Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Monsoon Watch - 25

The monsoon continues with its progress in the eastern parts of India and is advancing well due to an "easterly wave " from the far east (the one causing excessive rain in eastern China).The low pressure area off the coast of Orssa seems to be evolving,with some heavy rain expected over Orissa region.
In fact , this wave has resulted in easterly winds in the northern plains, causing some rain and a relief from the extensive heat. But the hot northwesterlies will resume once this wave dies out, in a couple of days.

The latest positive sign I can visulise for the monsoon to move north along the west coast of India is the development of the well formed seasonal heat low over northwest India and extending into Pakiastan.With this ready, the monsoon currents need not wait for a low in the Arabian Sea to move north.As mentioned in my previous "MW's", this heat low is a very crucial component for the monsoon advancing, and I have always stressed upon this development.The ideal pressure gradiant to help the northward thrust of the monsoon is also there, and conditions are ready for the monsoon clouds to penetrate further north substantially in 2/3 days.

It is only hoped, that predictions and forecast estimates do not change this time, as much of the sub continent plains and the west coast need the rains, stalled near Goa, since14 days now. During this period after the initial monsoon burst, forecasts and calculations have gone haywire twice, once with Gonu taking the monsoon away from the Indian coast, and again with the south westerly winds suddenly getting strong, and then getting weak equally fast, as the expected low in the Bay did not form in the second week of June. Another point worth noting, is that proir to Gonu, I have always mentioned that the sea temperature is perfect at 31-32 c for the quick formation of monsoon clouds. But post Gonu, it is observed that the Arabian sea temperature dropped to 28 c (but slowly heatinf again), and this does not hasten formation of substantial clouding.

We can only calculate, forecast or observe the weather, not control it.

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