see on Space News Page

COMET LEMMON AND THE GEOMAGNETIC STORM:

19th Night Post:

Rains that Refuse to go away ! 

Multiple systems on both sides... (One unseasonal) will be bringing unseasonably Rainy Weather to Maharashtra.

Mumbai :

October 

20/21/22nd: :   ⛅35°~24°c

23/24th:     ⛅☔: 31°~23°c

25/26th:         ⛅☔⛈: 31°~21°c

Pune :

Date:20/21st:   ⛅: 32°~21°c

Date22/23 /24/25th:   ⛅⛈ 31°~19°c 

👆Mumbai /Pune outlook valid till 25th..rain may increase on 26th.. So will update nearer the date. 

Sambhajinagar : Date:20th~25th:     ⛅☔:32° ~21°c

Jalgaon :

Date: 20~ 25th:   ⛅ 34°~23 °c

Goa:

Date: 20 ~ 25th : ⛅⛈ 34°~24°c

Gujarat : Hot & Dry.. Saurastra around36°~23°c 

and Surat/Valsad in the range of 35°~23c °

 Interesting video of outlook and 4 systems as estimated for 21st October. Lets see the Diwali outcome

 18th October 

Max temperatures range in some cities last one month:

 

Chicago winter could be coldest, snowiest in years thanks to weather phenomenon called "The Blob"....On World Weather News Page

North East Monsoon circulation and associated rainfall sets in over southern peninsular India:

 The large scale atmospheric circulation over the Asian Monsoon domain underwent a seasonal shift during the past two to three weeks and has now gradually settled towards a boreal autumn-winter time type circulation pattern. This shift includes a major change in the structure of the atmospheric column from a Baroclinic atmosphere that prevailed during the boreal summer monsoon season to a Barotropic/Equivalent Barotropic atmosphere which is currently observed. To easily understand and perceive this, one can see the recent changes that have taken place in the prevailing low level wind pattern which was predominantly south westerlies for the past 4 months has now shifted to north easterlies over the north Indian Ocean (The Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal) and the adjoining South China Sea. Also, one can note the associated sign reversal in the pole to equatorward temperature gradient over the south Asian region which is in association with the southward migrating quasi-stationary atmospheric heat source during this time of the year. All these changes have led to the withdrawal of the wet summer monsoon rainy season from over a larger part of India and a simultaneous start of the north east monsoon rainfall season over the south east peninsular India. Along with these seasonal shifts that is taking place in the background, the region of anomalous enhanced tropical convection, especially the low frequency component continues to be dominated by a La Nina/ Negative IOD signal over the Maritime Continent and the Eastern equatorial Indian Ocean which is prevailing as a source region for several eastward (Kelvin wave) and westward (Equatorial Rossby waves) propagating moist equatorial waves. Currently, an ER wave is seen propagating westwards over the central equatorial Indian Ocean, whose northern part is causing widespread rainfall in the southern states of India including Tamil Nadu. Global Numerical Weather Prediction Models on the medium range period, indicate that more such ER waves could form and propagate along the equatorial Indian ocean in the days to come as an MJO signal is about to constructively interfere with the low frequency signal. This could eventually lead to an uptick in the genesis of synoptic scale low pressure systems as well over the oceanic regions.

15th October..Todays rain

Rainfall 11pm(Compiled by Abhijit Modak) today on 15-10-25

Sangulwadi 93 mm 

Dudhganga 92 

Deoghar 64 

Vaibhavwadi 62 Walwan 55 Panshet dam 46 Patgaon 44 Sarambal 40 Shirgaon 37 Sawarde 35 Mahabaleshwar 34 KondFanasvane 29 

Ghisar 29 Kumbhi & Davdi 27 

Dajipur 25  Chiplun & Velha 25 

Chatav & Kashedi Kumbhe 21 

Lavel 20 

Oros 19 

Kaas 18 Awalegaon & Varandoli 17 Ratnagiri 14 Bhimashankar & Kharepatan 11 mms. 

-----------------'

Aashay Measurements Pvt Ltd.

