31st October:

October 2025 Month's Rainfall:

Place /Oct25 /Normal  /

*Record   /2025 Annual (In mms) 

CLB.      168.    082.        

*507(1917).    2934

SCZ.       076.    091.       

*377(1998).    3566

PUNE     067.   105.       

 *440(1892).   1174

R'GIRI    260.    124.       

*439(1938).   4078

MWAR.  235.    140.       

*956(1938).   6925

Abd         104.    077       

*415(1990).    0919

PNJI.       459.    146.      

*391(2006).    3647

 30th October Night:

AS - 5: Our Vagarian Gaurav Raninga points out that this could possibly be the longest surviving (in days over Sea), if it enters its 11th day on 31st October.

We have the original post forecast as on 19th October 

Finally  after several permutations,  AS 5, tracks on a predicted path..  Current location 👇

Mumbai: Moderate to light showers to persist in Mumbai till 2nd November. 

Pune/Sambhajinagar: Light Rains till 31st October.Nights getting cooler at 17°c.

Heavy rains expected from 31st October to 3rd November in Saurashtra and Gujarat Region including Bharuch. N

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[ Old systems: 

Vagarian Shitij informs:In 1894 also a depression stayed for 10 days in Arabian sea (from 17th Oct to 26th Oct)

Recently,Depression - Cyclone, show 2021 cyclone as surviving for 7 days 

Original Vagaries post of 14th May] 2021.

 29th Night Post:

Night Position Of the Two systems:

Outlook: AS 5 likely to recurve from above position and proceed N/NE (red line). Likely to weaken from Depression to Well Marked Low, (around 1003 mb).

Rainfall likely in North Konkan, North Madhya Maharashtra and Gujarat Region, South Coastal Gujarat and Southern parts of Saurashtra till 2nd November.

Heavier rainfall in Gujarat Region (Baroda, Bharuch expect around 80 mms on 31st Oct and 1st Nov) expected later on 31st/1st.

Remanants of MONTHA pouring deluge rains in Telengana.( See Rainfall amounts below) Rainfall to move into Vidharbh and Marathwada. 

Mumbai: After a dry day on Wednessday 29th, Rains expected in the night and as the system moves N/NE, Mumbai can expect moderate rainfall to continue 30th Oct to 2nd Nov. Moderate to rather heavy rainfall in patches.

Days warm around 33/34°c. 

Pune: Expected light rains or drizzles for 2 more days, 30th/31st. Expected to clear after 1st with nights getting cooler.(around 17/18°c.

MONTHA remnant pouring deluge rains in Telengana...👇

 29th October...2.30 pm ..Locations 

 

8th Night Post:

AS-5 Position...almost stationary

Rainfall from AS 5 on 28th

Mumbai Malabar Hill 15 mms

Colaba 14 mms ,DWard 14 mms

Cyclone MONTHA

27th October 

1.Cyclonic Storm Montha over the Bay   Bay is likely to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by Tuesday, 28 October.

Landfall is currently indicated between Machilipatnam and Kalingapatnam, during the evening or night.

Severe Cyclonic Storm with maximum sustained wind speeds of 90–100 kmph, gusting to 110 kmph.

2. Depression over East Central Arabian Sea

The Depression over the East Central Arabian Sea moved north-northeastwards at about 20 kmph during the past 6 hours and lay centered  near Latitude 16.1°N and Longitude 66.8°E.

Depression Rainfall today 27th in Gujarat 

 Mumbai Received 5 Calendar Months of Rainy Season in 2025 (till date)...26th May - 26th Oct.

