Wednesday, August 19, 2009

So things seem to be moving as per expectations ! Lets keep our fingers crossed, and rule out this monsoon as yet, but hope the time table mentioned in the last blog is adhered to by the various systems, now hovering around the Indian Sub-continent. Though some international models have pushed the date of revival of rains along western India to 24th. August, i estimate to the contrary, and would like to stick to my origianl scheduled forecast dates. (Being a bit too pessimistic :-)

"The upper air cyclonic circulation over interior Tamilnadu and adjoining Kerala now lies over Kerala and neighbourhood and extends upto mid-tropospheric levels. It is tilting southwestward with height."-IMD. The 925 streamline map demomstrates this.

Todays satellite image shows all the convective cloudings in the south-west segment.
The forecasted MJO wave has somewhat established itself over the equator region below the Indian Peneinsula. Now, this should be moving to the east towards the South China Sea, and as expected, push a low/pulse into the weak monsoon prevailing over the sub-continent presently.
And, the monsoon should be getting moisture from the current phase of the MJO, as normally, its impact of producing weather systems is known to last for upto 10 days.

The revival of monsoon over the peninsula regions is expected to become more established from this week, as the upper air circulation in the south, which did not sink to sea level, much as we would have liked it to, crosses the southern states.
With the off- shore trough getting moisture, the rain belt will start moving northwards along the west coast in a day.

As a sequel, interior peninsula and central India will benefit from the rains thus precipitated.

Mumbai, expect the rains from Wednessday, yes, i think we can stick to that forecast. A little change though! Seeing thunderclouds over the eastern horizon yesterday, and many thunder anvils along the west coast yesterday evening, i think Mumbai will get rain along with thunder/lightning during the evening.
These thunder clouds along the west coast, at various points could be due to local vortex forming as a result of the heat.


Anonymous said...

It rained today morning around Juhu area for about 90 minutes with lots of thunder and lightning

Rajesh said...

Thanks. So, it was 75 mm, as per our estimate.

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