Sunday, April 20, 2008

Monsoon Watch-6

Continuing from my previous blog about the southern hemisphere, the convective clouds linked to the MJO has moved eastwards as anticipated. The satellite image shows the convective clouds west of Indonesia. As forecasted, the clouding seems to be moving towards the south-east, and getting pulled to the north-west coast of Australia. A low has already formed there. Now, it is possible that the cross equatorial south easterlies, now in symmetrical formation, will twirl around this low by tomorrow. This will reduce the systematic flow heading towards the equator, and for a few days disrupt the smooth flow of the cross equatorial flows.

But this sequence has been anticipated in my blog of the 17th., and the date of the monsoon onset has been predicted to be near the shcedule date taking this event into consideration.

Meanwhile, even though the seasonal low in the Rajasthan region has still not organised itself, the northern/central heating is on, with Nagpur at 43.5c today, and Nawabshah at 42c. There is a W.D. approaching the northern regions of Pakistan/India. It has been predicted to be weak and effect only the northern most regions and not the plains by the IMD. I personally feel, that this W.D. may dip a little more than just the hills, as there is no organised trough in the peninsula to keep it in the higher regions. Also, there is no ridge aloft to defer any W.D.

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