Wednesday, October 24, 2007

I would like to still cling to my estimated forecast of a low forming in the bay, and precipitating rainfall over South India, and dissipating over the peninsula.
It would have poured a fairly good amount of rain in the coastal areas( 28/29th.), and inland Tamil Nadu and south Kerala(29/30th.). Interior Karnatak can also get fair rains by 30th.
Several models like NOGAP and ECMWF predict the low to form into a depression, and cross the Tamil Nadu coast around the 28th.-29th. But I have my doubts of the same low reforming in the Arabian Sea. A low/depression in the bay is quite a normal occurance for this time, but the anti conditions of the western sector sea can prevent any major development there, as dry air is pushing from the mainland.
The coming system should cross the coast between 10N and 15N, due to the high pressure ridge in the northern parts.

But, like mentioned earliar, more systems could be expected till mid November atleast.

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