Thursday, June 18, 2015

 Posted Friday Noon:
Mumbai Scruz measured 36 mms in 3 hrs till 11.30 am IST Friday...
The rains continue into Friday in Mumbai, and as seen from the wind charts, Mumbai is having a dual effect of 700  mb winds (SW) and now, a rush of W/SW winds at sea level, due to effect of the Bay Low , BB-1. Winds are rushing at sea level almost thru the peninsula into BB-1.

Friday Mumbai will get heavy downpours , and may relent, ease out at night. But day time showers will aggravate the flooding scene, as will measure around 75-90 mms by 8.30 pm. Night will see lesser rains.
Saturday will see intermittent showers, but may measure less at around 45-50 mms in the day till 8.30 pm.
Sunday, will also be similar to Saturday, but rainfall increasing on Sunday night.
Saturday and Sunday (night included) may see around 200 mms accumulated till Monday morning.

Heavy rains expected in  A.P.,Telengana and adjoining Vidharbh this weekend.
Estimates of all Models Washed off...Mumbai does it Again !!
Rainfall in last 24 hrs (ended 8.30 am) and Seasonal Total...Santa Cruz 283.4 mms ( 536.4 mms), Vagaries 221 mms 526 mms) and Colaba 208.8 mms  ( 514.5 mms).

Ratnagiri 135 mms and Panaji Goa 102 mms in same period.Aurangabad got a downpour on Thursday Night dumping 59 mms in 2 hours.

Posted Thursday Night:

BB-1 Deepens to 996 mb in the same position...
UAC in the Arabian Sea SW of Gujarat coast also persists...Now descended to 850 mb level.

Mumbai : .as the UAC Deepened, we see a strong gush of SW winds at all levels (upto 700) hitting the North Konkan Coast. We also get Vagarians reporting heavy rains in the Northern Outer Townships like Mira Road. 

Thursday saw more rains than estimated..83 mms average in 12 hrs...Expecting another average of 40 mms Thursday night.would bring an average of 125 mms by 8.30 Friday for Mumbai.( seeing the vast area Mumbai covers, we take an average of Colaba and Scruz readings.)

The Movement and behaviour of the Arabian Sea UAC will directly affect the Mumbai weather next 3 days...but, as current indications show...A wet Weekend
Friday/Saturday/Sunday Mumbai may see very frequent intermittent heavy showers, with gusty winds. I would put a cumulative average rainfall of around 190-210 mms (for Friday/Saturday/Sunday).

Thursday's Rainfall Thursday till 8.30 pm IST (12hrs)
Mumbai Scruz 96 mms
Mumbai Colaba 67 mms
Vagaries 68 mms
Thane AWS 48 mms
Ratnagiri 67 mms
Panaji Goa 53 mms
Akola 14 mms
Vizag 27 mms
Bhubaneshwar 7 mms
Rajkot 9 mms

Till 5.30 pm IST
Alibag 19 mms
Mahableshwar 24 mms
Honavar 19 mms

No rains in Surat and Pune till 8.30 pm.

Seasonal Rainfall Totals (in mms) till 8.30 am Thursday (Brackest indicate same date total in 2014)

Mumbai Colaba 305  (54)
Scruz 253  (80)
Ratnagiri  393  (138)
Pune  82 (12)

Ghats in Maharashtra
Koyna - 45 (annual average 5000 mm)
Matheran - 85 (annual average 5500 mm)
Mahabaleshwar -175 (annual average 6000 mm)   (133)
Lamaj - 177 (annual average ~ 6000 mm)
Patherpunj - 302 (annual average over 6000 mm)
Bhmashankar - 195  (annual average 7000 mm)
Gaganbawada - 307 (annual average 6000 mm)
Amboli - 326 (annual average 7000 mm)
Dajipur- 451 (annual average 6000 mm)
Kitwade - 108 (annual average 6300 mm)

Ghats in Karnataka
Agumbe - 377 (annual average 7500 mm)
Hulikal - 327 (annual average 8000 mm)
Mastikatte - 261 (annual average 7500 mm)

Ghats in Kerala
Neeriyamangalam - 148 (annual average 6000 mm)
Kuttiyadi - 321 (annual average 5500 mm)

Ghats Rainfall courtesy Pradeep John.

Rains approaching Hyderabad,,seeing rains Thursday Night..


Rajesh said...

santosh Verma; I expect rainfall to increase in Bhopal from Monday..and maybe around 60 mms on Mon/Tuesday and Wed cummulative

Karan Kumbhar said...

though coast is receiving good rainfall, the ghats are getting less rain . Even interior maharashtra is getting negligible rain .
your take ?

Rajesh said...

Faraz Ali Khan: Still Sindh will have to wait for Monsoon..till end June. But, South Sindh coast will get some light rains on Sunday and Monday.Light rain or clouding possible in Karachi on Sunday/Monday.

Sarvesh said...

What is Mumbai avg rain per year?

Abhijit Modak said...

