Saturday Morning: BB2 moves slightly North, at around 22N at 5.30am IST at 998 mb
x--------------------------x--------------------------------x-------------------------x---------------x----x
IMD bulletin announces the formation of a Low (BB2) in the Bay. 


Currently BB2 is situated almost on Orissa (around 75% on land) with a portion in the Sea of the State.Its centre is almost ver Bhubaneshwar at 20N and is at 996 mb.
Expected to track W/NW on Sunday.
See forecast put up yesterday....


As expected, on Thursday/Friday the UP region recieved heavy rains..with Meja recording 187 mms, Chatnag 156 mms, Fatehpur 130 mms and Varanasi 70 mms and Lucknow 50 mms.
The region where the Low is persisting off Orissa, is also getting good precipitation, with Bhubaneshwar recieving 105 mms, Jagtisingpur 104 mms and Joshipur 78 mms last 24 hrs.


On Friday, Pune recieved the light rain forecasted, with the guage measuring 5.4 mms in the day till evening. However, the day was pleasant at 26c. Lohegaon AP was warmerat 28.8c on Friday.
Also Mahableshwar recieved 31 mms and Ratnagiri 16 mms till Friday evening.

See IMD deficit map on Current Page...


Hottest On Friday, 20th July: Omidieh in Iran sizzled at 52.4c, Abadan (Iran) was 51.6c and Basrah in Iraq reached 51.4c on Friday...That's Hot !!  

Maharashtra reservoirs, Mumbai Lakes Position and Pune reservoirs levels updated...see Mumbai Page.


Synoptic Situation today (Thursday):


The Monsoon trough continues to run North of the normal position and runs along the Himalayan foothills. Meanwhile the off shore trough along the west coast remains strong due to Wednesday's embedded vortex. 


The Eastern trough has shortened and lies from Sikkim to the Bay.
The vortex has weakened on Thursday itself, weakening the off shore trough along the west coast. 


An UAC has formed in the North Bay, and is at around 500 hpa. 


It is likely to descend to sea level as a low by the 21st, Saturday, as a low at 998 mb. Should be positioned at around 20N, off the Orissa coast.


As it is likely to remain over the waters till Sunday, it could deepen to 996 mb, or even 994 mb by Sunday. Low will move west on Sunday/Monday and most likely fizzle out in the region around Vidharbha.


Once the low forms, we can expect the monsoon axis to slide southwards. It could be positioned from Pakistan thru Rajasthan thru North MP and Chattisgarh into the Low.(See Map)
Consequently, the West coast trough could strengthen and activate again.


Outlook Summery for Friday 20th/Saturday 21st and Sunday 22nd: 

Good Rains Likely in Vidharbha, Eastern Marathwada, Konkan, North interior AP, Chatiisgarh and Eastern MP
Heat likely in Rajasthan and adjoining Sindh (Pakistan)


Friday: The Monsoon Axis remains in the North, hence heavy rainfall is expected in UP. Region around Lucknow can recieve heavy rains on Friday.
Precipitation remains good in South Konkan/Goa, but decreases in the North Konkan region.


Saturday: As the UAC descends, rainfall in the SW quadrant of the UAC/Low increases. We may see some precipitation gathering strength in the North MP, and adjoining Vidharbha. Rains will be heavy in the Ramagundam region of AP. Light rains, upto 10 mms penetrating into Interior Karnataka and Madhya Mah.
NW India and Gujarat almost dry with no meaningfull rains.
Strong Westerly winds blowing in Saurashtra.


Sunday: Heavy rainfall area spreads a little to the west, with Vidharbha region and adjoining Marathwada and North AP getting very heavy rains. Madhya Mah too will get medium to heavy rains.
Rains will also increase along the Karnataka coast and entire Konkan belt. As the Monsoon axis moves south the off shore trough gains strenghth by Sunday.


Friday/Saturday/Sunday: For Pakistan, rains will be restricted to the Northern plains. Light rains in the North. Lahore can get some light rains.
Sindh will be dry and hot. Hot westerly winds will sweep the sindh regions, raising dust storms in some regions.
Karachi will get light drizzles, but Hyderabad will be dry, and day temperature could touch 41c. Sukkur will be dry and hotter with the day temperature at 43/44c.
I do not think there will be any effect of this low in Pakistan...but we will observe and follow the developments.