Pune 

DATE 15-10-2025

Time: 6:45 PM 

Rainfall  🌨 🌨

Ambegaon Katraj, Pune = 12.8 mm

Khadakwasla = 12.4 mm

Warje, Pune = 11.8 mm

Garware, Deccan Pune = 6.4 mm 

 --------------------

Mahabaleshwar: 12 mms

Sangli : 12 mms

Ratnagiri: 11 mms

The Greatest Bird Migration on Record! Weather Played a Major Role.

 

The Greatest Bird Migration on Record! Weather Played a Major Role.

14th October Post:

1. Monsoon withdrawn...Yes

2.West Monsoon Wind over...Yes

3. Humidity Down...yes

but 4. Rains over...NO...Post Monsoon Rains expected now...Mumbai is not done with yet !

Mumbai;

17th/18th/19th: Cloudy with light rains expected in various parts of Mumbai. 

20th/21st/22nd: Light to moderate rains with occasional thunder. (Pushing into Diwali)

Pune: After enjoying pleasant nights, clouds coming again

15th/16th: Moderate rains expected in Pune

17th-20th: Moderate to heavy rains in many parts of Pune:

Sambhajinagar: 17th - 21st:Light to moderate rains expected. Please finish cutting fast...Storage to be done with cover.

संभाजीनगर: १७ ते २१ तारखेला: हलक्या ते मध्यम पावसाची अपेक्षा आहे. कृपया लवकर कापणी पूर्ण करा... झाकण ठेवून साठवणूक करावी.

 Monday 13th evening precipitation

 

 12th October...

Monsoon Withdrawal details and withdrawal limit in images 

 See also Author's Page

Harold] Pierce says:

October 11, 2025 at 4:26 PM

There is no such phenomena as anthropogenic climate change because most of the earth is water, rocks, sand, ice and snow. Activities of humans are not going to effect the climate of the vast Pacific ocean, the Andes mountains or the Sahara desert. However, activities of humans in urban areas can effect local climate due to the UHI effect. In some countries, humans can cause local desertification by stripping the land of plants for firewood and for food for animals.

One extreme weather event are Atlantic hurricanes
, the frequency of which has greatly declined since 1900. So far this hurricane season has been a bust.

 11th October 

First Snowfall

Gulmarg, Sonmarg and Rohtang : Season’s First Snowfall

The first snowfall of 2025 has turned the Western Himalayas into a winter wonderland.

Popular hill stations like Gulmarg and Sonmarg in Jammu & Kashmir and Rohtang Pass in Himachal Pradesh have been blanketed in snow, marking onset of winter.

Extract from " Weather &Radar"

 Monsoon arrived in Mumbai/Pune: 26th May...

Monsoon Withdrawal for 

Mumbai/Pune: 10th Oct:

(Total Monsoon rainfall from May - 10th October 

Mumbai Colaba: 2838 mms

                Scruz: 3522 mms 

WSC: 3552 MMS

Pune:1101 mms.)

On Vagaries estimated date...

10th October...Southwest Monsoon has withdrawn from Mumbai, Pune and most of Northern Maharashtra!

SWM withdrawal from Mumbai/North Konkan and Pune/North Madhya Maharashtra declared

Mumbai & Interior Maharashtra, Hot daytime weather likely, lower humidity...but night and early morning can be slightly pleasant.

Mumbai nights can drop to 21/22° 

Humidity will fall to 60%..sweaty feel may decrease.

Pune Nashik Sambhajinagar to 17/18° from 10th to 16th.

*Note: Chances of post monsoon rain/thundershowers  for Mumbai/Pune/Konkan/Ghats from 17th October, so plan Diwali shopping activities accordingly*

Mumbai has slight chances of light post monsoon showers on 17th,18th,19th.

Pune post monsoon rains on 16th,17th,18th a surety.

Sambhajinagar look out for post monsoon rains on 16th to 19th.

Please complete harvesting till then.

10th October Post

Please Read ENSO Scenario on Current Weather Page

A lot is being "heard" about La Nina event possibly occurring this winter...and North India should be prepared for an extreme winter !

On Current Weather Page ...Please read  the explanation and current scenario of La Nina.

Indicates possibility of the event only after December 2025.

-------------------------------------------------------------------- 

Is North India Heading for an Extreme Winter?

