Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Another West Coast Low to emerge ?

The low mentioned in my previous blog,created by the easterly wave, persisted as an circulation over the Lakshadweep Islands on Monday. Seems it is "kept afloat" by the warm 28 to 30c waters of the Arabian Sea.

The estimated "off shoot " from the low moved towards Goa on Monday IMD map), and, as per our discussion in my blog, precipitated rains over Goa and coastal Karnataka on Monday and Tuesday.
Mahableshwar is experaincing on going light rain at the time of writing this blog ( Tuesday 10 p.m.). Pune and Mumbai too had light rain/drizzle on Tuesday.
This unexpected light rains in Goa and South Maharashtra is short lived and could vanish by Wednessday.

International models, however, continue to forecast the ongoing rains over the Karnataka and Kerala west coast. But, in a repeat performance, rainfall could gradually again creep over to parts of central India and along the Maharashtra coast, and again into South interior Maharashtra.

Coastal Karnataka and Kerala will continue with its current wet spell till the 3rd. Of Jan. But the Konkan and Goa repeat rains will be from Saturday, 2nd Jan, and may last till Sunday. But for Maharashtra, this second spell may not go far inland into the inner regions of the state, but restriced to the Konkan belt. Maybe nudge a little into South coastal Gujarat and parts of southern Saurashtra.

For Mumbai, expect a clear cold New Year's eve. Again, some light rain on the weekend, Saturday/Sunday.

Meanwhile, cold and dry northwesterlies kept the chill over plains of north and northwest India during the last 4 days. In the last few nights, Adampur (Punjab) with -1c and Amrisar/Rohtak at 0c were the cold spots in the plains. But, the cold wave has not moved southwards into Rajasthan and Gujarat, where stations still record normal to above normal temperatures.

Rain for U.A.E.
A Eastward moving W.D. is expected to bring rains to the U.A.E. and coastal regions of Oman on the 2nd/3rd of January. On the 3rd/4th. it can move east and precipitate rain in the southern/coastal Sindh regions.

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