Monsoon Watch-10
Bay Region: Severe cyclone "Nargis" is now moving away towards the Myanmar coast, and will hit the coast on the 2nd. Subsequently, the winds in the bay would take about 10 days to regroup back into pre monsoon formation as the bay water temperatures are now down to around 30c. Since, according to forecast models, the ridge aloft at 500hpa is moving away, the typical situation of strong south-westerlies from across the equator will be back into action near about the Andaman islands around the 11th./12th. The monsoon could advance into the Andaman Sea by the 14th.
Regions of south east Asia, and Thailand coast could get the monsoon rains from the 15th. Singapore and west Indonesia areas will get a spurt in rainfall activity due to the above reasons from next week.

Sub-Continent Mainland: The sub continent is now in for some severe heating in the next 10 days. From Kashmir to Maharashtra through Rajasthan, Delhi, M.P. and Gujarat, the days are forecasted to heat up . In Pakistan, the Sindh region will see temperatures go up to 48c in the first 10 days of May, and places in Rajasthan could see 47/48c and Akola or Nagpur may touch 47c. Gujarat may witness a 45c in a few places in the first week. This augments well for the formation of the seasonal low, which is forecasted to form around the 4th. by the NCMRWF. The weather is expected to be dry, except on the 3rd. when a weak W.D. crosses by and precipitates little rain in Kashmir.

Arabian Sea:With the developments, the ICTZ can cross the equator by the 10th. Subsequently. it will tone up the equtorial flow of south westerly winds in the Arabian Sea region, and the Somali current could strengthen after the 15th. The sea temperature needs to warm up still by 2c.
Hence Maldives and Comorin can expect the monsoon rains from 20th.

kapadias@gmail.com