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Now, the western end of the monsoon axis has shifted north of the normal, indicating a dull phase for the regions south of the axis. And the westerly winds are blowing straight into the plains of north India (IMD streamline map).
It is not a particularly strong monsoon in the central/southern and western regions, including the north-west,now. Nor is it weak along the axis, as is evident from the heavy rains along the Himalayan foothills, Bengal and the north-east, w
hich have been in deficit and need the rains.
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Last week’s forecasts had indicated the formation of a weak ‘low’ in the Bay by the 26th./27th. It is now awaited, and hopefully soon that too. A fresh spell of rains along the central and north-western regions is required soon, but, the path of the forecasted low cannot be projected yet.
What I am fearing is the arrival of a ridge in the 500 hpa region from the west. If it moves along the path of north-west India eastwards, then we may have to bear up with a dry spell. This can be thwarted only by a low from the bay, which can literally halt the advance of the "dry" ridge. And that is what we in the sub continent must hope for ! .
What I am fearing is the arrival of a ridge in the 500 hpa region from the west. If it moves along the path of north-west India eastwards, then we may have to bear up with a dry spell. This can be thwarted only by a low from the bay, which can literally halt the advance of the "dry" ridge. And that is what we in the sub continent must hope for ! .
For the next 2 of days,for India,the precipitation scene might just remain the same as on Monday.
Mumbai will have a couple of heavy passing showers on Tuesday morning and afternoon. With more sunny intervals after lunch time. Rain will be about 15 mms. But the rains will on Wednessday, when i expect less than 10 mms . A bit hotter on Wed. 31 c again like on Saturday.
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