Maharashtra temperatures on 16th March... Nights are still comfortable as in March
Data provided by Shri Hosalikar (RMC Mumbai)
15th Evening Post: BB-10 , Deep depression remained as D.D. for 12 hrs over G.West Bengal... Creating a strong gush of Westerlies (towards t...
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Pune recorded 87 mm ending 8.30am today. With this achieved 1000 mm mark! Seasonal Rainfall stands on 1018 mms now. Last night Widespread...
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Posted Tuesday 24th Morning: Pune region lashed by strong Thundershowers overnight: Rainfall: Talegaon 73 mms, Welu 60 mms, Pune City 56...
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CREDIT AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEREOLOGY
ssued 19 March 2019
The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.
El Niño ALERT; likelihood of El Niño in 2019 increases
ENSO Outlook
Our ENSO Outlook provides
up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.
ENSO Outlook dial showing El Niño ALERT status
Current status: El Niño ALERT
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook has moved from WATCH to El Niño ALERT. This means the chance of El Niño developing in 2019 has increased to approximately 70%, around triple the normal likelihood.
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have touched on El Niño thresholds for the past three weeks, while waters below the surface are also slightly warmer than average. Signs of El Niño in the atmosphere are less clear. While values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are currently within El Niño bounds, the index is likely to weaken in the coming days. Large swings in the SOI are not uncommon during the southern hemisphere monsoon season. Additionally, trade winds have been closer to normal over the past fortnight after a period of weakened trades in the western tropical Pacific.
Most international climate models suggest sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to remain at El Niño levels into winter. Sustained warmer than average ocean waters would increase the likelihood of coupling between the atmosphere and ocean, which would typically cause changes in Australian and global weather patterns. However, current outlooks have less skill for the period beyond May, and therefore predictions for the latter months should be viewed with some caution.
El Niño typically brings drier than average conditions for eastern Australia during winter–spring, and warmer days across southern Australia. During the autumn months, the influence of El Niño tends to be weaker, but can bring drier conditions to southern Australia.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has little influence on Australia from December to April. Current outlooks suggest the IOD is likely to remain neutral for the remainder of the austral autumn, but indicate a positive IOD may form later in winter. A positive IOD typically means drier than average conditions for southern and central Australia during winter-spring.
More information
Media enquiries: (03) 9669 4057 media@bom.gov.au
Next update expected on 2 April 2019
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