Sunday, September 22, 2013

Please note the underlined warning for Gujarat as per blog article below..see rain amounts in Flash Snippet >>>>>
 after SWM withdrawal from Rajasthan, they may be un monsoon...but Kutch we have kept SWM...if you remember, we said we will wait for this BB-13 to go and then withdraw from Kutch...

Surprise Surprise !!! Patgaon takes the Lead from Hulikal - All India SWM Toppers from 01.06.13 to 22.09.13..See Pradeep's Page

Posted Sunday Evening (22nd):

1. BB-13, persisting over MP, likely to weaken on Monday 23rd into an UAC and move West.

Please read below article slowly for day by day forecast and has been worked on extensively for a daily forecast;

Monday 23rd: 
Rains due to UAC over Eastern Gujarat and adjoining Saurashtra Peninsula. Rainfall expected in Ahmadabad also. Rainfall by evening extends to North Konkan.
Places to watch for Heavy rains: Surat Region. Surat region getting heavy overnight rains on Sunday night/Monday morning (35-40 mms). Adjoining coastal region of Gujarat also for heavy rains.

Mumbai: Cloudy, with thunder clouds developing by afternoon/evening. Heavy Showers in many parts of city. Rain amounts ranging from 15 - 25 mms in different areas.
Outer townships, specially the eastern towns, get heavy thunder showers. 
Pune: Getting cloudy and thundery by evening. Showers in parts of city.

Delhi NCR: Partly cloudy, and getting warmer.
Chennai: A shower can "pop up" in some areas by evening. Very regional and localised.

Tuesday 24th:
A trough extends from the UAC outhwards upto the Maharashtra coast. As the trough forms, a high pressure area tries to establish itself over NW India. This was dislodged by BB-13 earlier.
Hence, would expect rains in parts of Saurashtra and also along the East Gujarat coast and North Konkan.Very light showers (or cloudy conditions) on Tuesday evening or night in Delhi NCR, Ghaziabad and Meerut regions.
Places to watch for heavy rains: Southern Saurashtra Coast.

Mumbai: Partly cloudy and sunny intervals. Thundery developments drifting over city from east. Around 10 mms possible
Outer townships expected to receive showers by evening. 
Pune: Thunder shower likely in some parts by evening.

Delhi NCR: Cloudy and stuffy by night. Day time around 38c. Some light showers expected in the night.
Kolkata can expect a thunder shower on Monday and Tuesday.
Chennai: Partly cloudy and very warm day.

Wednesday 25th: 
The high pressure forms a ridge along Central India and adjoining NW India. The SWM can be said to withdraw from remaining North India upto Western MP on Wednesday. Appropriate announcement will be made on Vagaries on Wednesday.

Wednesday, rainfall persisting and decreasing in the Saurashtra Peninsula.
Probably Heavy rainfall in some parts of Rajkot, Gondal and Amreli regions.

Mumbai: Partly cloudy. Thunder clouds over eastern sky. Showers likely in some parts of city..Rains decreasing.
Outer townships will also get some showers in some towns. Sky clearing late night.
Chennai: cloudy day with showers increasing in frequency by afternoon/evening. Upto 10-12 mms in various parts of city. Rains also possible of same frequency on Thursday.

Thursday 26th: 
With no major reason to precipitate, the sub-continent will have some light scattered showers in the Southern Peninsula.Rainfall increasing slightly in Odisha after Thursday for next 2 days.

Mumbai: Partly cloudy morning and warm. Misty and foggy in the morning. 
Outer townships can experience morning fog. 

Nepal: Kathmandu had a and good spell of rains on Sunday. With 46 mms today, the September total pushes to 113 mms, still lagging behind the normal. But, even after the Monsoon retreats, i would expect the localised thunder showers to continue in Kathmandu for the next 3.4 days. With a daily average of about 10 mms, an boost the monthly total by another 50 mms to near the average normal for this month could expect the nights to drop below 19c next few nights, after refreshing rain spells.

Pakistan: Dry. Getting very hot by Wednesday in Sindh/Balochistan region. Temperatures may rise to 43c in some places.

As I will be away on a trip to Goa, there will be no major article for the next 3 days. My trip will keep me busy, hence only small snippets will be posted, as i will not be able to track the weather. A small write up on Monday before leaving will be published.

Rohit' Page Updated with  Maharashtra and Thane District Rainfall till 22nd September

Pradeep's Page will be updated by Monday 9 am with ALL India Monsoon Toppers


emkay said...

