Yes ! The Konkan Strip heating has started ! And all along the "dark yellow" belt put up by Vagaries.
Hottest (also in India) on Friday was Ratnagiri at 38.5c, followed by Panjim at 37.2c. Tiruchirapalli at 37.0c, Mumbai SCruz closely behind at 36.8c ( at +4.7c, seems to be in a hurry to achieve what i thought would take till Sunday).
However, not all Konkan is heating up. Alibag was 31.2c and Dahanu was 31.0c. 
New Delhi Sjung was a comfortable 25.1c, while Pune was 33.7c. Kolkata rose till 33.6c Friday....
Highest in Asia was in Thailand, Lamphun at 39c..


March Outlook on Current Weather Page....

The last day of the month of February saw light rain/snow restricted to Kashmir and HP hills.

But, from the 1st of March, In the absence of any active systems, the weather is expected to be dry all over the India, Pakistan and Nepal from 28th February for the next 5 days, till 4th March.
Light rains in Kashmir and HP hills on 5th March.

Warming up from first Day of March:
No system dominates, so, the Upper Northern palins of the regions will have strong to gusty NW winds.
This will encourage the day temperatures to rise gradually. 

Delhi NCR: Clear skies.  
From the 1st of March, thereafter, a gradual rise to reach 29c by the 4th of March. Nights will be remaining pleasant around 12/13c till 4th.

First 4 days of March are forecasted to warm up in Central India due to Easterly winds. similar east winds will warm up the Gujarat and Konkan coast. 

Mumbai SCruz: Mumbai Colaba was a pleasant 30.2c today (Thursday), and Scruz was 33.8c..However, 
1st March to 4th March will see Easterly winds causing the days to rise regularly to reach 36c by 2nd/3rd March (Scruz). Low temperature will be around 20c.
Outer townships may touch 38c by the 2nd or 3rd of March.

Pune: Warm days with the days touching 37c by the 2nd or 3rd of March. Nights will also hover around 17/18c.

Region in the North Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra or Gujarat may soon see the first 40c of this year.
Vidarbha sees a rise to 37/38c in the first week. Goa should see a rise to 36/37c by Sunday.


Surat: Thursday Surat reached 34.2c. Warming gradually to reach 37/38c by the 2nd or 3rd of March. Bharuch also likely to warm up and reach 37/38 by the 2nd of March.

Kolkata: Seeing Thursday's high of 31.4c, we notice around 31c since last 3 days. I estimate the first 4 days of March will be maintained around 32/33c.

In Pakistan, Karachi will remain warm around 31/32c till 4th March, but we see Hyderabad (Sindh) heating up to 36c by Sunday.

Vagaries' views on March Weather for the Sub Continent later tonite

NEW SUMMER COMPETITION OPEN FOR ENTRIES>>SEE MARCH COMPETITION PAGE FOR RULES:

Highest in India on 26th,Tuesday was at Kurnool, 37.2c.
Maharashtra's highs: Satara 36.9c, Pune Lohgaon 35.5c, Colaba 29.9c vagaries 31.4c, and lowest was 12.2c at Nasik.
Vidharbha nights are cooler than normal as Yeotmal was 14.8c (-3.9c) and Amraoti at 14.8c (-3.4c).


An exuberant Birding trip to Thol, Gujarat, has been a very good experaince with a few lifers (seeing the bird for the first time)..an exotic water body with numerous water birds and the only place in India, where, in one location we get the big five, Storks, Cranes, Pelicans, Flamingoes and Geese. 
Album link put up in the "links" on the right of this page.

Weather:

From Wednesday 27th, rising trend in day temperatures will be observed in Northern plains, Central, Eastern and Southern parts of the country. Central and Western India, see a marked rise from Thursday and Friday.
The first 40c of this season is likely in the country around after Friday on this weekend.
A vagaries map will be put up on Wednesday evening...

Major heating is not seen in Pakistan though.
Across the border, Islamabad remains pleasant due to rains, and Karachi will be around 30/31c next few days. Even Sindh regions remain reasonably within the normal range.Hyderabad remains in the 29c-14c range.

Mumbai Scruz: Tuesday/Wed/Thursday: Clear and warm. These 3 days days will be around 33/34c and nights will remain around 17c. Expecting a very warm begining to the first day of March for Mumbai and outer towns. (Maybe 38/39 in outer towns)
Outer townships will be warm and around 34/35c rising to 36c on Thursday.

Pune: Warm and sunny. Days around 34/35c and nights around 14/15c.

Delhi NCR: Light rains possible in some parts on Late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. Days around the 25/26c- 12c range.