Mumbai Scruz recorded 124 mms rainfall till 11.30pm today.

Junaid said...

New Panvel seasonal total till 8:30 am 18 th June stands at 147 mm (Private reading)

SVT said...

Once again personally think Mumbai could get 150 mm rains in next 24 hours and total of more than 300 mm rains till Monday. Combination of UAE and bay low dumping lots of rains in Konkan area.

Vinod Desai said...

And it us still continuing..sud cross 150 mm by morning.

SVT said...

@Rajesh @Abhijit From where you getting latest Mumbai rains figures? MCMG website which was giving rain figure last year is not working for me. Please Share, Thanks in advance.

Abhijit Modak said...

Mumbai Scruz recorded massive 254 mms rainfall till 5.30am today!!

sset said...

Navi Mumbai also no less - must be above 200mm in 24 hrs... raining like roaring angry waterfalls for past 48 hours... at this rate june itself may touch 1000mmm - repeat of 2013 june..lakes may start briming by june itself ... actually no models predicted these extreme rains???

Vinod Desai said...

Trains are late ..seems harbour line is not running..

SVT said...

Hi Abhijeet! From Where yo get latest rains for Mumbai? Can you give link please. MCGM website used to cover Mumbai rains last 24 hours. Not anymore.

sset said...

By the way when will Mumbai rains stop??? Nothing less than Cherrapunji - already water falls - famous Pandavkada in Kharghar is in full force... Deafening noise of rain force is real natures wonder...

Unique monsoon pattern - still I feel southern Indian place are more drought prone.. Entire South East India (Rayalseema,TN,south interior KAR) - reason being it rains only outside monsoon season - april/may only if LWD is present and NEM if it is not failure - almost 90% probability is failure for both LWD and NEM... Bangalore rains have stopped completely now needs to wait till NEM...

Rawat said...

Two different story of two mega cities of india, mumbai massive rains and continuing while Delhi looks for another 40℃ with humidity.

Srivathsa said...

283 mm in Santa Cruz till 830 am. 536 mm in June already. Looks like more on the way over the weekend

Abhijit Modak said...

@ SSET. Don't you feel every monsoon you repeat the same story. JUNE TO SEPT is West coast heavy Rain period which is normal. Water falls should start in Ghats as they help in Dam filling all across Peninsular India.

Tamil Nadu & SI Karnataka are rain shadow region in SWM which is also normal. Bangalore avg June rainfall is just 100 mm. So how you can expect 200 mm in 1 day there ?? Every place has it's own features as per geographical location. So don't repeatedly compare Konkan rains with SI Karnataka or TN..

Rajesh said...

SVT: We pick up the normal figures from IMD site. But the latest figures are obtained directly from IMD. Vagaries' contacts and known officers in dept give the info. There are quite a few from IMD , Mumbai, Pune and Chennai and maybe other stations who are aware of Vagaries and read it.

Dattaraj said...

Hyderabad estimation seems to be gone wrong. Hyderabad did receive some showers yesterday. But it is less than 10mm and not as estimated of 70mm. What's gone wrong ?

Dattaraj said...

About less rains in Bangalore from SSET.. It has already received around 50% of annual rainfall by end of May. You ask any Bangalore person, they say enough rains for now.

sset said...

Apologies Abhijitji - issue was not comparing quantum of rains but probability of failure of rains over SE India and other interior southern places due to dependency on pre-monsoon LWD and NEM... While other place of India depend on normal SWM season (which is at least deterministic)

SVT said...

Thanks. So no rain figures by BMC this season? Mumbai must have got 350 mm rains in last 30 hours. I am expecting another 250mm in next 48 hours. Are you going to update forecast for mumbai in next 48 hours?

Rajesh said...

Dattaraj: Hyderabad missed out on the showers, though they were in the vicinity. Seeing heavy rains in Telengana and Hyderabad next 2 days.

Atul said...

Pune got rains in the morning but now its almost no signs of rain :( also as per this site, ghat section has also not getting rain today. Your forecast or rain in pune of friday was on spot, rain started in early morning but it has stopped around 8. What is your forecast on ghat section? And what would be the reason behind ghat section not getting enough rains.


sset said...

Mumbai beats all previous record for wettest june (highest rain in 24hrs!!! including 2013 june. Santa Cruz created the record with 181mm on june 11 2013, 184.4mm on June 12 2011, 209.6mm on June 24 2007. And now as per vagaries all time high of 290mm on june 19 2015. Mumbai is almost now 600mm and with 10 more days to go reaching 1000mm will be at ease.

SVT said...

Finally rains have eased a bit. Still heavy rains forecast for next 48 hours.

sset said...

Mumbai beats almost all places of coastal KARNATAKA/KERALA excluding KARWAR but next 2 days Mumbai will win race... Mangalore,Augumbe are all lagging...

Vijith Menon said...

Rajesh Sir- Why so less rains at the lakes area supplying water to Mumbai. Will it rain heavily there??

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