Having pushed the South West monsoon down,the first W.D. of the winter has immiedietly arrived over the northern areas of Pakistan and India.The system is moderate and has poured fairly good amounts of rain over Pakistan today.Rawalpindi 43mm and other stations between 20-40mm.Srinagar had a cloudy day and the day temperature dropped from yesterdays 27° to 17° (-5°c below normal) today.Early arrival of a moderate W.D. will bring in the cooler climes to the Northern parts of the sub continent and drier air will push down over central India.

Meanwhile the rain figures for the monsoon season for some Maharashtra cities (with last years rain in brackets) are:

Mumbai Colaba: 2377mm (2316mm),Santacruz:3030mm (3321mm),Pune:1151mm (1260mm),Mahableshwar:8478mm (8628mm).

Now, with the anticyclone well placed over the North and the west, it seems the monsoon has finally moved out and widhrawn from the peninsular, at least from above the 15°N. I say it seems as the IMD has not officially widhrawn the monsoon from below the 20°N. till 12th October. From my personal jottings, I read that one of the later dates of monsoon widhrawal for Mumbai, in the recent past was 17th October in 1983.

For the month of October, Mumbai (Colaba) has had 246mm of rain and Santacruz 200mm as on date. However, for the rcords, the wettest October for Colaba was in 1917, when the month had 507 mm.

With the monsoon now over from the major portion of North and central India, the temperatures are rising due to the absence of W.D. and cooler winds from the North West. Temperatures in most parts of India, except the South, are 3-5°c above normal. See map.

Also, most of the sub continent is quite (after4 months), and will remain so for a week at least, before the winter rains start in the south. There may be some precipitation in the extreme north due to the W.D. now over the middle east.

The off shore trough along the west coast persists,and continues to produce some pockets of heavy rain along the coast ,measuring 4-6cms,along the west coast,upto Mumbai.Mumbai had a a drizzle today morning with thunder and lightning.This trough will remain for another 24 hrs. before the anticyclone pushes down and drives the South West Monsoon away.The South West Monsoon has widhdrawn upto 20°N as on 9th.October.The North East Monsoon will then set in,as indicated by a few models.It is likely to set in by 14th./15th.
Just like a busy Pacific season had a favourable impact on the South West Monsoon,the development of the El Nino effect is to be watched on the Winter Monsoon in South India.

The persistant remnant of 05B in the Arabian Sea has finally dissoved and is now converted to a trough of low presurre off the west coast.The trough should be active for another day or two and precipitate more rain in interior Maharashtra and may keep the widhrawal on hold for a couple of days. No major weather development may take place in the regions of Maharashtra,Gujarat and the central peninsular from the 9th.,resulting in the widhrawal of the monsoon.The developing low in the bay,will then move towards the South India coast and commence the North East Monsoon.

As mentioned,the temperatures in the areas devoid of the monsoon are high for this time with Turbat in Pakistan going to 44°c today,and Ganganagar in Rajasthan at 41°c.However the minimums are 1-2°c above the normal.

An interesting development is the returning trend of the El Nino.
NASA satellites indicate El Nino has returned to the tropical Pacific Ocean, although in a relatively weak condition that may not persist.
During the past several weeks, satellites have observed a general warming of ocean temperatures. However it still weak and the progress has to be monitored.

With the monsoon still hovering over peninsular India, the advent of winter conditions seem to be somewhat halted, at least in Northern most parts of India and North West India. The day temperatures are above normal over the northern parts as is apparent from this map. The maximum temperatures elsewhere in Middle east are also still high with Makkah at 43°c, Sharjah and Nawabshah at 42°c and Muscat Airport and Dubai at 41°c. With the advent of a W.D. (not yet in formation), the winter temperatures may start falling. Daytime highs in Pakistan and India are 41° to 40° at their highest now.

Elsewhere in U.K. the scene is similar, with above normal temperatures. An interesting write up in the BBC on 3rd, produced below, says it all.
"Two countries on opposite sides of the world have experienced the warmest September for almost a century. Both the UK and parts of Australia have been basking in unseasonably warm weather, with temperatures several degrees above the average. Some western parts of Victoria, Australia, have recorded the warmest September since 1907. In Horsham the average maximum temperature for September worked out to be 20.4C (69F), almost 3C above what it should be in September. This is also just 0.5C below the all time record for the warmest September, which was 20.9C in 1907. Temperature records have also been smashed here in the UK. September 2006 has proved to be the warmest September since records began. Both day-time and night-time temperatures averaged out at 15.4C (60F), which is 3.1C above the long term average. This smashed the previous record of 14.7C (58F), which was set in 1949. Night-time minimum temperatures were the main contributor to this record breaker. The average minimum temperature across the UK calculated to be 11.5C (53F), which is almost 1C above the previous record of 10.6C (51F), also set in 1949. This record breaking month follows ‘hot’ on the heels of the all-time warmest month on record, which was July 2006. The average daily temperature (both day and night) was 17.8C (64F), and the average maximum temperature was 23.1C (74F)."

October began damp and unexpectedly wet for coastal Mahatashtra,and specially Mumbai.The depression 05B fizzled out over interior Maharashtra,but not before dumping record rains over Mumbai.

For Mumbai,the 1st.day of October was wet,thundery and squally.High velocity NorthWesterly gusts swept the city,(anti clockwise movement of the system),and with extremely violent thunder and lightening,the parting monsoon was unleashing all its energy over the city.

On the 1st.,between 08.30hrs. and 20.30hrs.,the city had recorded 81mm and between 20.30hrs. and 08.30hrs. of the 2nd. Mumbai recorded another 114mm.So in the 24hr. period of recording, Mumbai had 194.4mm of rain.This is a record for Mumbai for a 24 hr.period for October.The previous record was way back on 5th.October 1917,when 148.6mm of rain was measured.This is against an average of 65mm expected in October.And all this on the first day of the month.

Coastal areas too had heavy rain.The Maharashtra weather report for 2nd.October gives the rain figures of the other places.Note that the first 10 places mentioned in the rainfall list are on the west coast.

With the system waning now,the monsoon too may start loosing intensity.But there is an odd chance of another system developing in the Bay.It has to be watched initially,though it is likely to move North.

The month of September over and the rain fall figures are back to normal for the country as a whole. The monsoon has withdrawn from the North and North West only. And West U.P., Haryana, Delhi and the N.East top the rain deficit list. Rest of India is excess or normal. There is an odd chance for the N.East to recover if a low from the Bay recurves and drifts North.

With the Monsoon still active in Maharshtra, the figures are: Mumbai Colaba 2131mm(+106), Santa Cruz 2830 mm (+566), Mahableshwar 8316 mm (+2735), Pune 1104 mm (+550).

With another low expected in the bay by 4th.Oct, we will have to watch its movement to forecast its strenght and course. Only hint we have is that the sea temperature of the bay is now moderate, and is seen here.