Kolkata: Day temperatures will rise from today's 31c to 32/33con Tuesday/Wed and further 34c on Thursday 28th.

Surat: Warm and sunny, with the highs around 33/34c. 

Chennai too will see days getting warmer from Thursday 28th.

F-4 moves into Northern Pakistan on Tuesday, 26th. 
From Tuesday evening, rainfall increases in the Punjab region of Pakistan and good rainfall for Islamabad from Tuesday night into Wednesday daytime.

Precipitation in Kashmir and HP.Tuesday night sees light rain in Punjab and adjoining Haryana. Amritsar may see light rains on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

On Wednesday, rainfall continues in the above plains. Delhi NCR can become cloudy from Tuesday evening and get light rains early Wednesday morning.
Good rains for Ludhiana and Chandigarh regions.

An extreme High pressure region, of 1040 mb, will form over the Ladakh region, and can "break up "the WD.

Do not miss Video at the end of this article

The 06UTC chart from PMD NMCC, shows F-3 getting "organised" and active over Pakistan. The trough, (WD) with the main primary Low is over Pakistan Sindh region, with the Northerly trough in the NE forming clouds over the North Indian regions. 

And Yes. Islamabad and surroundings had good rainfall last 9Thursday) night as mentioned, with 28 mms measured overnight. In the region, Mianwali was higher with 46 mms. Murree (35 kms away from the capital) received an inch of snow.

As expected, system will move into India tonite. Precipitation and cloudiness will increase as the moisture incursion towards the trough moves Eastwards. 
Saturday/Sunday map (below)on vagaries should tally (for rain and clouds).
The Low over Maharshtra is seen in the region also.
The Southern low over Kerala is short lived and may bring light showers in the Lakshdweep Islands region.
So, it seems, events may move as per yesterday's (below)estimate, and no changes in the forecast may be needed.

F-4 is also seen in the West, and the isobars are getting organised, almost to 2 mb difference between them..indicating the low getting strengthened. But, that is still vague, though entering into the Northern regions of the sub continent by the 26th seems certain.

There will be no blog published till Monday. I am away on a Nature and birding trip to Thol Bird Sanctuary, Mehsana, Gujarat next 3 days. 

FB inter actio will also be very much restricted. Vagarians requested to continue their inter action and keep other readers informed thru comments on blog.

In the meantime, I must share this amazing and absolutely superb video taken from the International Space Station. Another Incredible Timelapse from the ISS.
Covers so many aspects of our Earth's weather, and portraits a Space view of a silvery Moon setting into the Earth’s atmosphere, the dazzling Milky Way rising into a brilliant sunrise, airglow of all colors, popping lightning , shimmering aurorae, and incredible views of the stunning space station and our gorgeous planet.
Request all meteorologists and those who love Nature to watch this till the end....mark the lightning starting at 0.45 secs, Milky Way at 1.45, (i am sure you will not be able to leave it half way thru)

F-3 expectedly  moving in with gathering force:

F-3 currently (Thursday Evening) at 65E and around 35N, has now an induced Low at 28N and 60E, around Central Sindh region...An elongated trough extends SE wards into Western Rajasthan...

F-4 is seen as a 1012 low over 55E and 35N...close isobars in the East of the system and an extended trough sloping SE indicates its Eastward movement.....Arriving around Tuesday 26th...

The other Low in S.Maharashtra is now at 1010 mb and may persist or move NE...

Heavy rains for Islamabad tonite.(Thursday Night)

Next Few Days : (Map above refers to Friday and Saturday Only)

Friday 22nd: F-3 into Northern Pakistan and Pak Punjab. Rains over Sindh (including Southern regions), and light rains around Karachi. 
Rain/snow over Kashmir, HP, Punjab and Northern Haryana. Cloudy over Northern Rajasthan and partly cloudy for Delhi. A Shower late night in some parts of NCR.

Low in the Mah region brings some evening rain and thunder in S.Madhya Maharashtra in Pune and Solapur Districts. Thundery developments around Pune on Friday night with rain in the vicinity.
Light rains to Northern Mah (Nasik and Akola) and adjoining Southern most MP (Nimar and Betul regions) and cloudy weather in Marathwada and West Vidarbha.

Saturday 23rd: Rainfall moves into Delhi NCR. Rainfall be be heavier in South of Delhi, the Delhi-Jaipur belt getting some heavy showers. 
Delhi City avg rainfall: 15 mms (till Sunday morning), and Saturday /Sunday days will fall to a maximum of 21/22c.
Lucknow and the UP region West of Lucknow get showers, and Utteranchal gets rain/snow.
Mah.Low dissolves.

