Sunday, September 11, 2016

Posted on Sunday 11th Night:
Vagaries works out  a Medium/Long Term Forecast for its reference thrice a week .Long Term Forecast is hardly ever put up on Vagaries due to uncertainty and varying changes., but 
Judging form the anxiety about the rains, Vagaries is today deviating and putting up a "rare Medium Term forecast".(Subject to revision).

1. South West Monsoon likely to withdraw from West Rajasthan and Sindh by 13th September. Temperatures likely to rise in Sindh.

2. 12th Monday - 14th Wednesday, rains likely in Vidharbh, South Chattisgarh, Odisha. Kashmir and HP get rains from a WD.

3. From Thursday 15th/ Friday 16th-Sunday 18th ...Rains likely in Interior Maharashtra, Konkan, NI Karnataka, Southern Peninsula, Central India (M.P.) and Southern U.P. Substantial increase in rains in Madhya Maharashtra (Pune/Nasik) and Goa, Konkan (Mumbai and towns around).
Thunder showers in Mumbai Friday-Sunday.

4. From Saturday 17th, for a copule of days, rains in Saurashtra and rest Gujarat except Kutch. Rains increasing Saturday/Sunday in West Bengal/Odisha.

This will reduce the All India Monsoon Deficit after 20th September....Current deficit -5%

Mumbai Lakes Position: 97% full, and having storage of 1405 Mcum out of full capacity of 1441 Mcum. Translating, we have 1 year water stock, i.e. upto 15th September 2017. Lakes Info credit Vagarian Jayesh Mehta.


Paresh said...

Thanks Rajeshbhai! It'll definitely put many queries to rest.
Glad to see Mumbai's lake capcity being in a much better shape than last year.


Unknown said...

Glad to see something for saurashtra in coming days....many areas of saurashtra need atleast one good spell of rain before withdraw of monsoon....overall dissapointed monsoon this year for 60% parts of saurashtra.....

NilaY Wankawala said...

Even going against your practice not to have a long term forecast, you have given a long term forecast which will certainly calm down many tensed nerves. Also you have been consistent in your forecast by saying it will wipe off 5% deficit prevailing now which you have mentioned earlier too that you don't think this season will end up in defeciency. Mumbai really blessed to have atleast a year's supply in store. Thanks a ton to all contributors who are constantly busy in updating all of us here @ vagaries on data and figures through out the season.

Rajesh said...

I have mentioned substantial increase in rains for Mumbai and North Konkan towns from Thursday. As, an upper air trough is expected thru Mumbai from 65E to 90E, with an embedded UAC off North Konkan , we can expect heavy showers for Mumbai from Thursday 15th - 18th Sunday. Difficult to give amount of rain today, but, could be around 90 mms from Wednesday night to Friday night and another 200/225 mms from Friday night to Sunday night.
I will give proper estimate on Wednesday.
Pune could get the most of the rains from Wednesday to Friday.

VISHWAS said...

Sir what have forecast for ganpati visarjan. There ia heavy Rain or light.

NilaY Wankawala said...

Credit : Australian government Bureau of meteorology .

Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 13 September 2016

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.
Negative Indian Ocean Dipole dominates Australian climate
A surge in strength of the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), combined with a La Niña–like pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean and seas around Australia, is strongly influencing Australian climate.

In the Indian Ocean, the negative IOD has strengthened, after easing somewhat during August. The weekly IOD index is close to the record values observed in July. Despite this recent re-intensification, climate models continue to suggest the IOD will weaken in the coming months, returning to neutral values before the end of 2016. During a negative IOD much of eastern Australia typically experiences above-average spring rainfall.

In the Pacific Ocean, although some La Niña–like patterns are present, there remains limited connection between the atmosphere and ocean, and hence La Niña thresholds are yet to be met. A La Niña WATCH remains in place as some climate models indicate a late and weak La Niña is possible.

During La Niña, northern and eastern Australia typically experience above-average spring rainfall, with the first rains of the wet season typically arriving earlier than average in northern Australia. At present, warmer than average seas surrounding Australia—which more typically occur during La Niña—mean some La Niña–like impacts may occur even if thresholds are not exceeded.

Next update expected on 27 September 2016

Anonymous said...

This year too, the withdrawal will be delayed in NW India, won't it Rajesh Sir? With the monsoon trough passing through U.P. and a stubborn cyclonic circulation persisting in SW Rajasthan and adjoining areas, it seems unlikely for the withdrawal to commence any time soon in the region(s).

Aks said...

Yes this is extremely good news if the forecast materializes. The probability is high as almost all models are in sync with this forecast for heavy rains in Mumbai-Konkan-South Gujarat belt. This will be the icing on the cake for this season. I am hoping for a last good productive round of monsoon for Mah-Guj states which has experienced deficient rainfall since last few weeks.

Weather outlook till Friday 31st March - As we calculated in mid March after the Heat spell,  remaining days of March stayed below 40c in In...