                     

Colaba: mms

May: 503

June-Sept: 2263

October:     142 

Total: 2908 mms, 115"

----------------------------------

Scruz: mms

May: 378

June-sept: 3112

October: 63 

Total; 3553 mms, 140"                       

 Unseasonal Showers came as we waited ...26th October 

Mumbai #Mumbai #MMR #Rain till 11pm on 7-5-25

#Virar 70 mm

#MiraRd 65

#Palghar 60

#Dahisar 58

#Thane 51

#Koparkhairane 45

#Airoli 42

#Badlapur 38

#Manor 35

#SCZ 29

#Vashi, #NaviMumbai 39 mm

#Mulund 36

#Powai 35

#Diva 34

#Versova 32

#Bhandup & #Digha 32

#Malvani 28

#Matheran 27

#Vandre & #Shiv 25

#Palava 23

#MalabarHill & #Chembur 22

#CSMT & #Colaba 21

#Panvel & #Alibaug 16

#Ulhasnagar 13

#Ambernath 11

compiled by Vag Abhijit 

And Gujarat...too much !

27th Morning 👇👇

Mumbai rain in mms from 6am - 6pm Sunday 26th

Memon Wada 35

MCGM 30

Goregaon, Malad,VileParle 21

Borivali 23

WSC 28 

Vasai 20

----—---—-----------------------------------------------

26th October...Afternoon Post.

2 depressions seen on either side of Indian Peninsula.

Arabian Sea system causing rains and cloudiness in the outer circle shown.

System was estimated in Vagaries to persist and bring rain till October 30th.

Mumbai/Pune:

Persisting ( till 30th October) evening thunder showers in parts of city in the evenings.

We mention " parts" as being unseasonal, the showers' distribution will be patchy and in localized areas. 

Mumbai will be hot with stuffy nights. Range 35°-25°.

Pune will be in the 31°- 20° range.

So no indications of Major " winter" temperature drops in October. 

Gujarat: Saurashtra  and South Gujarat will get moderate to fairly heavy rain from 26th - 30th. There will be patches of 50- 80 mms / day on some days in Saurashtra. 

Bharuch: Rains,  moderately heavy till 29th October. 

Saturday Evening 

 

 

 24th Post 

Back to back lows forming.

BB-16 formed off TN coast, moved inland and now dissipated. 

New low BB-17 forming in south BoB...will intensify

AS-5 system is now a depression in Arabian Sea and moving NNE. Likely to bring rains/TS across west coast.

Pune Rainfall  🌨 🌨

DATE 23-10-2025

Time: 22:00 PM 

Ambegaon Katraj, Pune = 16 mm

Khadakwasla = 18.4 mm

Warje, Pune = 17 mm

Garware, Deccan Pune = 17 mm 

Aashay Measurements Pvt Limited

          Weather Division

 22nd Night:

The Depression in the Arabian Sea (See maps) is going into a phase of increasing " Total Precipitable Water" region.

Now expected to strengthen and move North/NW.

Rainfall and Thunder storm activity to hence continue along the West Coast and parts of Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Kokan, Interior Madhya Maharashtra,and Marathwada.

Maharashtra : Kokan, Madhya Maharashtra will get Thundershowers on almost daily afternoon basis till 30th October. 

Marathwada will get afternoon Thundershowers on daily basis from 23rd - 26th October.

Mumbai & Pune : Again, even after Diwali, Rains will persist till October end.

Almost on daily basis, city will see thundery developments towards late afternoon/evening till 30th October. Parts, many areas, will get the Thundershowers of varying intensity. 

We can expect particularly heavier and increase rains on 24th/25th October. Mumbai and Outer townships will see heavier showers.

Sambhajinagar: Light to moderate Afternoon/ Evening thunderstorms till 26th October. 

Extreme care for the cover of harvested crop. 

Jalgaon : Light to moderate thundershowers till 30th. Particularly heavy rains on 25th. 

Gujarat : As the Depression moves N/NW, we can expect rainfall to commence in South Gujarat and Souther Coast of Saurashtra on 25th - 27th.

Light to moderate rains in Bharuch, Surat and Valsad. ( 15-35 mms on 25th/26th).

Diwali Rains in Mumbai on 21st..

