead ! Mumbai Colaba is moving ahead with having recieved 52% of its monsoon quota by the 4th. of July ! With a fresh addition of 149 mms on Sunday, the total at Colaba has now gone upto 1109 mms. Santa Cruz Airport has totalled 891 mms as on Sunday.But, the much needed regions of the lakes still need a lot more, as the rain in the lakes average around 500 mss in comparison. (The 1109 mms in Colaba has "gone down the drain").The highest yesterday in Mumbai was in the Worli area, with 184 mms. (I have my doubts about the correctness of the 39 cms reported from Dharavi).

On Monday, Mumbai will recieve showers, which should not be too prolonged.Showers will be scattered in parts of the city at different times of the day. Acuumalated rains will total 20-25 mms /day.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, a moderate increase in the rain intensity, to about 35 mms in the day, with thunder.

The system,UAC, discussed yesterday, has moved fast westwards, and, now seems to be over Gujarat. Well, that is at least 12 hrs faster than forecasted in this blog yesterday. Its "whizzing" quite fast !

Anyway, at the time of writing this blog, its already pouring heavy rains in Gujarat, and Mumbai's expectations from the system, in terms of rain were pretty well met with.

Mumbai: Saturday was a rainy day, with frequent heavy spells. The highest rain from 10 am to 10 pm, Saturday, was at Worli, where 184 mms of rain was recorded. Dadar was next with 158 mms. Colaba got 102 mms of rain, while it was 40 mms at Santa Cruz. Vile Parle collected 83 mms of precipitation. The Municipal HQ at CST recieved 83 mms of rain.

Quite a big variation from place to place within the city. Our blog estimate (for Mumbai) was of around 80 mms for Saturday.

For Mumbai,I expect the rains to taper off from Sunday afternoon. About 35-40 mms on Sunday.

The system should move away, and weaken fast.