Post of Saturday 19th:

BB -3 , WML, mentioned now in Vagaries. 

Expect to move Northwards now

Vagarian Vineet Kumar ( Fellow Researcher, IITM) says

"Although imd expecting cyclone in bay of bengal in next few days

However ocean not very supportive for intensification of system

 TCHP less than 40kjcm2 over most of central, north bay where the system expected to track. In such low tchp system may not intensify

 SST in range 27-28c in central, north bay.

 I think system may intensify max to deep depression and imd-gfs is currently over estimating the forecasted intensity of the system

 It might be good that no strong cyclone will form as there r incidences when cyclone induced subsidence over india amplify the heatwave over the region.

Latest such example was during cyclone Fani"