Enjoy goa sir

Unknown said...

Go Goa rajesh sir have a grt time

Rajesh said...

on Friday and Saturday. In Fb and on blog several vagarians were asking me for revising the Sunday forecast for Mumbai. as almost all models were showing over 60 mms, for Sunday, i was asked several times for my views . I replied, in blog comments, i am not swayed by any model forecast, and would stick to my working assumption, and would change only if necessary.
No changes changes were required...

Abhijit Modak said...

Enjoy holidays in Goa Sir. How will be Goa Weather during your visit ? I think westerly winds with few passing showers and temp around 30c/25c !!

Anonymous said...

Becoming very hot and humid in rains in the evening..high level cirrus clouds have started to move from east to west..the usual intense September storms are missing this time..End of SWM is near!!!

Abhijit Modak said...

Report from IMD's RMC Ahmedabad : Monsoon was vigorous over Gujarat state and in Diu, Daman, Dadra Nagar Haveli.


For GUJARAT REGION minimum 3cm in below list :

Sagbara (dist Narmada) 36, Umerpada (dist Surat) 35, Bharuch (dist Broach) 30, Jhagadia (dist Broach) 20, Quant (dist Baroda) 20, Jetpur Pavi (dist Baroda) 19, Sankheda_arg (dist Baroda) 18, Sankheda (dist Baroda) 18, Tilakwada_arg (dist Narmada) 18, Waghai_arg (dist Dangs) 15, Naswadi (dist Baroda) 15, Tilakwada (dist Narmada) 14, Nanipalson (dist Valsad) 13, Rajpipala (dist Narmada) 13, Sinor_arg (dist Baroda) 13, Ankleshwer (dist Broach) 13, Nandod (dist Narmada) 13, Ukai (dist Surat) 12, Madhbun (dist Dadara & Nagar Haveli) 12, Jambughoda (dist Panchmahal) 11, Silvassa (dist Dadara & Nagar Haveli) 11, Nizer (dist Tapi) 11, Dediapada (dist Narmada) 11, Valsad (dist Valsad) 11, Hansot_arg (dist Broach) 11, Dabhoi_arg (dist Baroda) 11, Dangs (ahwa) (dist Dangs) 11, Songadh (dist Tapi) 10, Wanakbori (dist Kheda) 10, Bodeli (dist Baroda) 9, Dabhoi (dist Baroda) 9, Ghoghamba (dist Panchmahal) 9, Vagra (dist Broach) 9, Mandvi (dist Surat) 9, Dharampur (dist Valsad) 8, Balasinor (dist Kheda) 8, Sinor (dist Baroda) 8, Hansot (dist Broach) 8, Chhota Udepur (dist Baroda) 8, Mahuva (dist Surat) 7, Vyara (dist Tapi) 7, Tarapur (dist Anand) 7, Uchchhal (dist Tapi) 7, Viramgam_arg (dist Ahmedabad) 7, Bardoli_arg (dist Surat) 7, Vansda (dist Navsari) 7, Jalalpor (dist Navsari) 7, Kaprada (dist Valsad) 7, Saputara_arg (dist Dangs) 6, Navsari (dist Navsari) 6, Valia (dist Broach) 6, Modasa (dist Sabarkantha) 6, Kadana (dist Panchmahal) 6, Godhra (dist Panchmahal) 5, Sojitra (dist Anand) 5, Dholka (dist Ahmedabad) 5, Valod (dist Tapi) 5, Halol (dist Panchmahal) 5, Gandevi_arg (dist Navsari) 5, Mahemdavad (dist Kheda) 5, Kapadvanj (dist Kheda) 5, Gandevi (dist Navsari) 5, Kamrej (dist Surat) 5, Vapi (dist Valsad) 5, Karjan (dist Baroda) 5, Choryasi (dist Surat) 5, Vadodara (dist Baroda) 5, Khambhat (dist Anand) 4, Kheda (dist Kheda) 4, Dascroi (dist Ahmedabad) 4, Dahegam (dist Gandhinagar) 4, Olpad (dist Surat) 4, Garbada (dist Dahod) 4, Chikhli (dist Navsari) 4, Khambhat_arg (dist Anand) 4, Meghraj (dist Sabarkantha) 4, Surat_aws (dist Surat) 4, Daman (dist Daman) 4, Kadi (dist Mehsana) 3, Bardoli (dist Surat) 3, Petlad (dist Anand) 3, Sanand (dist Ahmedabad) 3, Shahera (dist Panchmahal) 3, Jambuser (dist Broach) 3, Kalol_arg (dist Gandhinagar) 3, Waghodia (dist Baroda) 3, Anklav (dist Anand) 3, Limkheda (dist Dahod) 3, Surat City (dist Surat) 3, Amod (dist Broach) 3, Palsana (dist Surat) 3, Ranpur (dist Ahmedabad) 3, Kalol(g) (dist Gandhinagar) 3, Khedbrahma (dist Sabarkantha) 3, Virpur (dist Kheda) 3, Barvala (dist Ahmedabad) 3, Fatepura (dist Dahod) 3, Detroj (dist Ahmedabad) 3, Himatanagar (dist Sabarkantha) 3, Devgadh Baria (dist Dahod) 3, Mahudha (dist Kheda) 3, Jhalod (dist Dahod) 3