City Forecasts:


Mumbai: Gone are the signs of rainy and monsoon days..at least till Sunday !


Friday: Partly cloudy with 3/4 showers throughout the day, out of which a couple of them will be heavy in some parts of city. Rain Amount: 20 mms.


Saturday: sunny spells and partly cloudy by afternoon. showers by late afternoon/evening. But not persistent, and distributed in parts of city. Rain amount: 10-15 mms


Sunday: generally cloudy, with more frequent showers. Intensity increasing by evening, and getting heavier. Rain Amount: 30-35 mms.


Pune: Hate to put up such a miserable forecast for this city ....hopefully a better forecast from Monday !


Friday/Saturday: Partly cloudy. Few light showers or drizzles in some parts. Rain Amount: 5-7 mms.
Sunday: Cloudy in the day with light drizzle. A light shower expected in some parts by evening. Rain Amount 5-10 mms.


Surat: Friday/Saturday/Sunday: No definite indications of any meaningfull rains approaching..partly cloudy with upto 5-10 mms/day.


Delhi: Friday/Saturday might see light drizzles in some parts, more likely on Saturday afternoon. 
But Sunday will be dry and hot. Weekend temperatures to touch 40c and maybe cross 40c in NCR somewhere.


Bangalore: This city need more rains urgently...this is only an expression..and sadly the forecast is nowhere near it...Again, no rainfall increase seen these days. Just about 5 mms/day in some areas.


Chennai:  Not much rain expected this weekend for the city.

Hyderabad (India): Friday and Saturday will see light rains ,drizzle, in some parts, but a little increase in rains on Sunday. Maybe a sharper shower by sunday afternoon with rain amounts upto 10 mms.

Bolt from the Blue: Giant Flash of Lightning Seen in Saturn’s Storm..Latest from Space News on Page...Fantastic for those interested in Space Weather.

Current weather situation and city wise Forecast for the week end will be put up tonite by 10 pm....Mumbai's Thursday Forecast will appear in the box on the right side....rainfall updated on Mumbai Page...

Heavy Rains have lashed Mumbai and Satellite towns around Mumbai on Wednesday...and Navi Mumbai and around are reaching the forecasted 100 mms for Wednesday !
As as on 10.10 pm it is pouring here at Mahalaxmi. Several reports are put up on the FB page...Northern suburbs report good rains today..and around 40-45 mms mms recorded in Northern Suburbs..till now.
Mumbai rain figures (8.30am)  will be put up on Mumbai Page by tomorrow morning ..11.30 pm figures : Scruz  64 mms till 11.30 pm tonite.


Pic sent by Abhijit from Badlapur on Inter active Page.....

Modokai? Its a new concept, just discovered in 2004 by a Japanese team led by T. Yamagata (that included a prominent Indian climatologist, Dr Venkata Ratnam), and its effects are still being studied. With Rajan's expertise and guidance, Rajan and myself  have prepared an introduction to this new event..namely
"Indian Monsoon: What’s brewing in the Pacific is more likely a Modokai than a normal El Niño."...published on Rajan's Take here....those interested in meteorology, must read through this article.


As put up by Vagaries on Sunday, 15th, the UAC from the Bay crossed into Orissa and tracked into Vidharbha on Monday. 


Nagpur too, got the forecasted showers on Sunday and Monday, with 45 mms on Monday alone, and 40 mms in the day on Tuesday. 

The Vortex (off the west coast) mentioned has formed on Tuesday, 17th , and resulted in the forecasted rains (for Monday) in South Konkan and Goa, with Tadpatri getting 130 mms, Panjim Goa recieving 116 mms in 24 hrs. Ratnagiri measured 106 mms, Rajapur 93 mms, Canacona and Quepen 90 mms. Ratnagiri had  62 mms again in the day on Tuesday.
So, the vortex is active off S.Konkan. 


