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Monsoon Watch - 2...12th April 2022
*Forecast indicate a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—neither La Niña nor El Niño—during May/June.( Indicator:+ )
*The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been weak or indiscernible for the past fortnight. Climate models indicate the MJO is likely to remain weak, - (Indicator: Changing)
*The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The latest IOD index value for the week ending 10 April 2022 was −0.04 °C. Much of the tropical Indian Ocean near the equator has warmed over the past fortnight, with sea surface temperatures now 0.4 °C to 0.8 °C warmer than average across the region. _ (Indicator: changing)
*The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is NOAA's primary index for tracking the ocean part of ENSO, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The ONI is the rolling 3-month average temperature anomaly—difference from average—in the surface waters of the east-central tropical Pacific, near the International Dateline. ( Indicator: + )
The day and Night temperatures /Anomaly are shown here...indications of hot weather with temperatures having reached 46.5c (Jacobabad) in the Sub Continent...Favourable. ( + )
Also early LWD forming and precipitating Thundershowers in Central/Western Southern Peninsula Regions..May damage prospects of timely formation of LWD in Peninsula to Create and form a proper Seasonal Low in the Deserts. ( indicator: - )
Depending if the April Parameters change/Form or remain same...the arrival date of the Monsoon will be determined in late April.
Thanks for a nice follow up in series.
Had a query ..ENSO indicator following vagaries terminology over the years, it being a neutral neither la nina or wl nino- to be considered as positive or neutral indicator?
Nilay...Yes normally you are right. But this time possibilities of favourable indication is more possible
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