Tuesday, August 07, 2012

Mumbai Page Updated with Wed. Morning Readings v/s Estimate.

On Tuesday, the UAC at 850 hpa moved Northwards, to ultimately merge with the Monsoon axis. 
That means, by moving North, it has avoided the Gujarat region, which it was expected to move into on Wednesday.Surat and Bharuch seem to have also been by-passed. 

Rainfall has now shifted along the axis. Delhi NCR can expect good precipitation along with adjoining Rajasthan region. Again, rains may creep into H.P. hills.
The axis has slid slightly southwards along the Rajasthan/Delhi/ UP and North Orissa line.

The 2 day very heavy rainfall patch in Coastal Karnatak and adjoining North Kerala ( Vythri =223  mms) and Southern most Konkan (figures put up by Pradeep)was surprising and largely unexpected.

A brief technical Analysis of the 2 day downppour (without going into too much details):

Though vagaries had mentioned of a "lift" in the trough (on Tuesday), which actually occured on Sunday/Monday, the strengthening was to the extent of vertical depth of -40. This was very breifly mentioned in vagaries on Monday.But, charts show, which ,frankly, i studied after the event, the vorticity at 850 hpa level 80. (raised to -5).

On seeing the maps of Sunday/Monday, i find the wind shear to be unusually low in the coastal Karnataka region, and the Lifted Condensation Level is seen at only 200 meters, and free Convection level fell to 300 meters. This aided with a off shore favourable CAPE, as the charts show, brought in a spell of very heavy rains ranging from 300-500 mms/day, as Preadeep has shown.

Let me admit, this is just an after "the happening "analysis. It was never pre-empted nor foreseen. 
Such is the suddenness and Magic (and Vagaries) of Weather! Keeps you always interested and on your toes. 
Is full of Surprises for the Weather enthusiasts!

Massive Rains in Karnataka (Drought to Floods within 3 days)...From Pradeep.
The monsoon that played traunt for more than a year is in full vigour in western Karnataka reviving the lost hopes of people. The Malnad belt of the state from Belgaum district to Kodagu and coastal areas received heavy rains. Karnataka as a state recording a whopping 175% surplus across the four geographical regions in the last 24-hours ending 8.30am today. Malnad and coastal parts including Dakshina Kannada bore the brunt recording 360% and 152% departure respectively from normal weighted average while south-interior and north-interior Karnataka received 86% and 34% surplus rainfall.

24 hrs Rainfall Figures

Some of the 24hrs rainfall in mm ending 8.30 am on 07.08.2012 are as follows

Karauru - 337
Indabettu - 308
Mastikatte - 265
Yadur - 238
Hulikal - 235
Kammardi - 229
Mani - 228 
Nilkund 225
Nariyandada - 222
Thirthahalli - 210
Umbalamani - 203
Devanahalli - 203
Bandal - 203
Kollur - 201
Kalasa - 200
Kalasa - 197
Sringeri - 196
Meguda - 196
Hebri - 190
Perdur- 190
Siddapura - 187 
Subramanya - 187
Vanagur - 187
Dharmasthala - 180 
Hosanagara - 180
Jayapura - 180
Koppa - 180 
Talaguppa - 170
Agumbe - 172

Other Massive Rainfall Figures
Some of the other massive rainfall stats in past two days are as follows as on 8.30 am on 06.08.2012 -

Birunani - 559 mm
Parakatageri - 508 mm
Teralu - 305 - mm 

Further, Nagara recorded 746 mm rainfall in 48 hrs ending 05.08.2012 

Bisile, Kempuhole, Moorukannugudda, Kenchanakumari and the Bajemane reserve forest received 600 mm of rainfall in the 36 hours ending 05.08.2012

Dam Levels 
Linganamakki reservoir has reached 1,779 feet against the maximum level of 1,819 feet
Kabini stood at 2,277.35 feet as against the maximum of 2,284 feet.
Harangi reservoir reached 2,856.79 feet against the full level of 2,859 feet
Bhadra reservoir too increased to 150.50 tmc ft against maximum of 186 feet 


Pavan said...

Ha ha! More than those farmr and people over there the anonym commenting on ths blog may be over-joyed by ths post @sset, stil unhappy blore stil dry

Pavan said...

Drizzling in pune frm evening some small sharp showers in some parts of d city may be upto 10mm

sset said...

Good for poor farmers and for all people - water essence of life. But interior Karanataka (Bangalore,Mysore,Mandya,Kolar....major agricultural areas still without any rains)

Thanks to Pradeep for prompt highs and lows!!!
Meanwhile it seems for 3 consequitive year Maharashtra overtook Augumbe -- and last year Amboli overtook Cherrapunji.

Abhijit Modak said...

But what made such heavy rain event in less period of time in South Konkan & South Maharashtra bordering area like Kitwade, Dajipur belt ? And now Western & coastal & some part South Interior Karnataka and even North Kerala places like Kannur dist hilly regions too. So whether strengthening of off shore trough of west coast is responsible !

