15th October:
NE Wind directions show a gradual transition of change as the SW Monsoon winds have diminished.
The Low Pressure (BB 14) in the Bay will strengthen into a depression and cross T.N. Coast by 17th. Proper N.E.Monsoon set in will be established from 17th. However, Pre Monsoon showers in association with the system BB 14 has commenced as seen in the map
(IMD Statement on 15th October::Southwest monsoon has withdrawn from the entire country today, the 15th October 2024. Simultaneously, the Northeast monsoon rainfall activity has commenced over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala today, in association with A Well Marked Low Pressure Area lies over central part of south Bay of Bengal.)
As the withdrawal of the SWM has begun with the change in winds, the South West Monsoon season will be over by 17th. October.
As the BB-14 system moves inland into Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and entire South Peninsula will get thunder showers from 16th to 19th October. We can associate these rains with the advancing North East Monsoon system.
Mumbai: The transition of season change has started with reversal of winds. As the Monsoon withdraws by 17th, Mumbai can get the few local evening thunder showers from 16th to 19th October. Post monsoon rains in Mumbai have been witnessed before.
Pune: Getting warmer, but local thunder showers will continue till 18th October.
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