Sunday, February 10, 2008

The entire northern and central areas of the sub continent have been in the grip of a severe cold wave since the last 25days. Almost at a stretch ! New records have been created with several places recording their lowest ever, or their lowest in many years. Citing some new lows (either all time or for Jan/Feb). Adampur at -4c, Amritsar at -2c, Mt. Abu at -3c, Nawabshah(Pakistan) at -4c, Nalliya at 0.4c, Mumbai Santacruz at 8.5c and Mumbai Colaba at 11.8c.

Some of the unusual events of this winter was a prolonged period of very low temperatures in most of the region during Jan and Feb.Freezing 0c at Chandigarh, and frost in Delhi, Mahableshwar and at Nalliya( Kutch). Freezing of the lake in Mt.Abu and very low temperatures of -16c for several days at Pahalgam.

The cold spell, a result of a series of 2/3 W.D.s, back to back, still holds on. In fact, with the passing of the last W.D. from the northern region yesterday, on Saturday, the cold is expected to prevail in northwest and north India/Pakistan. Cold, or below normal temperatures (using the appropiate term), during the day and night, can be seen in the day and night maps above.

But, taking into account the fact that we are now nearing the third week of February, the temperatures should rise from the 13th. With no further W.D.coming, and the high pressure ridge aloft holding on, the cold "shield" will be broken by the 13th. and the mercury will reach the normal level quite fast.

Near normal temperatures will rule over central and norhthern India from the 13th. onwards. This would in effect mean, that it will feel more "hot', as the rise will be from a below normal level to normal.

For the southern states, a curving of the east wind will mean some rain in Tamil Nadu and coastal A.P. Due to the easterly penetration, there can be some rain in Kerala ( especially southern region), and interior Karnataka. But the rain will be short lived, for a couple of days, and not very heavy.

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