El-nino slightly moving towards positive, MJO not in wet phase & IOD too negative. So we were estimating that August is going to be disappointing with deficient rains .
But actually as per Pradeep rain figures Monsoon is breaking records with high rains in low period of time in first week of August (i.e from 1 Aug to 7 Aug 2012 period). So in short August rains are started with bangs !

Now really waiting for such heavy rains for North Konkan stations..

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Pradeep . Do you have Bhimashankar place rain figures, which is on 3500ft height on western ghat region?

venkatesh said...

>>Kabini stood at 2,277.35 feet as against the maximum of 2,284 feet

Now it has reached 2282 feet.Just two feet need to reach brim

Shitij said...

Sky is completely cloudy but no rain till now in Surat.

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday reduced in rain intensity noted here in Badlapur. So in past 24hrs, 15mm rain measured here.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am)

Anonymous said...

Yes SSET we know bangalore is dry, please give us a break !

Vijayanand said...

Rail and Road connection severely affected in karnataka ghat section.

Finally good rains have blessed all major water source in karnataka.
I am unable to find current KRS level?
Hope its level has increased.

Vijayanand said...

Can any one share rainfall stats for mangalore , udupi and karwar from June 1st of this year.
Pradeep,if you have kindly share.

For the month of june, I was following IMD rain stats for coastal cities.
Till June 25th, mangalore had recorded 65 cms of rain as per IMD stats.
I believe the number is higher than this.

Vijayanand said...


Would the current downpour continue in coastal karnataka [mangalore , udupi, karwar] and ghat section areas like [coorg district , chickmangalur , agumbe].

Even if the rains continue for next 10 days with heavy spells for 5 to 6 days, it should help big time.

Despite the rain we are still in deficit. To get normal SW, we need to get more than normal rain in August.

Kindly let me have your inputs. Thanks in advance :)

Vijayanand said...

IMD NWP chart is looking quite good for the next 6 days. West coast from kerela to mumbai should get good spells. Interior karnataka also appears to be in for decent rain. Hope this happens.

Pradeep said...


From June 1 to August 7th, in mm

Udupi ~ 1790
Karwar - 1755
Mangalore AP - 1600
Mangalore - 1551

Pradeep said...

Venkatesh you requested Waynad rainfall readings in Kerala for 07.08.2012

Here it is in mm

Pookot - 289
Vythri - 223
Mananthavady - 95
Meenangadi - 70
Ambalavayal - 56

Pradeep said...

Rainfall around Chennai region ending 8.30 am on 08.08.2012

For 5th straight day, Chennai surrounding areas has got moderate rainfall. I wonder how these rains are missing Nungambakkam.

in mm

Kalpakkam - 10
Mahabalipuram - 10
Maduranthagam - 10
Uttiramerur - 6
Chemberabakkam - 4
Korattur - 4
Poondi - 2

venkatesh said...

>>I am unable to find current KRS level?

Yesterday evening it was 84 feet with 34k inflow

Pradeep said...

Alamati Dam -
Full Reservoir Level (FRL) - 519.6(m)
Present Water Level - 518.7(m)

Tungabhadra Dam
Full Reservoir Level (FRL) - 497.74(m)
Present Water Level - 492.83(m)

Vivek said...

Heavy rain in the Gurgaon today. Still raining.

Vijayanand said...

Pradeep, Thanks for providing coastal karnataka stats.
Most of these places are still deficit by 20% to 25%.

Anonymous said...

i was wondering, is it not strange that karnataka gets sudden/ unexpected surge in rains, do you think the prayers had an effect ?

Ron said...

any chance of axis shifting back southwards??

Anonymous said...

anonymous: in his post, Mr. Rajesh has explained the reason..

sset said...

Anonymous - pls do not say that...Faith in God is very important- but not by wasting 200crores as done by Karnataka state goverment. This could have been spent on infrastructure, environment, poor people. We all know weather is nature and science phenomenon and ofcoure feedback of how man inturn respects nature.

Anyway let us not react to this blog, let us hope next 2 months entire country get normal rain and after that NEM also.

Anonymous said...

waiting for ur forecast of next 2 days n of week too of mumbai.

Vivek said...

Rajesh sir,

As forecast on Vagaries, Gurgaon/South Delhi got the best rain of the season so far. My estimate is between 80mm and 100mm. Could you explain why the rainfall was so heavy?

Posting this here to find out if Greater Noida/Ghazibad got similar amounts of rainfall.

Also what is forecast for the rest of the week.

Thank you,

venkatesh said...

Thanks pradeep for posting waynad readings.As usual you are always MR.DEPENDABLE

Rajesh said...

vivek: I think Ayanagar recieved 38 mms, Gurgaon 16 mms and Najafgarh 16 mms. These are the only readings available as yet..actually was busy today, and could not collect information...

RK said...

Vivek: Greater Noida did not get any proper rain today...only a brief drizzle...

Pradeep said...

Other rainfall figures

Mastikatte has received 408 mm rain, Hulikal 400 mm, Yadur 328 mm while 319 mm rain was recorded in Mani.

  4th October  The subtropical ridge continues to extend further east from the Arabian peninsula towards most parts of North west and west c...