Abhijit Modak said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Abhijit Modak said...



Bhavnagar (dist Bhavnagar) 8, Muli (dist Surendranagar) 6, Dhrangadhra (dist Surendranagar) 5, Ghogha (dist Bhavnagar) 5, Rajkot (dist Rajkot) 5, Surendranagar (dist Surendranagar) 5, Gadhda (dist Bhavnagar) 5, Umrala (dist Bhavnagar) 4, Jasdan (dist Rajkot) 4, Bhachau (dist Kutch) 4, Botad_arg (dist Bhavnagar) 4, Shihor (dist Bhavnagar) 4, Chotila (dist Surendranagar) 3, Wankaner (dist Rajkot) 3, Tankara (dist Rajkot) 3, Chuda (dist Surendranagar) 3, Dhari_arg (dist Amreli) 3, Sayla (dist Surendranagar) 3, Halvad (dist Surendranagar) 3, Kharaghoda (dist Surendranagar) 3, Botad (dist Bhavnagar) 3, Babra (dist Amreli) 3, Lodhika_arg (dist Rajkot) 3, Wadhvan (dist Surendranagar) 3, Lilia (dist Amreli) 3, Liliya_arg (dist Bhavnagar) 3, Morbi (dist Rajkot) 3, Lakhtar (dist Surendranagar) 3, Paddhari (dist Rajkot) 3, Kotdasangani (dist Rajkot) 3, Mahuva(b) (dist Bhavnagar) 3, Bachau_aws (dist Kutch) 2, Lodhika (dist Rajkot) 2, Valbhipur_arg (dist Bhavnagar) 2, Vallabhipur (dist Bhavnagar) 2, Mendarda (dist Junagarh) 2, Gariadhar (dist Bhavnagar) 2, Kalavad (dist Jamnagar) 2, Lathi (dist Amreli) 2, Talaja (dist Bhavnagar) 2, Dhoraji (dist Rajkot) 2, Limbdi (dist Surendranagar) 2, Jetpur (dist Rajkot) 2, Rajula_arg (dist Amreli) 2, Veraval (dist Junagarh) 2, Amreli (dist Amreli) 2, Junagadh (dist Junagarh) 2, Dhoraji_arg (dist Rajkot) 2, Dhari (dist Amreli) 2, Gondal (dist Rajkot) 2, Dhrol_arg (dist Jamnagar) 2, Malia_miana (dist Rajkot) 2, Savarkundala_arg (dist Amreli) 1, Palitana (dist Bhavnagar) 1, Upleta (dist Rajkot) 1, Visavadar (dist Junagarh) 1, Savarkundla (dist Amreli) 1, Bagasra (dist Amreli) 1, Jamkandorna (dist Rajkot) 1, Visavdhar_arg (dist Junagarh) 1, Kodinar (dist Junagarh) 1

Unknown said...

Looks like another low is likely to form in the bay by next week

Abhijit Modak said...

As expected,typical monsoonish medium to heavy shower in Badlapur from west with gusty winds..

So west rain seen here after 22 days !!

Vinod Desai said...

Wow so monsoon came back..

Abhijit Modak said...

Nashik coolest in Maharashtra today.. Nashik max temp 22.7c with 11mm rain recorded till 5.30pm today.

Mohsin mulla said...

rajesh sir,
mumbai may be just miss by low pressure it will be hit and miss scenario for mumbai..some scattred shower trouhout the day but not heavy..any chance of low hit in mumbai in coming days.

Abhijit Modak said...

