Saturday, May 09, 2009

Monsoon Watch-8
Things have ''sobered" down to some extent after he movement of two consecutive W.D.s in the north. The systtems have brought relief rains in most of the northern states. Another W.D. is approaching

Even todays day's highs as seen in the map are almost on the normal levels. A 45c high at Nagpur, and a 47c in Sindh. Yes thats high, but near normal levels.

As a result, the seasonal low over the central regions of the sub-continent, which should be forming by now, is a bit tardy in its formation, and the MSLP map from IMD does not show much progress in the formation.

But, a line of discontiunity along the south Maharshtra, Karnatak an Kerala line, has resulted in the convection development of thundershowers along the axis of this line. Thundershowers, with hail, was recorded in Mahableshwar on Thursday and Friday. Pune too, got some rain on Friday. These "pre-Monsoon" showers mean well, as some moisture has started accumalating in the peninsula. ( This is the result of the 2 air streams from the west and east meeting along the lone of wind discontiunity).

Below the equator, the winds are all "geared up", and are already south-westerly in the bay segment. And picking up speed ! The picking up of speed indicates gathering more moisture, and forming rain bearing clouds. Also, the ICTZ, as seen in the streamline map, is now exactly over the equator, and is poised to cross the imaginary line on its due date, 10th. May. SST is around 31c/32c in the bay now, ideal for the cumulus cloud formation.

Thus, with the above two indications, the monsoon is all poised to enter the south Andaman Sea, around the 13th./14th. Thus, for the bay segment, the monsoon seems to be on schedule.

1 comment:

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