*Top rainfall amounts in Mumbai BMC*

Goregaon: 24.4 mm

Vikroli West: 22 mm

S Ward Office Bhandup: 21.32 mm

Kala Killa Mun. Sch Dharavi: 21 mm

Mithagar Mun. School, Mulund: 20 mm

Pratiksha Nagar Mun. School, Sion: 19 mm

Compiled by Vag Tejas

Konkan including MMR Rainfall till 11.30 pm from Thunderstorm on Laxmi Pujan day today on 21-10-25

Badlapur 118 mm

Dolwahal 55

Ambernath 51

Ulhasnagar 48

Kalyan 42

Pawane 39

Nerul 35

Bhatsa 34

Belapur 31

Mahape & Suryamal 29

Panvel & Ambivli 28

Deonar & Airoli 25

Goregaon & Shelavali 24

Vashi 23

Vikhroli 22

Suksale 21

Khandala 20

Savarkhand 18

Powai 16

Marol 15

Dombivli 14

Dadar, Bhandup & Mulund 11

Thane & #lMumbra 10

Manor 8

Mumbai SCZ 7

WSC 4  

Compiled by Vag Abhijit. 

 

see on Space News Page

COMET LEMMON AND THE GEOMAGNETIC STORM:

19th Night Post:

Rains that Refuse to go away ! 

Multiple systems on both sides... (One unseasonal) will be bringing unseasonably Rainy Weather to Maharashtra.

Mumbai :

October 

20/21/22nd: :   ⛅35°~24°c

23/24th:     ⛅☔: 31°~23°c

25/26th:         ⛅☔⛈: 31°~21°c

Pune :

Date:20/21st:   ⛅: 32°~21°c

Date22/23 /24/25th:   ⛅⛈ 31°~19°c 

👆Mumbai /Pune outlook valid till 25th..rain may increase on 26th.. So will update nearer the date. 

Sambhajinagar : Date:20th~25th:     ⛅☔:32° ~21°c

Jalgaon :

Date: 20~ 25th:   ⛅ 34°~23 °c

Goa:

Date: 20 ~ 25th : ⛅⛈ 34°~24°c

Gujarat : Hot & Dry.. Saurastra around36°~23°c 

and Surat/Valsad in the range of 35°~23c °

 Interesting video of outlook and 4 systems as estimated for 21st October. Lets see the Diwali outcome

 18th October 

Max temperatures range in some cities last one month:

 

Chicago winter could be coldest, snowiest in years thanks to weather phenomenon called "The Blob"....On World Weather News Page

North East Monsoon circulation and associated rainfall sets in over southern peninsular India:

 The large scale atmospheric circulation over the Asian Monsoon domain underwent a seasonal shift during the past two to three weeks and has now gradually settled towards a boreal autumn-winter time type circulation pattern. This shift includes a major change in the structure of the atmospheric column from a Baroclinic atmosphere that prevailed during the boreal summer monsoon season to a Barotropic/Equivalent Barotropic atmosphere which is currently observed. To easily understand and perceive this, one can see the recent changes that have taken place in the prevailing low level wind pattern which was predominantly south westerlies for the past 4 months has now shifted to north easterlies over the north Indian Ocean (The Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal) and the adjoining South China Sea. Also, one can note the associated sign reversal in the pole to equatorward temperature gradient over the south Asian region which is in association with the southward migrating quasi-stationary atmospheric heat source during this time of the year. All these changes have led to the withdrawal of the wet summer monsoon rainy season from over a larger part of India and a simultaneous start of the north east monsoon rainfall season over the south east peninsular India. Along with these seasonal shifts that is taking place in the background, the region of anomalous enhanced tropical convection, especially the low frequency component continues to be dominated by a La Nina/ Negative IOD signal over the Maritime Continent and the Eastern equatorial Indian Ocean which is prevailing as a source region for several eastward (Kelvin wave) and westward (Equatorial Rossby waves) propagating moist equatorial waves. Currently, an ER wave is seen propagating westwards over the central equatorial Indian Ocean, whose northern part is causing widespread rainfall in the southern states of India including Tamil Nadu. Global Numerical Weather Prediction Models on the medium range period, indicate that more such ER waves could form and propagate along the equatorial Indian ocean in the days to come as an MJO signal is about to constructively interfere with the low frequency signal. This could eventually lead to an uptick in the genesis of synoptic scale low pressure systems as well over the oceanic regions.

