Saturday, April 05, 2008

Day temperatures today (Saturday) have dropped to 15c below in Uttaranchal and were 7-9c below normal over the northern region with a few place recording days upto 12c below normal. In Pakistan too, the highest tempearture in the country on 5th. was 35c, while we saw a high of 43c in late March there. In India, the highest temperature on Saturday was 37 c at Solapur and Anantapur, while most of the places in the traditional hot regions of the northwest were below 30c. Surely much lower than normal. It could be well over 40c at many places by this time.

The W.D. is now sliding away to the east, and can precipitate rain along its path in the next 2 days. A trough in the rear of the W.D. may form from Gujarat to inland Karnatak for a day on the 7th./8th. Resultantly there may be light rain in the western ghats region of Maharashtra (Lonavala and Mahableshwar) on Tuesday/Wednessday. Also light sporadic rain may occur on these days in Karnatak.

La Nina:
La Niña involves a cooling of the eastern central Pacific Ocean waters and the current episode began to develop late 2007. La Niña is now said to be weakening and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology reports that it is weakening ahead of previous model predictions. However, most model guidance is consistent in suggesting continuation of La Nina conditions [as indicated by central Pacific SST] until around the end of the southern hemisphere Autumn. This is the time of year when abatement of La Nina conditions would typically be expected. Status of the La Nina should be watched for the next 30 days to see its effect on the monsoon, if any.

The diminished MJO activity is diminishing along the North Austrailia region, thus showing the first real signs of the ICTZ to start moving from its southern hemisphere base.

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