7th September
Indications of timely Monsoon withdrawal from extreme NW India.
Normal date is 17th September.
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Vagaries' expects, along with latest NWP model forecasts, a timely withdrawal of monsoon rains from extreme North Western parts of India and adjoining Pakistan by the third week of September.
Lower tropospheric anticyclones/ridges are trying to make frequent attempts to establish over NW India.These are indications seen.
This could could interact with the weakening seasonal background monsoon circulation to initiate dry processes associated with monsoon withdrawal.
Until then, the monsoon circulation and moist processes will continue over central and eastern parts of India (core monsoon zone) leading to marginally enhanced rainfall in these regions.
All India cumulative rainfall rainfall departure in the past 24 hours has started decreasing and stood at + 7.8 % yesterday.
Compiled by Vag.Gokul
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