15th October..Todays rain

Rainfall 11pm(Compiled by Abhijit Modak) today on 15-10-25

Sangulwadi 93 mm 

Dudhganga 92 

Deoghar 64 

Vaibhavwadi 62 Walwan 55 Panshet dam 46 Patgaon 44 Sarambal 40 Shirgaon 37 Sawarde 35 Mahabaleshwar 34 KondFanasvane 29 

Ghisar 29 Kumbhi & Davdi 27 

Dajipur 25  Chiplun & Velha 25 

Chatav & Kashedi Kumbhe 21 

Lavel 20 

Oros 19 

Kaas 18 Awalegaon & Varandoli 17 Ratnagiri 14 Bhimashankar & Kharepatan 11 mms. 

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Aashay Measurements Pvt Ltd.

Pune 

DATE 15-10-2025

Time: 6:45 PM 

Rainfall  🌨 🌨

Ambegaon Katraj, Pune = 12.8 mm

Khadakwasla = 12.4 mm

Warje, Pune = 11.8 mm

Garware, Deccan Pune = 6.4 mm 

 --------------------

Mahabaleshwar: 12 mms

Sangli : 12 mms

Ratnagiri: 11 mms

The Greatest Bird Migration on Record! Weather Played a Major Role.

 

The Greatest Bird Migration on Record! Weather Played a Major Role.

14th October Post:

1. Monsoon withdrawn...Yes

2.West Monsoon Wind over...Yes

3. Humidity Down...yes

but 4. Rains over...NO...Post Monsoon Rains expected now...Mumbai is not done with yet !

Mumbai;

17th/18th/19th: Cloudy with light rains expected in various parts of Mumbai. 

20th/21st/22nd: Light to moderate rains with occasional thunder. (Pushing into Diwali)

Pune: After enjoying pleasant nights, clouds coming again

15th/16th: Moderate rains expected in Pune

17th-20th: Moderate to heavy rains in many parts of Pune:

Sambhajinagar: 17th - 21st:Light to moderate rains expected. Please finish cutting fast...Storage to be done with cover.

संभाजीनगर: १७ ते २१ तारखेला: हलक्या ते मध्यम पावसाची अपेक्षा आहे. कृपया लवकर कापणी पूर्ण करा... झाकण ठेवून साठवणूक करावी.

 Monday 13th evening precipitation

 

 12th October...

Monsoon Withdrawal details and withdrawal limit in images 

 See also Author's Page

Harold] Pierce says:

October 11, 2025 at 4:26 PM

There is no such phenomena as anthropogenic climate change because most of the earth is water, rocks, sand, ice and snow. Activities of humans are not going to effect the climate of the vast Pacific ocean, the Andes mountains or the Sahara desert. However, activities of humans in urban areas can effect local climate due to the UHI effect. In some countries, humans can cause local desertification by stripping the land of plants for firewood and for food for animals.

One extreme weather event are Atlantic hurricanes
, the frequency of which has greatly declined since 1900. So far this hurricane season has been a bust.

 11th October 

First Snowfall

Gulmarg, Sonmarg and Rohtang : Season’s First Snowfall

The first snowfall of 2025 has turned the Western Himalayas into a winter wonderland.

Popular hill stations like Gulmarg and Sonmarg in Jammu & Kashmir and Rohtang Pass in Himachal Pradesh have been blanketed in snow, marking onset of winter.

Extract from " Weather &Radar"

 Monsoon arrived in Mumbai/Pune: 26th May...

Monsoon Withdrawal for 

Mumbai/Pune: 10th Oct:

(Total Monsoon rainfall from May - 10th October 

Mumbai Colaba: 2838 mms

                Scruz: 3522 mms 

WSC: 3552 MMS

Pune:1101 mms.)

