Posted Sunday 24th February Night:

Due to F-5 moving East, and interacting with Easterly Moist winds, heavy thunder showers likely in Kolkata on Monday and Tuesday (50-70 mms). Very Heavy thunder showers in some parts likely on Monday.

With Western Disturbance F-5 moving away, we see another Back -to- Back WD coming in approaching our Sub Continent again (F-6) from 25th. 
Into Pakistan , F-6 will cover most of the Northern Regions and have precipitations down South till Sindh.
Karachi will get showers and light rains on Monday 25th and Tuesday 26th.

F-6 moves into India on the 26th, with good rains /snow in Kashmir, H.P. and Uttarakhand. Rains likely in the plains of NW India. On 26th, rains with hails, will occur in Punjab, Haryana, North Rajasthan, Delhi, West U.P. and Northern M.P.
Cool NW winds blowing across Saurashtra will bring cooler weather to Gujarat on Tuesday and Wednesday.

New Delhi will get showers , heavy in some parts, upto 10 mms, on Tuesday and some showers on Wednesday. Tuesday/Wednesday days will be cool around 19c. Nights will drop to 7-9c.

Jabalpur: Light rains likely on 27th Wednesday.

Mumbai: Saw the warm weekend with the maximum on Saturday and Sunday at 35c. Likely to start getting to 32c on Monday and pleasantly cool with below 30c temps in the day on Tuesday 26th and Wednesday 27th. Nights around 13-15c on 25th/26th. Windy evenings these two days.

Pune: Again, after a warm Saturday/Sunday recording 36c, Pune will start cooling down from Monday 25th. Tuesday/Wednesday will be cool, with minimum going down to 9-11c.

Another Back to Back Western Disturbance,  F-7, approaches our Region on 28th February ( In North Pakistan) and 1st March into India.

As  "Earth warms,"  Michigan's  Upper  Peninsula  to  get  more  snow

See  the  Normal  Annual  Snowfall  increase  in  last  30  years...Mid Western States, U.S

F-5 Activity on Wednesday

Posted Wednesday 20th February 2019


The Ozone Hole: 

Closing the Gap

 Every day, as the Sun shines on the Earth, it sends ultraviolet rays that can cause sunburn and sometimes damage our DNA. Like a sunscreen for our planet, the ozone layer absorbs most of this harmful radiation and protects us. 
But in the early 1980s, scientists discovered that the ozone layer was thinning over Antarctica each August and September. 
In 1987, nations around the world came together to fix the problem through the Montreal Protocol. The international treaty banned the production of ozone-depleting chemicals like chloroflurocarbons or CFCs. But these chemicals had been in use for decades, and they stay in the atmosphere for a long time so it took a while to see the effects of the ban. 
In 2000, the ozone hole was the largest ever observed by scientists. 
But conditions slowly improved. Data from NASA and several partners showed a 20 percent decrease in ozone depletion during August/September from 2005 to 2016.

In 2017, the hole was the smallest since 1988. A year later, the hole was smaller than expected. Studies suggest that the ozone layer over Antarctica should mostly recover by the middle of the 21st century.
NASA Earth Observatory

See Video: https://youtu.be/6BUT16jfoKk

19th February 2019

Mumbai Water Supplying Lakes Storage:

As against a full supply position of 1447000 mlitres, the total storage on date is 608000 mllitres. That is 42% full from capacity. 
Todays supply is at the reduced rate of 3400 mltrs, so stock is for 178 days from date....that is upto 15th August 2019.

Info credit Vagarian Jayesh Mehta

Posted Sunday 17th Night:

F-3 over North India now. Rains/snow expected next 2 days.

Delhi NCR; Moderate rains next 3 days. 

F-4, more intense approaches North India and NW plains on 20th. More Rains in North from F-4

Mumbai: Pleasant spell to subside..Gradual increase in warmth next 3 days. 

Pune/Aurangabad: Gradual heat up leading to 35c by Mid week. Wait for weekend !

Kolkata: Hot on Wednesday and Thursday to 35c...

Australia’s Record Hot January: Mostly Weather, Not Climate Change

February 4th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) claims January, 2019 was record-hot. There is no doubt it was very hot — but just how hot… and why?

The BOM announcement mentions “record” no less than 28 times… but nowhere (that I can find) in the report does it say just how long the historical record is. My understanding is that it is since 1910. So, of course, we have no idea what previous centuries might have shown for unusually hot summers.

The assumption is, of course, that anthropogenic global warming is to blame. But there is too much blaming of humans going on out there these days, when we know that natural weather fluctuations also cause record high (and low) temperatures, rainfall, etc.

But how is one to know what records are due to the human-component of global warming versus Mother Nature? (Even the UN IPCC admits some of the warming since the 1950s could be natural. Certainly, the warming from the Little Ice Age until 1940 was mostly natural.)

One characteristic of global warming is that it is (as the name implies) global— or nearly so (maybe not over Antarctica). In contrast, natural weather variations are regional, tied to natural variations and movements in atmospheric circulation systems.

That “weather” was strongly involved in the hot Australian January can be seen by the cooler than normal temperatures in coastal areas centered near Townsville in the northeast, and Perth in the southwest:  

The extreme heat was caused by sinking air, which caused clear skies and record-low rainfall in some areas.

But why was the air sinking? It was being forced to sink by rising air in precipitation systems off-shore. All rising air must be exactly matched by an equal amount of sinking air, and places like Australia and the Sahara are naturally preferred for this — thus the arid and semi-arid environment. The heat originates from the latent heat release due to rain formation in those precipitation systems.

If we look at the area surrounding Australia in January, we can see just how localized the “record” warmth was. The snarky labels reflect my annoyance at people not thinking critically about the difference between ‘weather’ and ‘climate change’: 

January 2019 surface temperature anomalies (deg. C, relative to the 1981-2010 average) from NOAA’s Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis fields. Unlabeled graphic courtesy of WeatherBell.com.

So, the claims of the usual suspects such as “Australia’s Extreme Heat is a Sign of Things to Come” is just one more example of the blind leading the blind.