4th November .....Night Post

We have ( in all probility) seen the end of the prolonged rainy season for Mumbai and Interior Maharshtra...(by 5th as posted on 2nd Nov)

Mumbai/Pune: Drier weather from 5th, and night temperatures can drop by 3/4°C from this weekend.😁

But not before sprinkling light rains in parts of Mumbai on 4th...See Chart👇  

Annual in 2025 as on date:  2978 mms (117") in Colaba and 3597 mms ( 141") in Santacruz,Pune 1174 mms (46") and in Panaji 3682 mms (144") and Ratnagiri saw 4218 mms (166")...Figures of 2025 till date.

Mumbai Rainfall map of 4th ...Green marks indicate upto 5 mms of rainfall 

Colaba IMD measured 4 mms.

The credit for the change of winds and end to rains goes to this Western disturbance👆

NW Winds along Konkan 

-----------------------

Snowfall Started from W.D.

3rd November details of Extreme Temperatures 

India: 

Hottest Day: Madurai: 37.6°c

Coldest Day : Leh 12.4°c

Coldest Night: Nubra( Ladakh): -1.6°c

Warmest Night : Nellore 28.2°c

Maharashtra:

Hottest: Amravati 34.2°c

Coldest: Mahabaleshwar:16.9°c

World Extremes 

 2nd November Image 👇

Mumbai: Unseasonal rains have extended into November, and constant support from a weak system has made this rainy season an extended one.

Due to prevailing SW winds, (Above Image) {and West Coast} Likely to get moderate rainfall upto 5th/6th November..

Rains will also continue in Madhya Maharastra  (Pune|Jalgaon), Marathwada (Aurangabad) till 5th\6th.November.

Rainfall as on 2nd Morning:

Kokan & Goa:Savarde-arg (dist Ratnagiri) 10, Ratnagiri - Imd Obsy (dist Ratnagiri) 8, Sawantwadi (dist Sindhudurg) 7, Sangameshwar Devrukh (dist Ratnagiri) 6, Chiplun (dist Ratnagiri) 6, Lanja (dist Ratnagiri) 5, Guhagarh (dist Ratnagiri) 4, Rameshwar_agri (dist Sindhudurg) 3, Harnai Imd Obsy (dist Ratnagiri) 3, Vaibhavwadi (dist Sindhudurg) 3, Devgad (dist Sindhudurg) 2, Wakwali_agri (dist Ratnagiri) 2, Dapoli_agri (dist Ratnagiri) 2, Kudal (dist Sindhudurg) 2, Ponda (dist North Goa) 2, Dodamarg (dist Sindhudurg) 2, Mandangad (dist Ratnagiri) 2, Rajapur (dist Ratnagiri) 2, Malvan (dist Sindhudurg) 2, Roha (dist Raigad) 2, Mulde - Aws (dist Sindhudurg) 2, Sudhagad Pali (dist Raigad) 2, 

Madhya Maharastra:Dahigaon - Fmo (dist Jalgaon) 9, Pachora (dist Jalgaon) 6, Gaganbawada (dist Kolhapur) 4, Yaval (dist Jalgaon) 3, Mahabaleshwar- Imd Obsy (dist Satara) 3, Jamkhed (dist Ahilyanagar) 3, Jamner (dist Jalgaon) 3, Akkalkuwa (dist Nandurbar) 2, 

Marathwada: Gangakhed (dist Parbhani) 1, Mantha (dist Jalna) 1, Khultabad (dist Chh. Sambhajinagar) 1, Soegaon (dist Chh. Sambhajinagar) 1, Gangapur (dist Chh. Sambhajinagar)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Upcoming WD, although not that strong in terms of widespread rain/snow, will still bring decent precipitation to J&K, Ladakh and HP...parts of Punjab and higher ranges of Uttarakhand can also get rain/snow

Cold air behind this WD, will signal winter onset for Northern regions

Punjab/NCR min can go down below 13°C after 5th and maybe in single digits in open areas after 7th November.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Negative IOD" refers to a negative phase of the {Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)}, a climate pattern where the western Indian Ocean is cooler than average and the eastern Indian Ocean is warmer than average.

This -Ve iod also partially explains why Arabian Sea system not able to intensify to cyclone

IOD also can significantly impact winter temps across maharaahtra and needs detailed research.

Dr.Vineet Kumar

 31st October:

October 2025 Month's Rainfall:

Place /Oct25 /Normal  /

*Record   /2025 Annual (In mms) 

CLB.      168.    082.        

*507(1917).    2934

SCZ.       076.    091.       

*377(1998).    3566

PUNE     067.   105.       

 *440(1892).   1174

R'GIRI    260.    124.       

*439(1938).   4078

MWAR.  235.    140.       

*956(1938).   6925

Abd         104.    077       

*415(1990).    0919

PNJI.       459.    146.      

*391(2006).    3647

 30th October Night:

AS - 5: Our Vagarian Gaurav Raninga points out that this could possibly be the longest surviving (in days over Sea), if it enters its 11th day on 31st October.

We have the original post forecast as on 19th October 

Finally  after several permutations,  AS 5, tracks on a predicted path..  Current location 👇

Mumbai: Moderate to light showers to persist in Mumbai till 2nd November. 

Pune/Sambhajinagar: Light Rains till 31st October.Nights getting cooler at 17°c.

Heavy rains expected from 31st October to 3rd November in Saurashtra and Gujarat Region including Bharuch. N

-----------------------------------------------------------

[ Old systems: 

Vagarian Shitij informs:In 1894 also a depression stayed for 10 days in Arabian sea (from 17th Oct to 26th Oct)

Recently,Depression - Cyclone, show 2021 cyclone as surviving for 7 days 

Original Vagaries post of 14th May] 2021.