14th November:

NEM consistency as of now...and overall conditions..

Analysis from Vagarian Gokul

Daily values of Nino 3.4 index have been exhibiting an overall increasing trend since the beginning of November with high frequency sub-weekly fluctuations. Current value is close to -0.5 . 

The observed trend may be partially related to the MJO activity over the western hemisphere during the same time period. 

Extended range forecasts of MJO from various global models indicate an eastward propagating signal of the large scale tropical wave with large uncertainty in the intensity estimates though.

The north east monsoon rains of south east India remained subdued during the past 2 weeks with negative rainfall anomalies growing across the region. Forecasts for the immediate week to come do not indicate any large scale rainfall that could compensate for these negative anomalies. 

On monthly timescales, a large region of intense suppressed convective anomalies have been observed over the equatorial Indian Ocean.
Images sourced from @TropicalTidbits @ECMWF