Now, will it move to N.Konkan as we had anticipated for Tuesday night/Wednesday ? 
Should move, as the trough is holding on, and precipitation was fairly reasonable in Mumbai from Tuesday evening, 44 mms in Scruz and 26 mms in Colaba till 8.30 pm Tuesday.(Vagaries' put up estimate 40 mms till 8.30 am Wednesday).See Mumbai Page for daily actual readings


Almost all citiy forecasts put up on Sunday were upto the mark for Monday and Tuesday. Chennai recieved 12 mms against estimate of 10-15 mms), Bangalore AP got 8 mms (10 mms) and surat and Pune are expected to get rains on Wednesday. 


The forecasts put up on Sunday valid till Thursday (below in previous blog) regional, and city wise, holds good. (It may be appreciated that Vagaries' forecasts are put up after a lot of effort, hence requires minimum changes, unless absolutely required!)


Again, Vagaries' estimate (forecasted on 12th July) low will emerge in the Bay around the 20th. It could be around the central Bay region off the Orissa or North AP coast. Tracking will be NW, maybe along the monsoon axis "corridor". MJO holds on till around 25th July...
Readers well versed with Vagaries' style of forecasting , will remember having mentioned that a low or system always would tend to track along the Monsoon axis corridor, wherever it is located.


No change in Pakistan forecast (till Thursday). Sindh will be dry except for light rains along Karachi coast.
Hyderabad will be hot, with day temperatures around 40c, with hot winds. Sukkur will also be hot, around 42/43c, and hot winds. No rainfall expected this week.

For Gujarati Readers, a Translated version (from Akila , Saurashtra), appears on  Current Weather Page....

When we talk about weak monsoons, let us first compare this year's figures with some of the other weak monsoon deficit years.

2009 saw the lowest rainfall (all India) in several decades. End of July in 2009 was at an unbelievable deficit of -47 %. It ended up with an end of season deficit of -28%. 
For an on date comparison of 2009, see Vagaries' Blog of this date here
On this page, Please move on to 16th July (2009) write up.
Check the rainfall figures for Gujarat on this date...havn't seen such figures in years.. 

1972 was also a drought year with the season's deficit at -24%. End July was at -31% in 1972.
The worst ever for drought ever in India was in 1877 when the monsoon deficit was at an ashtonishing -29%.

Current Weather:
Last few days, TN, AP and parts of Interior Karnataka got the much needed precipitation. As Venkatesh points out, it has reduced the deficit in the region and provided the much needed moisture in the interiors.
In TN, heavy rainfall was recorded in Alangayam  (dist Vellore) 11, Paiyur AWS (dist Krishnagiri) 9 and Vaniaymbadi (dist Vellore) 9, besides many station between 3-9 cms. With some rains, Chennai AP has crossed the 100 mms mark and is at 109 mms.

In AP, Chittoor (dist Chittoor) 13, Rajahmundry (East Godavari dt) 11, Avanigadda (Krishna dt) 10, Palamner (dist Chittoor) 10, Shriramsag.pocha (dist Nizamabad) 7 and several other stations below 7 cms.

Though Karnataka interiors did not recieve such heavy rains, at Bangarpet (Kolar dt) 8, Karwar 7, Manki (Uttara Kannada dt) and Hoskote (Bangalore rural dt) 6 each. A begining has been made with rains between 1-3 cms. Bangalore city got some rains, managing 12 mms, pushing up the season's total to 27 mms.

An off shore trough extends along the Eastern Coast of india, from the "low" over the NE States (the East end of the Monsoon Axis)crossing the coast into Interior TN. The trough encouraged and aided the formation of Thunderclouds in the Interiors of the Southern States due to drop in pressures at various levels.
The susequent rainfall along the trough was not predicted by any model, and formed as a result of the Eastern end of the Monsoon axis getting strong.

Outlook:Monday 16th:
Substantially reduced rainfall in TN and Karnataka. 
S.I. Karnataka will get some showers (10-15 mms) and Interior TN west of Chennai will get precipitation upto 15 mms. 
As the off shore trough off the west coast starts strengthening along South Konkan /Goa, medium/heavy precipitation expected in the region.
West Vid could get light to medium showers in the day.