A lot is being “heard” about a possible La Niña event developing this winter — with suggestions that it could bring a harsh season for North India.

However, the La Niña indicators currently point to it's start only after December 2025, meaning the most pronounced impact may be felt in January–February 2026.

❄️ Overall Outlook

The North Subcontinent is expected to witness a higher frequency of Western Disturbances, bringing more rain and snow to the northern hills and plains.

This will translate to colder-than-normal conditions, especially in January 2026, which could see multiple cold day and cold wave events.

“Possible La Niña After December — Signs Point to a Colder, Snowier Winter Across North India”

🏔️ North India

Frequent Western Disturbances likely.

Heavy snowfall expected in Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.

Day temperatures in the plains (Punjab, Delhi, Haryana, West U.P., Rajasthan) may hover between 10°C and 15°C.

Night temperatures near freezing in Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan.

Sub-zero readings likely in Churu, Shekhawati, Alwar, and Mount Abu.

Maharashtra

Cold wave conditions will set in late December and continue through January.

Nashik and Pune: Lows below 7°C during cold waves ( January).

Ahilyanagar and Sambhajinagar: Around 8–9°C on coldest nights (January).

Mumbai:

December to remain near-normal with 16–20°C lows.

January may turn notably cooler, dipping to 12–15°C during cold spells.

Gujarat

Cold wave likely from late December through January.

Kutch region: Lows near freezing possible.

Saurashtra and Gujarat region: Minimums of 7–10°C on cold wave nights.

-=================================================================------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

P

 Excessive Rainfall In Sambhajinagar Region in 2025 Monsoon:

Rain Total From June - 7th October

Soegaon 944 mms,

Phulambri: 727 mms,Paithan: 942 mms,

Sillod 872 mms,

Babaran: 855 mms

Sambhajinagar 771 mms, 

Vadod Bazar : 716 mms

२०२५ च्या मान्सूनमध्ये संभाजीनगर विभागात अतिवृष्टी: जून ते ७ ऑक्टोबर या कालावधीत एकूण पाऊस सोयगाव ९४४ मिमी, फुलंब्री: ७२७ मिमी पैठण: ९४२ मिमी, सिल्लोड ८७२ मिमी, बाबरण: ८५५ मिमी संभाजीनगर ७७१ मिमी, वडोद बाजार: ७१६ मिमी

Monsoon Withdrawal for 

Mumbai/Pune: 9th Oct:

(Total Monsoon rainfall from May - 7th October 

Mumbai Colaba: 2831 mms

                Scruz: 3522 mms 

WSC: 3552 MMS

Pune:1089 mms.)

10th October: Rest of Maharashtra.  

10th October: Gujarat State.

6th October Night:

With the Cyclone away from Indian Coast,  let us move to the anticipated extreme W.D. weather in the North. Refer post of 2nd October 

It's winter in the Northern States:

Uttarakhand's Kedarnath temple receives snowfall

Posted 6th Morning

Mumbai:

* Mumbaikars seem to be really " tired" with the May -October rainy spell. 😒

* Well, Mumbai has now to get only light passing showers in some areas on 6th - 8th.

* Not much of rain from 9th, as we anticipate the Monsoon to ( finally) bid adiu by 11th October.

* Mumbai may see rise in day temperatures from 10th and a fall in the humidity levels.

Pune:

* Pune Region may get some sharp retreating localised thundershowers on 8th - 10th.

...(South konkan and Goa has higher chances).

* And then finally, ending the rainy season.

Monsoon may withdraw from Marathwada by 12th.

Gujarat: Monsoon will withdraw from entire State by 9th October. 

NO ALERTS 

 SWM 2025 END OF SEASON STATISTICS IN CHARTS!

Salient Features of SWM 2025:

# Total Average Area Weighted Rainfall for Goa during June + July + Aug + Sept 2025 was 3134 mm (123.4"), just 4% over normal rainfall of 3008 mm. For comparison, last year 2024, Goa had received 4401 mm (173") seasonal rainfall, 46% in excess! (CHART 1)

# But this year IMD declared one of the earliest Monsoon onset in Goa on 25th May and during the pre-monsoon season ending 31st May, Goa received unprecedented 857 mm (33.74"), most of it in May. Thus total of Pre-Monsoon and SWM Rainfall would be 3134 + 857 = 3991 mm , nearly 4000 mm!

# MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION:

July with 1189 mm accounted for 38% of the seasonal rain. August was 897 mm (29%), June was 792 mm (25%) while September with 256 mm accounted for just 8% of the seasonal rains.(CHART 3)

In fact, September rainfall of 256 mm was the lowest since 2018 when only 94 mm was recorded in September. (CHART 4)

Month-wise departures from normal rainfall show that June was deficient by -13% & September by -20%, while July was excess by +14% and August by a whopping +23%! (CHART 2)

# From June 1 to September 30, only 15 days were days with 2.5 mm or less rains per day. Of these 4 days were in June, only 2 in August, 9 in September and NIL in July! July 3 with 161 mm and August 28 with 160 mm were the wettest days! (CHART 6)

# Interior areas of Goa, nearer the Ghats received more rainfall than other areas. Dharbandora 162 mm, Sanguem 161 mm, Valpoi 159 mm and Quepem 151 mm were the wettest places. Coastal areas of Mormugao 84 mm, Dabolim 85 mm & Panaji 100 mm received the lowest rainfall. (CHART 5)

Check the Charts for details!

** Rainfall Data and Daily Rainfall Chart from IMD Goa Center. Data Compilation and other charts by Weather Vagaries Goa **

ADT-Version 9.1                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  03 OCT 2025    Time :   153000 UTC
      Lat :   22:00:04 N     Lon :   66:03:16 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.2 / 994.2mb/ 49.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                3.2     3.0     3.0

 Center Temp : -55.6C    Cloud Region Temp : -57.1C

 Final Rainfall Topper in mm for the SWM 2025 (122 days from June 1 to Sep 30)

On Pradeep's Page

Monsoon 2025 Delhi

Delhi Safdarjung recorded 902.6mm rain this monsoon, making it the 4th wettest monsoon since 2009. Data: IMD

The attached graph shows the daily rain variation in Delhi this monsoon.

Monsoon rain in Delhi since 2009 as follows
2009: 588mm
2010: 1031.5mm
2011: 617.9mm
2012: 544.3mm
2013: 875.8mm
2014: 370.8mm
2015: 515.1mm
2016: 524.1mm
2017: 673.1mm
2018: 770.6mm
2019: 404.1mm
2020: 579.8mm
2021: 1169.7mm
2022: 516.9mm
2023: 660.8mm
2024: 1029.9mm

2025: 902.6mm

Record cool September for Pune

September 2025 was the coolest September (maximum temperature-wise) for Pune Shivajinagar at least since 2014 with avg. maximum temperature 28.08c.

In terms of minimum temperature Pune Shivajinagar avg. minimum temperature this September was 21.13 which was the lowest after 2018. Data: IMD

Weather outlook for October first week: Strong Western Disturbance for Western and Central Himalayas, twin low pressures and Monsoon persisting

Chances of moderate-heavy rain in low to mid elevations and moderate-heavy snow in high elevations of Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Nepal during 4th to 7th October. Rains/thunderstorms for the northern plains.

Red alert for Himalayas!

Possible cause: Jet Stream Dynamics...reasoning given below:

• A very strong dip in the Polar Jet Stream over Europe will cause it to split, with southern part merging with the subtropical westerly jet stream near Mediterranean/west Asia region with a powerful midlatitude storm at the surface over the Mediterranean Sea and a very strong trough aloft.

    Trough in the subtropical westerly Jet Stream over the eastern Mediterranean on 3rd October (note: Map does not depict the actual boundaries of all the countries)

• The upper level trough over the Mediterranean is likely to get further amplified by the merging of Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda into the Jet Stream across the Atlantic (energy propagating downstream from the region of peak winds, downstream amplification of trough).

• The energy from this trough over eastern Mediterranean will propagate east and cause another strong trough to develop downstream (further east of the parent trough) over the Western Himalayas from 4th/5th October onwards.

IMD GFS model forecast of 200 hPa winds for 6th October.

