Co Authors: GSB, Shreyas Dhavale, Pradeep John, Dr. Vineet Singh, Gokul

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Kolkata.DumDum.. 194 mms & Kolkata Alipore 222 mms rain in 12 hrs ended 8.30 pm.. Winds lashing at 110 kmph 
Posted Wednesday 20th 3.30 pm IST
"Amphan" making Landfall..


Post of Wednesday 11 am IST:

Extremely Severe Cyclone" .."Amphan" now has moved North and Locates at 20N and 87.3E.. 390 kms S/SE of Kolkata, 123 kms E/SE of Paradip, 177kms SE of Digha Tracking N/NE....Estimated winds 165-175 kmph....

EYE Location at 11 am IST

Rainfall in Odisha till 8.30am today 20th :

Paradip 215mm
 Balasore 59m
Bhubaneswar 51mm
 Puri 90mm
Chandbali 61mm

Windspeed in Odisha till 8.30am today

Paradip-106kmph
Bhubaneswar-56kmph
Chandbali-80kmph.
Balasore-67kmph
Puri -48kmph

Source-IMD (sent by Vagarian Mitan)

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Posted Tuesday Evening 6.30 pm IST:
"Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm".."Amphan" now at 17N and 86.9E (Storm Centre is 690 kms S/SE of Kolkata) having moved Northwards.
Winds estimated at 200-210 kmph and Estimated  pressure 950 hpa.



To cross West Bengal Sundarbans, Near Digha,  region by 20th afternoon/Evening.. But with winds at around 165 kmph and Gusts squally at 185 kmph.

Kolkata: Wednesday will be Cyclonic Weather ..Squally winds at around 80-100 kmph. Continuous intermittent rains. about 100 mms.

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Posted Tuesday 19th May Noon:

"Amphan"...Super Cyclonic Storm" ...Tracks North/North-Eastwards..Will track till the end ...towards West Bengal Coastline/Bangladesh Coast by 20th...N/NE along the edge periphery of the Ridge...
Now Located at 16N,  86.8E...480 km nearly south of Paradip (Odisha), 630 km south-southwest of Digha (West Bengal) , 800 kms S/SE of Kolkata and 750 km south-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh)..
Current Estimated Winds 25/225 kmph...
Estimated Pressure 930 hpa and Intensity T 5.9 (Average)
Eye wall entrenched in the Western side  of the eye and showing no eye wall in the Eastern side (Easterly Shear.) ....completing the Eye Wall replacement cycle  
Likely to weaken to Extremely Severe Cyclone.




Potential Damage Expected i Coastal West Bengal..Damage Expected:  Extensive damage to all types of kutcha houses, some damage to old badly managed Pucca structures. Potential threat from flying objects.  Extensive uprooting of communication and power poles.  Disruption of rail/road link at several places.  Extensive damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards.  Blowing down of Palm and coconut trees.  Uprooting of large bushy trees.  Large boats and ships may get torn from their moorings. ( IMD Warning)

Amphan Pull effect Rains in Karnataka and Kerala, Convevtive Rains in Tamil Nadu












































































Monday, May 18, 2020

Post 6.30 pm IST (Monday)

"Amphan"...Super Cyclonic Storm...on 18th Evening...At 14.4N , 86.4E...980 kms S/SE of Kolkata....winds speed 230-240 kmph...Estimates Core Pressure 925 hpa...Eye diameter 15 kms...Intensity T 6.5.
Crossing/Lowest MSLP expected Estimated at 923 hpa

Inundation of Low lying areas of 24 Parganas by Storm Surge of 4/5 metres and in East Medinipur by 3/4 metres. (West Bengal).

Expected to cross on the West Bengal/Bangladesh Border Coast on 20th...




Kolkata: Squally winds and rains commence from 19th evening..20th: squall at 125 kmph and 150 mms of rainfall'

Upto 20 cms of rains in coastal areas expected.

Arabian Sea Branch of South West Monsoon may see slight delay...but around Vagaries' date for Kerala around 4th/5th June.
 Next update 12 noon Tuesday 19th
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"Amphan" Upgraded to "Super Cyclonic Storm " 18th 12.30 pm..230-240 kmph estimated winds   Cat 4






next Update 6.30 pm IST Monday
Posted on 18th May Afternoon:


As on 18th Afternoon:

Dangerous Cyclone Amphan in Bay of Bengal Poised to Rapidly Intensify

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm "Amphan"...Location 13.3N  86.4E....1000 kms S/SW of Kolkata....Estimated Core Pressure now 945-950 hpa (Landfall Estimated pressure could be 930-935 hpa)....Estimated core winds now180-190 kmph....Gusts 210 kmph.....Centre Temp -51.7c and Cloud Region -83.3c....Eye Diameter 20 kms...Intensity T 6.4







NLM of South West Monsoon

Kolkata: Very Heavy rains from Tuesday 19th Evening and  on 20th...130-170 mms  with Squally winds 90-110 kmph.

Sunday, May 17, 2020

Posted 17th May Evening:

"Amphan" ..Very Severe Cyclonic Storm..Tracking North now (Along path shown in below post) ..and wind speed 120-130 kmph thus showing an evolving eye.. (Warning: By 19th , it can peak to 180-190 kmph, and then weaken slightly before landfall  ) 

Located at 11.7N and 86.3E, 675 kms East/SE of Chennai.. Intensity: T4.0. Cat 1...Estimated Pressure 987 mb..
Track as shown in previous Post
Expected Intensification due to initial favourable symptoms


Divergence with TPW Background

shear with TPW Background

Squally Winds and Heavy Rains likely in Kolkata from 20th..
Posted 17th May 1 pm:

"Amphan": Severe Cyclonic Storm: 10.9N and 86.3E: Estimated winds at 110 kmph.

Tracking towards Bangladesh May reach Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (Cat 3) before Landfall.



13th August Post Next 5 - 8 Days from 12th August indicating Low rainfall for Mumbai.. Around 10/15 mms /Day.