The current week witnessed heavy rain along the northern peninsula belt and Gujarat. Alibag topped the list with an unusual 330 mms in a day, and many stations in Gujarat and northern Maharashtra with rainfall from 3- 10 cms.

The new low now off the east coast of India, is poised to become well marked into a depression by Saturday.
The depression is slated to travel inland across the Northern peninsula areas of A.P.,Maharashtra, M.P and towards Gujarat.

It is likely to merge with a low over North Konkan formed by the trough,seen well in the ECMRWF chart, by around Sunday/Monday, and the merged entity may move northwards towards Saurashtra.The system, if going by the estimate, may again interact with the "dipping" W.D. over northwest India and bordering Pakistan.
In effect, the monsoon trough will run along from Thar desert to the anticipated depression through central India.(current trough position,IMD)

In short, the effective result of this complicated meteorogical sytems interaction will be:

Heavy rains along the east coast of India from Friday, moving inland and good rains spreading through A.P. interior Mahrashtra and M.P. on Saturday(3-8 cms), with heavy rain in Mumbai and Konkan and the ghats on Sunday/Monday(4-9 cms). Rains will move towards Gujarat by Monday and will be fairly heavy in Saurashtra coast and inland(3-8 cms). By Tuesday/Wednessday(25th../26th.), rains will cover a corridor from Gujarat and South Sindh coast(pakistan), along Rajasthan/Pakistan border upto northern states of India, due to the interaction with the W.D.

This sequence of activity can be proved wrong, if the monsoon system, as unpredictable as ever, this year, decides to rearrange the jigsaw puzzle in some different pattern !It can happen, specially in the north, as the monsoon has "overstayed" its "booking dates there".

kapadias@gmail.com