Sunday, May 04, 2008

Monsoon Watch-11

Bay Region: The water temperatures in the bay remains low after the cyclone. The image shows the temperatures around the centre of the bay as below normal (cyclone region), and the south bay also is seen as below normal. This has to heat up as discussed in the last blog, and create the conditions for the northward movement of the bay branch of the monsoon and a gush of the cross equatorial winds. It is still only 2 days since the passing of the cyclone, and the waters will heat up in a day or two, and maybe keep the date of monsoon over Andamans.

Sub-Continent Region: The region has started heating up exactly as anticipated.

Maximum temperatures on 4th.May

Nawabshah (Pakistan) 48°
Sibi (Pakistan) 46°
Jacobabad (Pakistan) 46°
Hissar Airport (India) 45°
Gwalior (India) 45°
Rohri (Pakistan) 45°
Kota Aerodrome (India) 44°
Amritsar Airport (India) 44°
Jharsuguda (India) 44°
Satna ( India) 44°

This list of todays (Sunday,4th.) maximum shows Nawabshah touching the 48c mark. And, the seasonal low has started to form, with the core at 998mb (IMD) today.A German forecast site shows the core pressure of the seasonal low dropping to 995mb. by Tuesday,6th.
However, the weak W.D. passing through the northern regions today may not bring down the temperatures to a large extent, except provide a relief of a degree or two, that too for one day.

Arabian Sea: The water temperatures of the region still are seen as below normal in the above image. But it is some time before this needs to heat up. Even if the waters heat up in the next 10 days, the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon will progress on the normal date.
Yet again,it seems the monsoon can be on time and as per normal date.

Shall discuss the intensity and performance of the monsoon as per available data next week.

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