Maharashtra region heavy rainfall today ending 8.30am today in mms :

Nandurbar Dist bordering Gujarat & MP

Nandurbar 90
Navapur 101
Shahada 118
Taloda 267
Akrani 96
Akkalkua 227

Ukai dam is located at bordering to Nandurbar dist only ! So water was released from Ukai Dam & Surat was flooded even after receiving just 33mms rain ending 8.30am today !!

sset said...

Again it proves central India (MAHA,GUJ,MP,ORISSA,RAJ) is most vigorous and volatile region. Monsoon axis stays maximum number of days in central regions and least number of days in southern region. Some of the turn arounds (a)2013 monsoon GUJRAT receives maximum extremes Valsad 400mm in 24 hrs JUL 2013 and many other nearby places, again today as per RAJESH/ABHI figures many places in range 300mm - 400mm (b)Last 5 years Orissa continues to be sweet spot for BB low formation 2013 - 13 lows till now. (c)MAHA vidarbha continues to be target for BB landfalls - rains in range 300mm-200mm almost every low. (d) MP constituently receiving excess rains (e)GUJ breaking extreme rains records (f) Biggest winner MAHARASHTRA overtakes KAR in most wettest spot for 4th time!!!!(as per pradeep blog)

Biggest concern is aridity(near desertification of SE interior KAR,Rayalseema,many parts of TN). September supposed to rainest season for SE interior KAR, has almost received no rains for last 20 days. Infact few days of rain was due to weak UAC over TN - which in way can match todays GUJ rain or Vidarbha rains. If UAC would not have been formed TN then rains over interiors of south would almost nil (half of sept entire south is almost dry)- but raining more in GUJ, MAHA, RAJ. If see last 3 years - withdrawl time (september/early october) uac forms over GUJ/RAJ bringing massive rains. 2012 RAJ - jaisalmar received 800mm of rain in 2 days and today/tommorow 2013 GUJ rain!!. More axis stays in central India, will make southern states hotter and dry with no rain. This pattern was not seen 10years back - when I remember September BANG/MYS used to receive heavy rains every day- now no longer the case. Huge change in climate pattern.

sset said...

IMD puts red alert over GUJARAT for next 3 days (rains > 25cm)

sset said...

IMD puts red alert over GUJARAT for next 3 days (rains > 25cm)

Mohsin mulla said...

rajesh sir,
heavy rain with gusty winds are started in mumbai subrub.. Its effect of low pressure.what abt low direction in coming days some module are suggest low not weaken in coming two days it will be persist along gujrat and norh maharashtra coast..what abt ur pridiction..

Prasad said...

This season low direction can't be predicted accuratly, even by best weather models so at this stage difficult to predict the direction of low cant be predicted but it seems it will move towords pak cost and get vanished by 26 sep.

Prasad said...

Rajesh sir what is your prediction about withdrawl of monsoon from Mumbai and pune ????? I thinks after 5 oct.

Unknown said...

Very heavy rains going on in vasai for past 15 mins

Unknown said...

Raining heavily in SW monsoon style completely July monsoon weather.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Sam. Same in Badlapur also. Heavy raining in SWM style.

Unknown said...

@ Abhijit, after 2 hrs of heavy rains , it has stopped raining at the moment but very dark and gloomy currently.

Unknown said...

Moderate rains have re started in Vasai once again.

Abhijit Modak said...

Heavy Rain lashes North Thane District..

Some Rainfall figures ending 8.30am today(24-09-2013)

Malyan( Dahanu taluka) 274.0mm
Dahanu 267.2mm
Talasari 210.0mm
Chinchani(Dahanu taluka) 179.4mm
Talwada(Vikramgadh taluka) 162.2mm
Kasa(Dahanu taluka) 156.3mm
Javhar 138.0mm
Boisar(Palghar taluka) 131.6mm
Vikramgadh 127.0mm
Safala(Palghar taluka) 125.2mm
Tarapur(Palghar taluka) 122.4mm
Kanchad(Wada) 118.0mm
Mokhada 116.4mm
Wada 95.0mm
Palghar 89.1mm

Unknown said...

sir you new predictions

Abhijit Modak said...

Nashik disrtict Heavy Rain :

Some rainfall ending 8.30am today :

Surgana 115.4mm
Igatpuri 77.0mm
Trimbakashwar 75.0mm
Peth 70.0mm
Nashik 40mm

emkay said...

Navasari is flooded and Collector has appealed for calm

Neeraj said...

46 mm of rain you mentioned in Kathmandu fell in about an hour - it was a heavy downpour. But it was confined to some areas only, other areas were completely dry during that time. and dry and wet areas were separated by 1 or 2 Kilometers only.

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