Saturday, June 04, 2016

Posted Saturday Night ( 4th June):

  • > The UAC off the A.P. Coast in the Bay (at 500hpa) is to cross the North A.P. /Odisha coast on 5th, and move West. It will track Westwards, and merge around the 7th with:
  • > An UAC in the trough off the West coast off the Karnataka Coast.
  • > The existing trough off the West Coast initially strengthens from Karnataka to Kerala with an embedded UAC on the 5th/6th.

The Monsoon can advance into coastal Karnataka and S.I. Kanataka on the 6th.
Pre Monsoon thunder Showers in Goa from Saturday, increasing on Monday 6th and Tuesday 7th.

  • > The trough strengthens, and will extend from Mumbai to Kerala by the 9th of June.

From 5th,As a result,Pre Monsoon thunder Showers will occur in Interior Karnataka and South Konkan, South Madhya Maharashtra  and 
From 6th June.extend to North Konkan and North Madhya Mah and Marathwada (which got good showers on Saturday)

Sunday 5th: Partly cloudy with Thunder developments in the Eastern Sky (Where lightning flashes will occur)  by evening. Rain lkely in some parts .
Monday 6th/Tuesday 7th: Thunder showers in parts of Mumbai by evening. Accompanied by gusty winds (Local). 

Pune: Heating upto 38c on Sunday and Monday with some Local showers in parts. Heavy thunder shower on Monday 6th and again on Tuesday 7th. Maybe around 20 mms on Tuesday.


Maharashtra Weather said...

What is forecast for Nashik region? Can Nashik also get good rain?

Rajesh said...

Shivkumar: Nasik region can get thunder showers after 7th/8th June. Rains will increase more after 10th.

Karan Kumbhar said...

Could you please tell about possibility of reasons in Kutch region !

Karan Kumbhar said...

Edit that to rains*

Rawat said...

Sir,what about New Delhi and north

sset said...

Navi Mumbai Belapur first thunders with rain. In sync with vagaries forecast! Once set usual Mumbai rains will be major discussion for next 4 months... I had been to beautiful Mahabaleshwar a month back ... amazed to see source of mighty Krishna rivers forests,deep valleys..Coming monsoon will soon regain glory.

Unknown said...

Rajesh sir,first heavy thunderstorm with squall in nagothane near roha.what amount of rain do you expect in the roha,pen region in the coming days?

Jay said...

Rajesh sir, why is the imd not showing monsoon progressing into the peninsula?

Vijayanand said...



gottigere - 53.5
arakere : 86.5
btm layout: 65
koramangala : 53
kumar swamy layout : 135 mm
Singasandra : 40
kengeri : 22
konankunte: 72
anjanapura: 44


Vijayanand said...

The data shared is two days rain. JUNE3 AND JUNE4

NilaY Wankawala said...

Sir your views on imd monsoon northern limit map . I guess imd standards to declare monsoon as set has been achieved at many places (states) but imd is reluctant to show. Any reasons?

Shreyas Dhavale said...

All parameters (rain, wind and OLR) required for monsoon seem to have been met...but don't know why IMD is still not declaring the onset. IMD has not declared onset over Sri Lanka as well...whereas the Sri Lanka met department had declared it in May itself.

Hrishikesh said...

Had a rain shower of modera Intensity at Andheri Mumbai western suburbs

Rajesh said...

The reason for IMD not progressing Monsoon ...well, I suppose they had declared earlier that Monsoon will hit Kerala around 7th June +- 4 days. Later on 2nd June IMD said Monsoon will be on Kerala in 5 days. So, I presume they will declare Monsoon over Kerala on 7th or 8th June ??

Still time for rains in Kutch,,Kutch is the last "station" in India for SWM...around Last days of June/early July.

NilaY Wankawala said...

Thanks sir for a quick note on imd standards.... :-)

Vinod Desai said...

We got a shower in malad.

Anonymous said...

Sir, when can we expect monsoon to arrive in Kanpur and adjoining parts of central and west Uttar Pradesh?

Rajesh said...

Message for Potey ji: As far as Akola region is concerned, i see isolated thunder showers in some parts, and hot days for the next 3 days. Thursday onwards, possibly, we may see increasing intensity of thunder showers.
I would ask the local farmers to wait now this week and see, if there is good rainfall next thurs/fri sat, as to ow much moisture is accumulated in the soil. We can take a call for sowing on Wednesday.
Accordingly told also to Aurangabad farmers.

Rajesh said...

Ishan: Not very easy to give date for Kanpur and West U.P. today, but seeing the long term scene, and forecast as per the current trend, I would expect Kanpur and West U.P. to get Monsoon proper around 26th -28th June. Pre Monsoon showers are going on in parts of West U.P, but i would say more pre monsoon rain around 23rd-24th June. That is my view.

Unknown said...

OLR - outgoing long wave radiation -> low OLR favours convection while high OLR does not - why? Amusing term.

Rajesh said...

Priya: OLR is electromagnetic radiation emitted from Earth and its atmosphere out to space in the form of thermal radiation.
The OLR is affected by clouds and dust in the atmosphere, which tend to reduce it to below clear sky values.The OLR is affected by the Earth's skin temperature, skin surface emissivity, atmospheric temperature, water vapour profile, and cloud cover.

Unknown said...

Many thanks, Rajeshbhai....surely will wait fr update!

Unknown said...

Hope this season brings cheer n smilles to those who need it most!


northpole said...

Sir, when can we expect monsoon to arrive in bhopal and indore ?

Rajesh said...

santosh verma: Just mentioned progress towards this rate and current trend, M.P. should get proper monsoon after 17th. Pre monsoon rains may start 3/4 days earlier.

 3rd June Vagaries of the Weather...situation and scenario is contradicting all parameters of the Monsoon.  1. Very favourable SW winds for ...