ECMWF model forecast for the same (note: Map does not depict the actual boundaries of all the countries)

• This WD trough as it deepens, can interact with the newly formed monsoon deep depression BB-15 and cause heavy rains for central and eastern Nepal, Sikkim, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Bhutan and parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during 4th/5th October.

850 hPa winds showing BB-14 off Saurashtra coast (depression) and BB-15 off the AP coast (deep depression).

• The WD trough will become strong enough to dip south up to the northern Arabian Sea by 5th/6th, pulling in strong moist southwesterly winds till the western Himalayas, bringing unseasonably heavy rain/snow.

• There is already good moisture over western states from SW winds because of the depression BB-14 off the Saurashtra coast. BB-14 could intensify into a deep depression and will continue to push SW winds into Gujarat and Rajasthan.

Due to this, rains/thunderstorms also expected across Jammu, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, western Maharashtra and western Madhya Pradesh from 5th to 7th October.

SW Monsoon withdrawal will be delayed due to the additional moisture push from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal due to the WD and monsoon depressions BB-14 and BB-15.

However, after the WD moves away eastwards, winds are expected to quickly reverse with a ridge establishing over Rajasthan and dry northerlies expected across north, west and central India.

A quick exit of monsoon could happen from entire Gujarat and many parts of Maharashtra around 13th/14th October...more details on monsoon withdrawal in subsequent days.

Final Rainfall Topper in mm for the SWM 2025 (122 days from June 1 to Sep 30)

On Pradeep's Page

Final Rainfall Topper in mm for the SWM 2025 (122 days from June 1 to Sep 30)

Some fun facts. Cherrapunji recorded 4355 mm rainfall for the monsoon season which is the lowest ever beating the previous record of 4969 mm in the year 1884. Chinnakallar in Tamil Nadu recorded 4355 mm which equal the Cherrapunji numbers.

Tamini 9380 is by far the wettest place in India and might be the wettest place in world in this period.

The driest place in this monsoon many parts of Tiruppur, Ramanthapuram and Thoothukudi districts in Tamil Nadu with not a drop of rain falling in the entire 122 days. All the driest places are from Tamil Nadu. Certain regions of Thoothukudi, Nellai, Ramanathapuram, Dindigul, Coimbatore and Tiruppur are dry regions in SWM.

All India Toppers
------------------
1. Tamini, Maharashtra - 9380
2. Hulikal, Karnataka - 7903
3. Patherpunj, Maharashtra - 7633
4. Masthikatte, Karnataka – 7551
5. Shirgaon, Maharashtra - 7459
6. Mani, Karnataka - 7277
7. Dawadi, Maharashtra - 7164
8. Amboli, Maharashtra - 7058
9. Agumbe, Karnataka – 6861

10. Dongerwadi, Maharashtra - 6747

Maharashtra
------------
1. Tamini - 9380

2. Patherpunj - 7633
3. Shirgaon - 7459
4. Dawadi - 7164

5. Amboli - 7058

6. Dongerwadi - 6747

7. Dajipur - 6637

8. Walwan - 6590

9. Paragon - 6590

10. Ambona - 6562

Karnataka

-------------
1. Hulikal, Shivamogga - 7903

2. Masthikatte, Shivamogga - 7551
3. Mani, Shivamogga - 7277
4. Agumbe, Shivamogga – 6861
5. Castle Rock, Uttar Kannada - 6692
6. Surlabbi, Kodagu - 6686
7. Chakra, Shivamogga - 6627
8. Yadur, Shivamogga - 6504
9. Nilkund, Uttar Kannada - 6504
10. Savehaklu, Shivamogga - 6434

Kerala
---------
1. Kakkyam Dam, Kozhikode – 5692
2. Painavu, Idukki – 4396
3. Pulingome, Kannur - 4395
4. Payyavoor, Kannur – 4216
5. Kottiyoor, Kannur – 4089
6. Kakki Dam, Pathanamthitta - 3987
7.  Kulamavu, Idukki - 3765 
8. Alakkode, Kannur – 3733
9. Peruvannamuzhi, Kozhikode – 3550
10. Paika, Kasargode - 3545

