Posted 1st May Evening:

 Date :  01 MAY 2019    Time :   121500 UTC
      Lat :   14:36:30 N     Lon :   84:02:51 E

     
              CI#       Pressure       Estimated max
              5.0       965.1mb        165 kmph

     
   Centre Temp : -77.2C    Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C

The major convection is over the Western semi Circle Quadrant of the system.
Fani will track along the path shown below, along the Western Periphery of the STR.. 

Favourable conditions will allow the system to intensify, and peak at 200 kmph in the next 24-36 hrs.
Expected to weaken after crossing 20N line


Cyclone Grazing coast near Puri...expected Landfall near Baleshwar

Posted Tuesday Noon:

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "Fani":

Date :  30 APR 2019    Time :   064500 UTC
      Lat :   12:31:17 N     Lon :   85:50:45 E

     
         CI /       Pressure/        Vmax
         4.6         975.8mb        79.6kt

     
Center Temp : -81.4C    Cloud Region Temp : -74.3C

Posted Sunday Evening 28th :
Cyclonic Storm Fani:

Date : 28 APR 2019 Time : 114500 UTC

      Lat :    8:01:41 N     Lon :   87:12:50 E

Center Temp : -39.9C    Cloud Region Temp : -53.8C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION 

Member Estimates 



CIMSS AMSU: 995 hPa        52 knots   
ATMS:              992.8 hPa    51.7 knots 



28th April 2019

Khaargone 47.5c.

Akola 47.2c (April Record), Parbhani 47.2c (ATR for any month), 

Karjat 45.8c,

Pune 43.0c, , Badlapur (Private) 43c, Nasik 42.8c (New Record again)
Mahableshwar 36.1c, Matheran 38.4c

The first 10 Hottest Places in the World on 28th April:

1
Khargone (India)
                                        47.5°C
2
Akola (India)
                                                                                        
47.2°C
3
Parbhani (India)
47.2°C
4
Kandla Aerodrome (India)
46.8°C
5
Khandwa (India)
46.1°C
6
Chauk (Myanmar)
45.9°C
7
Banda (India)
45.6°C
8
Hoshangabad (India)
45.4°C
9
Jalgaon (India)
45.4°C
10
Adilabad (India)
45.3°C

26th April 2019:

Nasik Recorded 42.7c max, breaking its all time record for any month of 42.2c, which has been intact since 12th May 1960.Minimum also is a record high (as per stats with vagaries)  on 27th April 2019...28.6c

26th April 2019: Pune 42.9c, Nagar 45.1c (All time High is 48.2c in 2010), Mahableshwar 35.7c,Akola 46.7c, Chandrapur 46.5c, Nagpur 45.3c.
20th February 2019:
Maharashtra Cities: Beed 39.0c, Ahemadnagar 38.5c, Pune 37.5c (+ 6), Mahableshwar 31.9c,

See more Maharashtra Day temperature records ..https://vagariesmum.blogspot.com/p/maharashtra.html.

Posted Saturday 27th April Evening:
BB 2 is Now a Cyclone ..."Fani"
Location:5.4/88.5 Winds Estimate: 60-70 gusting to 80 
Status: Cyclonic Storm

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted Saturday 27th  Noon:

BB-2 is now a Deep depression at 5N and 88E. Estimated core winds speed at 50-60 kmph. On Track as yet ! Next Update as Cyclone "Fani" ?

Hot weather in Central India:

The first 11 hottest places in the world on 26th were from Central India (Barring N0.7 and No. 9)
1 Khargone (India) 46.6°C
2 Akola (India)           46.4°C
3 Bramhapuri (India) 45.8°C
4 Parbhani (India) 45.7°C
5 Wardha (India)         45.7°C
6 Chandrapur (India) 45.6°C
7 Kaolack (Senegal) 45.5°C
8 Amraoti (India)         45.4°C
9 Matam (Senegal)         45.2°C
10 Nagpur Sonegaon (India) 45.2°C
11 Khandwa (India)         45.1°C

The minimum temperatures on Saturday Morning:
Barmer 30.8c,  Chandrapur 30.6c,  Aurangabad &  Yeotmal (MAH) 30.4c,  Nasik 28.6c and Pune 25.9c...Mahableshwar23.5c>(Mostly hottest April Temp), 

Posted Friday 26th Afternoon>>>

BB-2 is a Depression now. Core wind speed estimated at 40-45 kmph.