On Vagaries estimated date...

10th October...Southwest Monsoon has withdrawn from Mumbai, Pune and most of Northern Maharashtra!

SWM withdrawal from Mumbai/North Konkan and Pune/North Madhya Maharashtra declared

Mumbai & Interior Maharashtra, Hot daytime weather likely, lower humidity...but night and early morning can be slightly pleasant.

Mumbai nights can drop to 21/22° 

Humidity will fall to 60%..sweaty feel may decrease.

Pune Nashik Sambhajinagar to 17/18° from 10th to 16th.

*Note: Chances of post monsoon rain/thundershowers  for Mumbai/Pune/Konkan/Ghats from 17th October, so plan Diwali shopping activities accordingly*

Mumbai has slight chances of light post monsoon showers on 17th,18th,19th.

Pune post monsoon rains on 16th,17th,18th a surety.

Sambhajinagar look out for post monsoon rains on 16th to 19th.

Please complete harvesting till then.

10th October Post

Please Read ENSO Scenario on Current Weather Page

A lot is being "heard" about La Nina event possibly occurring this winter...and North India should be prepared for an extreme winter !

On Current Weather Page ...Please read  the explanation and current scenario of La Nina.

Indicates possibility of the event only after December 2025.

-------------------------------------------------------------------- 

Is North India Heading for an Extreme Winter?

A lot is being “heard” about a possible La Niña event developing this winter — with suggestions that it could bring a harsh season for North India.

However, the La Niña indicators currently point to it's start only after December 2025, meaning the most pronounced impact may be felt in January–February 2026.

❄️ Overall Outlook

The North Subcontinent is expected to witness a higher frequency of Western Disturbances, bringing more rain and snow to the northern hills and plains.

This will translate to colder-than-normal conditions, especially in January 2026, which could see multiple cold day and cold wave events.

“Possible La Niña After December — Signs Point to a Colder, Snowier Winter Across North India”

🏔️ North India

Frequent Western Disturbances likely.

Heavy snowfall expected in Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.

Day temperatures in the plains (Punjab, Delhi, Haryana, West U.P., Rajasthan) may hover between 10°C and 15°C.

Night temperatures near freezing in Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan.

Sub-zero readings likely in Churu, Shekhawati, Alwar, and Mount Abu.

Maharashtra

Cold wave conditions will set in late December and continue through January.

Nashik and Pune: Lows below 7°C during cold waves ( January).

Ahilyanagar and Sambhajinagar: Around 8–9°C on coldest nights (January).

Mumbai:

December to remain near-normal with 16–20°C lows.

January may turn notably cooler, dipping to 12–15°C during cold spells.

Gujarat

Cold wave likely from late December through January.

Kutch region: Lows near freezing possible.

Saurashtra and Gujarat region: Minimums of 7–10°C on cold wave nights.

-=================================================================------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

P

 Excessive Rainfall In Sambhajinagar Region in 2025 Monsoon:

Rain Total From June - 7th October

Soegaon 944 mms,

Phulambri: 727 mms,Paithan: 942 mms,

Sillod 872 mms,

Babaran: 855 mms

Sambhajinagar 771 mms, 

Vadod Bazar : 716 mms

२०२५ च्या मान्सूनमध्ये संभाजीनगर विभागात अतिवृष्टी: जून ते ७ ऑक्टोबर या कालावधीत एकूण पाऊस सोयगाव ९४४ मिमी, फुलंब्री: ७२७ मिमी पैठण: ९४२ मिमी, सिल्लोड ८७२ मिमी, बाबरण: ८५५ मिमी संभाजीनगर ७७१ मिमी, वडोद बाजार: ७१६ मिमी

Monsoon Withdrawal for 

Mumbai/Pune: 9th Oct:

(Total Monsoon rainfall from May - 7th October 

Mumbai Colaba: 2831 mms

                Scruz: 3522 mms 

WSC: 3552 MMS

Pune:1089 mms.)

10th October: Rest of Maharashtra.  

10th October: Gujarat State.