Tuesday, September 06, 2022

Weather outlook for this week - Tuesday 6th September to Friday 9th September: Monsoon reviving gradually!

A cyclonic circulation in mid levels (~700 hPa) near Kerala coast expected to bring moderate rain/thundershowers along Kerala and Karnataka coasts and Ghats. 

700 hPa winds

Wind instability and the effect of this cyclonic circulation is causing heavy thunderstorms near Bangalore region and interior Tamil Nadu. This can persist for another 2 days. 

The earlier estimated low pressure area BB-12 may form in central Bay of Bengal by 7th/8th September and track west-northwest, towards north Andhra Pradesh coast. The monsoon trough which is close to Himalayan foothills, will move south towards the Bay low. This can increase rainfall for central India as well as set-up an offshore trough along west coast enhancing rains along konkan and Goa by the end of the week. 

Mumbai :

FAQ: Is the rainy season ending ?...No hurry...

We can get Rain/thundershowers in some areas, along with warm and humid weather. Rainfall likely to increase Thursday 8th, onwards 

Pune: Rain/thundershowers likely through the week, warm and humid, but turning pleasant after rain. Moderate to heavy thundershowers likely in some parts of the city and district. 

Interior konkan (Thane/Palghar districts) and Ghats have more chance of heavier thundershowers for next 2 days. 

Madhya Maharashtra belt of Nashik, Dhule, Jalgaon, Ahmednagar, Pune, Satara, Sangli, Kolhapur, Solapur districts can get moderate thundershowers. Heavy rain in some localized areas is likely. 

Marathwada region of Aurangabad, Jalna, Beed, Parbhani, Latur, Nanded to get light to moderate rain/thundershowers during this period. Some localized heavy showers possible.   

Vidarbha region to also get light rain in some parts, more chance of heavier rain towards end of the week once BB-12 moves inland. 

Heavier rain along konkan coast may possibly occur by the coming weekend, as westerlies strengthen, giving peak monsoon feel once again. 

Gujarat region may see increase in rainfall from/after Friday. 

Forecasts can change to some extent and not all places will receive well spread rainfall (given the thunderstorm nature of the rain). 

More updates as BB-12 develops. 

Monsoon withdrawal from west Rajasthan not expected anytime soon, not before mid September at least. 

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