Likely with favorable conditions to deepen into a Deep Depression and possible (2) tracks shown.

------------------------------------------------------------------

Chances of CYCLONE FANI  FORMing IN Southern BAY OF BENGAL

Today, a cyclogenisis initial  stage is seen as cyclonic circulation over extreme Southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean.

A Low is likely to form in the Southern Bay South East of Sri Lanka, around 5N and 90E,  by 25th April. 
That is BB-2 ...Models are indicating that the system would be initially moving in northwest direction. It is likely to get more marked during the next 24 hours from 25th and would be inducing a low pressure area by April 25. 

BB-2 is to intensify into a Depression and track North West. Favourable atmospheric conditions would be further enhancing the strength of the depression.

1. Sea Surface Temperatures: Currently in favourable SST at 30c, but can go into cooler waters after 15N.

2. Vertical wind shear helping the system initially.

3. MJO (Madden–Julian oscillation): It is another key factor as movement of MJO through Indian Ocean at this time would lead to enhanced conditions for sustenance and rapid deepening of BB-2

This may turn into a deep depression and finally into a tropical storm in the subsequent three days i.e. April 29.

Season’s first cyclonic storm  is most likely to be formed and be active.

When BB-2 strengthens into a cyclonic storm, it would be named as ‘Fani’ 

Though it is early to talk about the track of the likely storm, but we can see that there is no consensus among the numerical weather models. Two possible tracks as per Vagaries. System fizzles out at the end of the track...Due to STR resistance

In both the scenarios, Tamil Nadu and Chennai would see rains and thundershowers . Scenario 1 would give some torrential rains over Tamil Nadu including Chennai but in scenario 2, the state would see light to moderate rains only.

Posted Tuesday 23rd April....

A gradual rise in day temperatures from Thursday will be seen in Mumbai. Interior North Konkan already seeing 40c+ from today!

Temperatures will rise in Madhya MH, Marathwada and Vidarbha region of Maharashtra.

Mumbai: At Mumbai Scruz, a gradual rise will see the mercury rising (from the present 34c) to 37-38c by Friday, 36c on Thursday 25th and 38c on Friday 26th and Saturday. During the peak heat on Friday/Saturday, Colaba can touch 36c.

Nights will also rise to warmer temperatures in Scruz to around 26c.

A change of winds to N/NE, and expecting a delay in the sea breeze will shoot the mercury up to these levels.

Eastern Mumbai suburbs from Powai-Vikhroli will cross 40c+ mark temp and Outer townships like Navi Mumbai, Panvel, Thane, Badlapur and Kalyan-Dombivli will experience heat wave with daily 40c+ will continue till Sunday. Friday/Saturday may witness hottest day of season with temp may shoot up to 43c mark.

Pune & Nashik: Warming up from Tuesday may see daily 40c+ temp till Sunday, with the Friday/Saturday/Sunday mercury rising to 41c and possibly chances reaching till 42c in same period.

Aurangabad: Warming up from Tuesday may see daily 40c+ temp till Sunday, with the Saturday/Sunday mercury rising to 42c and possibly chances reaching till 43c in same period.

Nagpur: Warming up from Tuesday may see daily 42c+ temp till Sunday, with the Saturday/Sunday mercury rising to 44c and possibly chances reaching till 45c in same period.

For those wanting to escape this heat...Hill Stations like Lonavala (38-39c) and Mahableshwar (36-37c) will be hot this weekend. 

Heat likely to subside after Monday 29th.