Tuesday :17th
The off shore trough along the west coast extend upto N.Konkan, while, and UAC embedded in the Eastern coast trough moves West from Chennai (inland).S.I. karnataka gets light rainfall.
Heavy rain/Thundershower in Nagpur on Tuesday night, extending into Wednesday morning.


Wednesday 18th: 
Reduction in rains in Karnataka and TN. An off shore vortex could form off the Mumbai coast on Wednesday. Stations along Konkan will get between 100-150 mms.
Precipitation upto 15 mms expected in Vidarbha on Wednesday. South Interior Mah could get rains upto 30-40 mms.

Saurashtra region does not get any meaningfull rains on these 3 days.

Rains in N.Pakistan will decrease from Tuesday.Light rains along Sindh Coast will prevail till Tuesdaywith Karachi getting light rains. 

City Forecasts for Monday16th/Tuesday17th/Wed 18th:
All City Rain Amounts 8.30am-8.30am next Day:
Mumbai: 
Monday: Cloudy morning. A couple of sharp showers in the afternoon. Passing showers in some parts in the late evening/night. Rain Amount: 20-25 mms
Tuesday: Overcast morning, with 2/3 showers in the day. Rainfall increasing by evening. Heavy rains at night. Rain Amounts: 40 mms. 
Wednesday: Cloudy day with frequent showers, at times heavy in the afternoon. Heavy rains with thunder on Wednesday night. Rain Amount: 60 mms.
Satellite Towns like Panvel and Navi Mumbai could get heavier rains on Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly crossing 100 mms on Wednesday.


Pune: Monday partly cloudy with light drizzles. 
Rainfall shows a slight increase from Tuesday, with a heavy shower expected in the evening/night.
Wednesday: Overcast cool day. Several light/mdium showers with rain amount around 20-25 mms.

Surat: Monday/Tuesday: Cloudy with a few showers in the day. Rain amounts 10 mms/day.
Wednesday: Overcast with heavy showers with thunder. Increase in rain amount to 40 mms.


Delhi/Haryana: A thundershower in some parts on Monday. Rain Amount: 5-10 mms. Tuesday/Wednesday will be almost dry and partly cloudy.

Chennai: 
Monday: Could get a shower by evening.
Tuesday: A few showers in the daytime, with rainfall amounting to 10-15 mms.
Wednesday: Cloudy with light drizzles.

Bangalore: 
Monday: Light showers possible with a cloudy day. Rain upto 10 mms.
Tuesday: Cloudy with light rains in the day.

Is India Water Starved ?


Come Monsoon, and every Indian looks up to the skies, checks the forecast models, measures and checks every possible parameter, from the Pacific Ocean water temperatures to the High pressure off the Australian Coast. All and sundry are talking about an "El-Nino" or a "Low Pressure" having formed somewhere...(on asking someone what is a Low Presuure, the reply I got was "an area of Low Temperature forming clouds"). 


Its always good to know whats coming and how much is coming. 
But why is it that we are so much, in fact totally depended on these 4 months of Monsoon rains. 
In the event of a Monsoon failure, which could mean a mere 20% deficiency, our economy is hit, inflation rises and rural capacity declines to hit the FMCG production lines. 


Is this worthy of a growing super economy? Have we over-rated ourselves ?


The obviuos solution is prudent and honest water management. Indians are very capable and intelligent enough to plan and re-organise the country's water resources. They, or any officials do not need to travel abroad to "learn" and "study" these things.


So, what's the way out of this dependency ?
Make Water a National Asset. Remove or dilute the State's monopolistic control over "their" waters. 


India gets more than sufficient rainfall, 120 cms annually, against a Global avaerage of 100 cms. India is NOT a water starved country ! Even a deficit of 20% ( official Drought Figure) would bring 96 cms rain ! 


As most of this rain is in the 4 months from June- September, it is necassary to prudently store and conserve this water to prevent floods and drought. Store the waters in reservoirs and enhance irrigation needs. The U.S. has stored water in dams for more than 2 years !India has barely enough to meet 1 year's requirement. 
Storage in a systematic manner is also a must, as India also banks on hydro-electric generation. Can we even afford a shortage of electricity ? What happens to our promised 8% and above growth rate ?


