Sunday, June 14, 2009

We might just retain he first para. of my last blog, and reproduce it with the dates changed. The dates menioned, could just be pushed another 3 days ahead to 18th./19th ( for Mumbai included).

Can't help it !The conditions, or lack of it, are just the same.

The weak off shore trough off the Karnataka/Kerala coast will coninue to precipitate rains along that coast line. Sporadic local thundershowers will bring heavy downpours in the interior Karnataka/A.P./Orissa regions.(Due to the increasing heat).

But for the rest of the country, north of the current monsoon line, the wait continues.

No international weather forecasting model shows the rains, or monsoon, progressing northwards before the 19th. IMD announced the monsoon to be subdued till the 18th. And NCMRWF, Noida, shows the rains creeping into north Konkan (including Mumbai) on the 19th.
Interiors of Maharashtra and Gujarat can expect the monsoon to progress not before 21st., at least.

The main factor for the further delay is the fall in the pressure gradiant. The core pressure seen in the map is now at 1002 mb. Definitely it will be at least 3/4 days, if the reverse process starts now, before it recovers back to the 994mb level.

A heat wave in northern India only can "hasten " this in todays scenario.

As, the situation requires minute observation, we shall have another review in a couple of days.

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