Sunday, December 03, 2023

Cyclone Michanung will steadily intensify till 4 December, landfall on 5 December

Cyclone Michaung currently maintaining an intensity of 35 knots as per IMD.

Currently, low wind shear and robust poleward outflow supported by high SSTs and moderate ocean heat content will favor the cyclone to steadily intensify till the evening/night of 4 December. It is likely to reach a peak intensity of 90-100kmph by the night of 4 December. As of now, rapid intensification chances are low.

This is the 4th cyclone of the post-monsoon season in the north Indian Ocean. This is the highest number of cyclones in the north Indian Ocean post-monsoon season after 2019.

Figure: Ocean heat content (kJ/cm2) along with the forecasted path of the cyclone. Source: CIRA

Figure: Vertical wind shear as on 3 December 1130IST (Green lines indicate low shear which is favourable for cyclone intensification). Source: CIMSS

From 4 December night, due to land interaction and increased vertical wind shear, the cyclone is likely to stop intensifying. Latest model guidance suggests that coastal Andhra Pradesh is likely to get rain in excess of 200-250mm on 4-5 December.
Figure: Rainfall (mm) forecast by IMD-GFS model

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