Change crop patterns susequently and, thru proper planned irrigation, increase crop out put.
I kg of rice needs 4200 ltrs of water, 1 kg of wheat requires 780 ltrs and sugar cane (sugar) much more. With knowledge of stored water capacity, crops can be planned well in advance before sowing.
Unless the poor farmer is guided, how is he going to manage his crop planning. He does not have a drawing board to make short term and long term plans, he has no access to weather know how, and does not even know tomorrow's weather eventuality. 


Urban centres cam play a very crucial role. Proper planning by the local bodies, as well as rain water harvesting is a must. 
Chennai has set the best example in this. 
Mumbai needs to first repair its "thousands" of leakages in the pipelines bringing water to the city from the Lakes.


Only a devoted and mature policy and attitude can end India's water woes..other wise...



Comments and views most welcome, or should I say, necassary.


Some excerpts taken From "The Business Standard"...

Mumbai Page updated upto Saturday Morning..Vagaries Forecast translated to Gujarati   in Saurashtra Press..see Page.


Changing Topics..Something Totally different..Mysterious Sounds Made by the Aurora Borealis...See Space News Page...


Outlook for the weekend: Fri 13th/Sat 14th/Sun 15th:

The Monsoon Axis has shifted to the Himalayan Foothills. For the regions South of the axis, it means a weak Monsoon Condition. 
Weak monsoon conditions for the interior Peninsula and the west coast, and eastern coastal regions.


Rain fall will decrease substantially in the regions South of the Punjab/Haryana/Delhi/UP W Bengal line. 
Interior Mah, Interior Karnataka, Saurashtra remain almost without any meaningfull rains. (See Aurangabad district Page). 


It also translates to a very heavy rainfall to the Sikkim and NE States, hampering relief work. Punjab regions too get heavy rains on Friday.


Outlook For Mon 16th/Tues 17th/Wed 18th:
An UAC is likely to move into Orissa on Sunday, and move NW thru the Orissa/East Vid/Chattisgarh region on Monday, 16th. Seeing the situation, the monsoon axis may slide down South (upto Rajasthan) again by mid next week. West Coast trough possibly gains from Tuesday 17th.


Meanwhile, the MJO seems to be "holding" till the 22nd July at least. Could expect a Vortex off Mah.coast around Wednesday. A low off the Orissa coast could be expected in the Bay late next week.
Shall monitor and keep posting.


In Pakistan, the Monsoon will bring Precipitation in the North. Lahore can get heavy rain on Friday evening night. 
Karachi will have a cloudy weekend with light drizzles in some parts. Monsoon has moved into the region (See Current Page Map). Strong SW winds likely next 2 days.
Very strong SW dust raising winds are likely in Southern Sindh on the weekend.




Week End City Forecasts:


Mumbai:( maintained the same as put up yesterday,added Sunday today)
Friday: Partly cloudy morning, and 3/4 (a couple heavy) showers post noon. Rain Amount 8.30am Friday-8.30am Sat: 10-15 mms. 


Saturday: Decreasing Rains. Hot sunny spells, with short cloudy periods. Few showers with rain amount till Sunday 8.30am :upto 10 mms.  

Sunday: Sunny spells in the morning and partly cloudy later. A couple of Showers. Rain amounts 8.30am Sunday -8.30 am Monday: 5-10 mms.


Pune:
Friday/Saturday/Sunday: What do i Forecast ? Nothing to shout about, Same. partly cloudy and light drizzles with rains upto 5 mms /day.


Surat: Also nothing much to cheer for the weekend. Partly cloudy with some showers, upto 10 mms /day.


Delhi: 
Friday, Delhi gets a few showers heavy in some parts, cloudy day. From Friday night, Delhi and Haryana get good rains till Mid day Saturday. 
Decreasing rains from Sunday.


Bangalore: Partly cloudy with sunny spells. Nothing to cheer for the city...light drizzles for the weekend. Rains around 5-10 mms/day.