Monsoon Analysis by Prof. Ranjan Kelkar , DGM (Retd) IMD
Eight Successive Years of Good Monsoons for India 2017-2024
October 2, 2024
It has been a long-accepted practice of meteorologists in India as well as globally, to compute statistics of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) over the 4-month period of 1 June to 30 September. While nature is not obliged to strictly follow the months of the Gregorian calendar, and it rarely does, meteorologists find this convenient, particularly because it makes comparisons easier. It does not mean that May and October never contribute to the monsoon rainfall, of course they do, but the ISMR is a useful indicator of the overall monsoon performance.
In a statistical sense, the 2024 monsoon has come to a close just a couple of days back, and the ISMR has been 8 per cent above its long term average and very close to the official predictions. An 8 per cent excess rainfall for the country as a whole is not something that happens often. It could be called a “great” monsoon if a non-meteorological word was permissible.
What is also important is the fact that for the past seven years, the monsoon rainfall has been normal, meaning that it has consistently remained within the margin of plus or minus 10 per cent of the long term average. The year 2024 is the eighth year in this series of good or satisfactory monsoons.
In the years from 2011 to 2016, India’s annual food grain production had remained stable around 250 to 260 million metric tonnes. In 2017, with a good monsoon, it increased to 275 mmt, in 2018 to 285, in 2020 to 298, in 2021 to 311, and in 2023 to a record breaking figure of 330 mmt.
From the viewpoint of the nation’s food security, this steady rise is very significant. It is a result of sustained efforts in multiple areas, but it has once again brought to light the direct hold that the monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has on Indian agriculture. It also needs to be noted with caution that long epochs of successive good monsoon years have been very few historically, and it will be worthwhile to attempt predictions of monsoon rainfall over longer time scales.
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