vagaries© of the weather.blog written by rajesh kapadia.concentrating on meteorology of the Indian sub continent and extreme world weather since 55 years
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850 windpattern over Mumbai is interestingSeems moisture incursion happening even north to it and overnight rains in Ahmedabad/Gandhinagar monsoon type from South.
Rains in Ahmedabad and surrounding maybe due to UAC effect. The broad UAC is currently and unfortunately bypassing Mumbai coast area and significantly affecting Marathwada & Madhya Mah in positive way. Hope the monsoon enters Mumbai by tonight as the delay is causing lot of heartburns... eagerly awaiting for typical Mumbai monsoon rains.
IMD declares SWM upto Alibag
India's annual monsoon rains have covered nearly half of the country and conditions are favourable for further advancement into the central and western parts this week, a weather department official said on Monday.Read Further athttps://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/monsoon-rains-cover-half-of-the-country-imd/article28124000.eceHalf of the country covered says IMD and Mumbai is still awating for SWM to set in- A phenomenon never heared off-
Looks like for a short time being SWM is following NEM style - always weak and failing !
Nilay - this proves that Nature is supreme. We are peanuts in front of the almighty Nature. It ahs its own way to balancing things. Humans can just forecast & pray that the rains are more than normal in all regions of country particularly when last couple of years were not good.
Sir,please forecast for this week too,will monsoon remain subdued
CREDIT AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEREOLOGYIssued 25 June 2019 The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website. Positive Indian Ocean Dipole likely to drive Australian weather during winter to spring ENSO OutlookOur ENSO Outlook providesup-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing. Current status: INACTIVEThe immediate likelihood of El Niño developing has passed, meaning the ENSO Outlook has been reset to INACTIVE. While the possibility of El Niño can't be completely ruled out for 2019, the tropical Pacific Ocean is more likely than not to remain in an ENSO-neutral phase over the coming months. Model outlooks indicate a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to drive Australia's weather for much of the rest of 2019, meaning the likelihood of a drier than average winter–spring remains. Oceanic and atmospheric indicators are now largely at ENSO-neutral levels. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have cooled over the past fortnight but remain slightly warmer than average. Cloudiness near the Date Line and trade winds have been close to neutral over recent weeks, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has hovered around El Niño threshold values over the past month. With little anomalous warmth in the ocean sub-surface, most climate models indicate the tropical Pacific will continue shifting further away from El Niño thresholds through the winter. In the Indian Ocean, waters remain average to cooler than average in eastern parts, and warmer than average further west; a pattern typical of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). While the IOD index fell below the positive IOD threshold this week, climate models indicate this is likely to be temporary, with positive IOD values forecast to persist through winter and into spring. Typically, a positive IOD brings below average winter-spring rainfall, above average temperatures, and an earlier start to the fire season for southern and central Australia. More informationMedia enquiries: (03) 9669 4057 firstname.lastname@example.org Next update expected on 9 July 2019
IMD has declared Maharashtra including Mumbai covered today
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