ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño is present
(Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 August 2026).
* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the east central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
*The atmospheric circulation anomalies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are consistent with El Niño.
(NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña
El Niño: characterized by a positive RONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative RONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.
By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly relative Niño3.4 departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features.
anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.)
The other important agency monitoring the ENSO is the Australian Government – Bureau of Meteorology.
Bureau of Meteorology, Australia:
For declaration of an El Nino event
SOI: The three-month average SOI is –7 or lower.
Conclusion: El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Sept/Oct and Nov/dec/Jan 2026-27.
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