Sunday 24th:  F-3 moves away to the East, and covers Nepal, but the strength has reduced. Kathmandu gets some rains on Sunday, keeping the temperatures low.
Faster movement occurs under the influence of mid- or upper tropospheric trough. 
For Delhi NCR, Day gradually getting brighter, Clear Sunday night for Delhi. Monday morning low around 10c.

Monday 25th: A rainless day for the sub-continent.

Southern staes of Karnataka and TN remain dry all days.

Kolkata clear, and weekend warming up to 31c with nights around 18/19c.

Mumbai: Partly cloudy on 23rd Saturday/ 24thSunday. Not really cooling down much now. Saturday and Sunday will be in the 32-19c range. 
Mumbai's Outer townships will get partly cloudy with cumulus heads popping up on 22nd Friday. 23rd Saturday and 24th Sunday will be almost clear and warm, with days around 34/35c and nights around 18c. E/SEwinds on Monday will show further rise in day temperatures.

Pune weekend getting hot, with the maximum attempting to touch 36c.

19th and 20th..the 2 dry days forecasted shown in the rain accumulation image below..Now, as per estimate...F-3 moves into India on Thursday 21st...

and F-3 has now moved and taken over......

Seems the Low** (the low referred see below in yesterday's article) in the Arabian Sea off the Kerala/Karnataka coast  has also moved NE inland. Estimated to move N/NE from 20th..(it is a day earlier than what was said in yesterday's article)...
Forecast same as given below...F-3 over Pakistan on 21st, 22nd over India and 23rd precipitation for Delhi NCR..city forecast as below...

Southern TN , mainly the Coimbatore District, got torrential rains on Monday night. Periyanaickenpalayam got 110 mms, Annur 80 mms.
A 24 hr record breaking 98.5 mms was measured in Coimbatore AP, its highest for a 24 hr period in February, beating the previous record of 61.4 mms of 25th Feb 2000. 

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Published on Monday Night 12 mid Night:
Weather Now :
Now, with another WD on its way, this month too seems wet and cold. 
The next in line ,F-3, would reach and precipitate over Northern Pakistan and Central Sindh on 21st of Feb On 21st, Karachi will be cloudy, and rains expected in Southern Sindh region. 
19th and 20th would be almost dry for India, 21st, precipitation over the Kashmir and West Raj would resume , though light.

By 22nd, F-3 would be over India, initially covering Kashmir, HP, Punjab and Haryana. A East -West trough along the 20N line, could create some convection in the Vidharbha region on 22nd. 
**A low could possibly form on the North Karnataka/Goa coast on the 20th. This would move a bit inland, and get embedded in the trough.

By 23rd, precipitation would be covering Delhi NCR.

Mumbai starts heating up from Tuesday 19th, peaking on Thursday at 35c. 
Friday 22nd will be cloudy and a few degrees lower. Cloudy weather for Pune/Nasik and Aurangabad on Friday 22nd. 

Outer townships of Mumbai will be gettng warmer, and may reach 35c or 36c by Thursday, as SE winds take over. Partly cloudy towards the hills will ease the temps on Friday...nights will also rise gradually from Tuesday morning...finally touching 18c...by Friday

Surat, dry and heating up to 36c next few days. cooling a bit from Friday.

Next few days till Friday, Kolkata remains in the 26-15c range, with light clouds till Wednesday.
Dry for Kathmandu now, with day temperature around 22c and nights around 5c.

A Report:
January 2013, which saw 5 Western Disturbances and a severe on amonst them. Would be considered a bit above normal, considering the fact that Northern Sub-Continent region normally gets 3/4 WDs in the month.

And the WDs continued in February. F-1 ,an intense system ravaged thru Pakistan in perticular wher the 2 days accumulated rainfall was more than 200 mms in the North and NW. In India too, it was intense, with several day and month records reached or broken in rainfall and snowfall. Delhi getting 46 mms in a day !
Vagaries has mentioned some details and references to this F-1 here...

In such cases, It is found that there is sharp increase in the convergence flux of kinetic energy and weak adiabatic generation of kinetic energy over the troposphere. The vertically integrated generation of kinetic energy shows destruction in the proximity of the center of low pressure area and generation take place west of it in the intense 
western disturbance.

 See the % of normal rainfall path", along the WD route..almost...

The accumulated rains chart for the sub continent for January shows the regions having received more than 200 mms, and the anomaly chart is also clear in its depiction.

There will be a late night update tonite ..

Sunday 17th February Forecast