Thursday, March 14, 2013

Posted on Saturday @ 11 pm IST:  
We see heavier rain concentration around Bhopal and to the NE..with 25 mms in Damoh, 13 mms in Umeria and 7 mms in Katni.vagaries had forecast this heavy patch around the Bhopal region, ...where the UAC (see yesterday's map) is situated......BUT latest bulletin from IMD -"The cyclonic circulation over east Madhya Pradesh and neighborhood has become less marked."
Madhya Mah and Vidharbha also reported thundershowers on Saturday evening..

Pune ,Mahableshwar and surroundings report light rains early morning..Pune station reportd 0.2 mms, Mahableshwar 1.6 mms...and vicinity in between Pune Kolhapur gets some medium showers with thunder..Shiraz reported thunder from Mahableshwar during last night..Rains reported from Vidarbha also...see rain areas in map of 16th Saturday below..

The Actual Situation on Friday ( Map below overdrawn on the original map of show Actual v/s Forecast)  is that the trough has tilted more towards the North than the forecast, with an UAC and a low on either side.
The Low is the projected low as shown in Saturday's forecast map..having formed in the South of the projected region...

Vagaries' Forecast for 15th, 16th and 17th. Forecast for the Day and Night of the Date Mentioned.

Weekend City Forecast Friday 15th, Saturday 16th, Sunday 17th: Minimum Temperature will be the recording of the Next Morning.

Mumbai Scruz:
Friday: Clear 32c- 19c
Saturday: Clear 32c-20c.
Sunday: Humidity increasing, creating sweaty conditions in the afternoon/evening hours. Partly Cloudy at night (Sunday Night):34c-20c

Friday: partly cloudy 37c-18c
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Light drizzle in vicinity. 38c- 19c 
Sunday: Partly cloudy 37c- 17c

Friday: Clear 37c-22c
Saturday:  Partly Cloudy 36c-23c .
Sunday: 38c-23c Temperatures rising.

Kolkata can expect cloudy weather with some light rains in some parts on Sunday.

Delhi NCR: Partly cloudy weather till Saturday and clear from Sunday. Temperature around the 31c mark, with slight drop on Sunday morning.

Chennai remains sunny and in the 34c-23c range.


Unknown said...

Rajeshbhai, chana crop is ready for harvesting in vidarbha. The rain can spoil the crop lying in open. Good alert for farmers which has been duly communicated...Potey

Anonymous said...

SOI values are on upswing currently thn feb (-5.6) ..hav reached 10.9(for past 30 days) ..

Bcuz of higher pressure over the pacific tropical..

Unknown said...

Rajeshbhai, report of raining (just started) coming in from Akola district...exactly as shown in the area on the map....Potey

sset said...

Seems definite climate change. WD are becoming stronger/longer bringing rains not only for North India but also MAHA. But interior of south exactly opposite - pre - monsoon showers have failed for 2 years, consequtive failures of SWM and almost very weak NEM. This makes interiors of south driest places of India.

Bangalore worst drought for 3 years - now all parks drying up.

Rajesh - any hope this year - or it meets same fate as 2012?????

Rajesh said...

sset: I dont want to fake expertise, but its impossible at this stage to forecast the quantum and regional distribution of the the cost of my knowledge, i can say that these cooling March showers may portend well for the timely arrival of the SWM..but not commiting as yet..we still have half of March left..

Cmdr Potey: Thanks for the tmely feedback from Akola...more rains today it seems..a darker region shown in my map for today. Lets see...i know it may be harmfull to standing Chana crops....

Unknown said...

Rajesh sir ,On Saturday evening thunderclouds were clearly visible here in Vasai on the eastern sky. this thing mostly happens during early May . i feel these showers will die down by today evening thus allowing the heat to build up again in Nagpur and surrounding MP. temperature reaching in early 40's Gradually building the you said we have half of march still with us so things can turn positive to build up the heat.

Rajesh said...

sam: Yes, thunder clouds were observed from here as well, justifying the rains west east of Mumbai on mainland, as shown in saturday forecast map of vagaries. Now rain area moving east as shown..with chances of showers in parts of Kolkata..

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