Friday, June 22, 2007

I would rather call this piece the "03B" watch.

As estimated, the deep depression, or a weak cyclone ,crossed the east coast of India, by Friday afternoon. By then it had poured 320 mms of rain, in 24 hrs. over a few places in A.P. and on Friday, during the day, only in 9 poured out a massive 245 mm of rain in Kurnool (A.P.).

The forecast was, rightly, that this 03B would bring excessive rains along the heartland of India,with some flooding in A.P. and along its path. the west coast too is to get excessive rain, upto 300 mms from saturday.

But, according to me, the latest images do not show as much of a strenght maintained by 03B, or so it seems to me. It seems to have weakened faster inland.

Now, the future course. Models predict that the system will re enter the Arabian Sea. Ok, so far. One view says of the system getting stronger and heading along the sea to, yes, Oman again !By the 25th.
Another view suggests the system on entering the Arabian Sea goes north along the west coast of India and after hitting the gujarat coast, going into Rajasthan, again by the 25th.

And yet, another model of forecast does suggest of the re entering of the system in the Arabian Sea, and going for the Sindh coast in Pakistan. Ok, fairly close to the second, forecast.This too could be around the 26th.

Well, model predictions have shown that they can be a little off the course, and nature has always proved it can take its own course.

Anyway, one of the estimates will surely prove correct.

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