Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Monsoon Watch - 7

With the "high" aloft, the day temperatures are bound to show a rising trend in the Northern Sub-continent in the next few days.This will do well for the "low" developing in N.India. As yet the seasonal "low" shows a pressure of 1005mb. Just before the monsoon sets in, in early June, this seasonal "low" will ,and should, drop to 994mb.,and stretch from N.India to Arabia, with its centre at Jacobabad,Pakistan.

Even the Bay has started heating, and the South east portion is now around 31°, also the south Arabian Sea is at 31° .Hints of the first pre monsoon" low" in the bay, maybe by first week of May, may be seen. This would be a bit late, but continuation of excessive heating in the bay and over India/Pakistan, could bring the monsoon by the end of May.

An interesting feature noticed in the last 2 days was a "cold wave" in Maharastra. Minimum temperatures were below normal, since the last 2/3 days by as much as 5-7°. Nasik and Pune were at 16°, Aurangabad at 20.6°,and a few days back, Mahableshwar was at 13°. Something worth noting was that today Pune and Shimla both recorded a minimum of 16.2° !

But, hopefully, this is just a very temporary phase,and temperatures dropped because of the skies clearing at night. This moderate spell of "low temperatures'' should not go on beyond a couple of days, nor extend area wise, as it may upset the Monsoon calender.

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