Monday, April 19, 2010

Nights in the Indian region now baking in Heat Wave:
As the Heat Wave continues in the Sub-Continent, I see  new "highs" in the minimum temperatures.In the chart from IMD for 18th.April, if we observe the lows, they were as much as +12c above the normal in Jammu, and +11c above normal in Hissar.Many other places report minimums at +4 to +8c above normal.
Jammu  Max:38.7 (+06)    Min: 30.6 (+12)
Hissar   Max:44.1 (+07)    Min:30.8 (+11).    
Yesterday, on 18th, the highest day temperature of 46.5c was recorded at Daltongunj. And several places were at 45c.

My forecast for Monday thru Wednessday would be: North would see some rain in the most Northern hilly states, due to a weak upper level W.D. For the South, rain/thundershowers in southern Karnataka coast, not much rain inland for Karnataka next 3 days.Bangalore may not recieve rain thru this period. Rain in Kerala will be fairly good, but diminishing on Wednessday.I estimate the rain to lessen as I see winds along the South-West coast turning North, indicating a high forming in the Arabian Sea.
The North-East rains should continue thru this period (Monday thru Wed.). West and Central regions will be dry and hot. Maximums of 45/46c could be recorded in Rajasthan and Vidharbh.


anant said...

I am reading quite a few speculated impact of current Volcanic activity on Asian monsoon, Do you have any thoughts on this. Could the ash prevent the pre-monsoon heat low forming ? Any historical data on this ?

Rajesh said...

Not aware of any data as such. Shuld not have any impact on our monsoons.My views are that our monsoon winds recurve from the S.Hemisphere. And,as said in my MW blog,the seasonal low has started forming.

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