Monday, September 12, 2022

Posted 12th September evening:

Wet week ahead for M.P, Gujarat Region and Maharashtra

With the West tracking of BB 12, an increase in rainfall is eminent in M.P, Gujarat Region, and Vidharbh , North Madhya Maharashtra and Konkan from the week 13th thru 16th.

Week from Monday 12th to Friday 16th

Monsoon present still..Mostly rainfall gaining intensity from Thursday 15th.

Mumbai: Wet week,Seeing gradual increased rainfall from Monday Night thru Tuesday 13th and Wednesday 14th.. Peak heavy ⛆on Thursday 15th. Accumalated rainfall of week could touch >180 mms. {Comfortable to increase  the water stock to 100%. ☺}

Goa: Good showers  from Monday thru the week. Estimated cumulative around 120 mms.

Pune: Normal Pune rainfall during this week. May not get much in intensity. Accumulation of week around 40 mms.

Jalgaon : Moderate thundershowers, picking up on Thursday and Friday.  Rain 🌧 of around >100 mms will accumulate this week.

Bharuch: Starting from Monday 12th.on a wet note...and further spell of heavy rains on Friday 16th...can accumulate 75 mms during the week


sset said...

Stubborn series of north bay systems will delay swm withdrawal delay nem onset. Excess rains for Maharashtra gujarat drought for south east India Tamilnadu south andhra south karnataka

NilaY Wankawala said...

Credit Australian Government Bureau of Metereology

Issued 13 September 2022

The latest Climate Driver Update and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

La Niña under way in the tropical Pacific

The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has been raised to LA NIÑA.

Key atmospheric and oceanic indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show an established La Niña. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have been cooling since June and are now at La Niña thresholds. Atmospheric indicators including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade wind strength, and equatorial cloudiness are also displaying patterns typical of a La Niña event.

Models indicate this La Niña event may peak during the spring and return to neutral conditions early in 2023. La Niña events increase the chances of above-average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia during spring and summer.

The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues. The IOD index has satisfied negative IOD thresholds (i.e. at or below −0.4 °C) since June, with the latest weekly value being −0.8 °C. All surveyed climate models agree that negative IOD conditions are likely to continue into late spring. A negative IOD event is typically associated with above average spring rainfall for much of Australia. When a La Niña and negative IOD combine, it further increases the likelihood of above average rainfall over Australia, particularly in the eastern half of the continent.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently in a positive phase and is likely to be mostly positive for the coming three months. During the spring months, a positive SAM has a wetting influence for parts of eastern New South Wales and far eastern Victoria, but a drying influence for western Tasmania.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) continues to show a weak signal with most models suggesting it will remain weak for at least the next seven days. A weak MJO is unlikely to have much impact on Australian climate.

Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C for the 1910–2020 period. Southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades. There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia.

ENSO Outlook

Our ENSO Outlook provides
up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.

Current status: LA NIÑA

More information:

Media enquiries: (03) 9669 4057

Next update expected on 27 September 2022

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