Goa
------
1. Dharbondara – 4114
2. Sanguem – 4096
3. Valpoi - 3983
4. Quepem – 3847
5. Ponda – 3286

Tamil Nadu
-------
1. Chinnakallar – 4355
2. Avalanche – 3443
3. Valparai PTO – 3058
4. Nelliyam - 2592
5. Pandalur - 2433

West Bengal 
---------
1. Buxaduar - 3020
2. Alipurduar - 2678
3. Banarhat - 2423
4. Maynagiri - 2255
5. Malbazzar - 2222

Meghalaya
------------
1. Mawsynram - 5356
2. RKM Cherrapunji - 4561
3. Cherrapunji – 4355

Uttrakhand
---------
1. Sama – 4528
2. Loharkhet – 4040

Gujarat
------------
1. Kaprada – 3890
2. Umerpada – 3179
3. Khergam - 2998 
4. Dharampur - 2862
5. Dolvan – 2793

Andaman & Nicobar Islands
------------
1. Long Island - 2554
2. Port Blair - 2331
3. Mayabunder - 2151
4. Hutbay - 1581
5. Car Nicobar - 1275

Top Metro Cities
-------------
1. Mumbai Airport - 3112
2. Mumbai City – 2263
3. Kolkata - 1659
4. Ahmedabad – 953
5. Hyderabad - 881
6. Pune Airport - 950
7. Pune City – 849
8. Chennai City – 686
9. Delhi City – 640
10. Delhi Airport -598
11. Bengaluru City – 548
12. Bengaluru Airport - 537
13. Chennai Airport - 364

Driest places in entire SWM (All from Tamil Nadu)
---------------------
1. Rameshwaram, Ramanathapuram - 0

1. Thangachimadam, Ramanathapuram - 0

1. Madathukulam, Tiruppur - 0

1. Nallathangal Odai Reservoir, Tiruppur - 0

1. Keelarasadi, Thoothukudi - 0

1. Kulasekarapattinam, Thoothukudi - 0

1. Maniyachi, Thoothukudi - 0

1. Tiruchendur, Thoothukudi - 0

1. Vedanatham, Thoothukudi - 0

2. Pallamorkulam, Ramanathapuram - 1

3. Pamban IMD, Ramanathapuram – 1.3

3. Srivaikuntapuram, Thoothukudi - 1.3

4. Thoothukudi IMD - 1.8

5. Kakkor, Ramanthapuram - 2.4

6. Mandapam, Ramanathapuram - 3.2

7. Dharapuram, Tiruppur - 4

8. Kayalpattinam, Thoothukudi - 4

9. Vaippar, Thoothukudi - 5

10. Vallikonam, Ramanathapuram - 8.2

Thanks to Ranjith Gowda for the Karnataka Toppers and Ashwin from Coimbatore for Driest Places in India.

FINAL MONSOON REPORT 2025

The monsoon distribution from 1901 till date is given below;

This year's monsoon total rainfall (preliminary) matches the 2013 figure of 937.2 mm.

X-axis represents years with monsoon rainfall, highest of 1124.2mm in 1917 (extreme right) to the lowest of 697.4 mm in 1972 (extreme left).

   The following chart shows the monsoon rainfall from 2014 to 2025;

Key observations:

From 2014 to 2018, actual rainfall remained below baseline, reaching a –14% deviation in 2015.

In 2019–2020, actual rainfall exceeded baseline by 9–10%, peaking at +10% in 2019.

2021 saw a slight shortfall (–1%), followed by positive deviations in 2022 (+6%) and 2024 (+8%).

The 11-year span highlights variability, with clear swings between wetter and drier years relative to baseline.

       

 Finally the full report with all the details;

Mahabaleshwar Monsoon 2025

Mahabaleshwar got 6197.5mm rain this monsoon. 

No. of days with 100mm+ rain = 16 days

No. pf days with 200mm+ rain = 4 days

No. of days with 300mm+ rain = 1 day

The attached graph shows daily rain variation in Mahabaleshwar from 1 June-30 September. Data: IMD

Seasonal readings from Private Weather Stations of Vagarians

Badlapur: Abbhijit, Borivali: Nilay, Deonar, Ronnie, thane: Shriraj, Club: Willingdon