Friday, January 30, 2015

F-1 Forecast on Schedule ....Brings Season's first snowfall in Srinagar.

Sunday 1st February:

Srinagar and most other parts of Kashmir plains received the season's first snowfall on Sunday 1st February. Snowfall began throughout the valley, including Srinagar, in the wee hours of the day. However, rains overshadowed the brief spell of snow and later it was a mixture of the two lashing the city as the day progressed.
It started snowing in the city at around 2.45 pm after intermittent spell of sleet since this morning and heavy cloud cover throughout the day on Saturday.

Pictures of Srinagar from Press...and Banihal Railway

 Kokernag hill resort in south Kashmir recorded a minimum of minus 0.5c.

The Kashmir region received snow and rain on Sunday 1st February. The snowfall across the Valley, including in Srinagar, began early morning and continued intermittently throughout the day.

The  snow was received at all stations, including in north Kashmir’s Gulmarg skiing resort and south Kashmir’s Pahalgam resort. Kupwara district and south Kashmir’s gateway Qazigund town also received snow during the day.

Monday 2nd :
Intermittent snowfall continued for second day on Monday in Kashmir, with ski-resort of Gulmarg recording about 45.7 cm of snow till 8:30 am this morning.

The minimum temperature in the resort, registered an increase of about two degrees from minus 6.0c to settle at minus 4.2c.

Pahalgam hill resort in south Kashmir, which serves as the base camp during the annual Amarnath yatra, recorded a jump of nearly 3c in the mercury from the previous night’s low of minus 3.4c  to settle at minus 0.6c. Pahalgam received 8.6 cms of snowfall during the night.

Srinagar, recorded 2.5 cm of snow and the minimum temperature in the city settled at a low of minus 1.0c, about a notch below yesterday’s minus 0.2c.

Kupwara received 5.2 cm of snowfall

"Vagaries' Maximum Temperature/Rainfall Contest - Part 1- Feb/ Part 2- Mar/ Part 3- Apr 2015"
The First Part ( Part -1-February) is up on the "Vagaries' Max Temperature/Rainfall Contest Page"...Please submit your Entries Before 8th February..

Mumbai Weather Forecast for 2nd Feb on Mumbai Page ..and Mumbai averages

As Forecasted , F-1 coming...See Vagaries Pakistan Updated with the WD Report

From Rohit...See More on Rohit's Page
Posted Thursday 29th Night:

Friday 30th/Saturday 31st/Sunday 1st:
Weather expected for Indian Sub Continent:
-Most of the precipitation from F-1 from Monday 2nd into Tuesday 3rd.
-Precipiataion in UP and Eastern MP on 3rd.

Mainly dry on Friday with weather getting cloudy in Northern Pakistan and Upper Sindh on Saturday. As F-1 advances, precipitation commences in Northern Pakistan on Sunday 1st February and light drizzles from overcast skies in Upper Sindh and Pak Punjab.

Rains increase on Monday 2nd thru Tuesday 3rd in North Pakistan and Northern Indian States of Kashmir, HP, Punjab.

Islamabad gets light rains on Monday 2nd, with maximum temperatures dropping to 15/16c.

Lahore can get more rains , upto 5-7 mms on Monday 1st and 2nd.

Gujrat (Pakistan) can expect good rains from Monday night into Tuesday, upto 15-17 mms. Day cools down on Tuesday to around 14c from 20c during the weekend.

Sunday 1st evening and Monday 2nd, F-1 moves into North Indian Hill States of Kashmir, HP with precipitation. Cloudy and light showers in parts of Punjab on 2nd.

On Sunday 1st February, Strong SE winds in Delhi NCR, with gusts. Very windy in NCR on Monday 2nd, the odd chance to expect light showers.

Light rains in Chandigarh from Monday Night into Tuesday.

Gusty S winds expected in Nagpur on 2nd.

Rains appear in Eastern MP and region around on 3rd February. The Winds turn South in East UP, thus creating a LWD in the Chattisgarh region.

Mumbai: Clear skies, with low at Santacruz about 16c on Saturday and 18c on Saturday and Sunday. Days getting to 31c by Saturday. NW winds upto 20 kmph on Friday and Saturday evenings.


Rajesh said...

Arpit gives theses details of Delhi:
Data for Vagaries...
Palam & other stations are much colder than Safdarjung...
Safdarjung Jan avg max...
1901- 17.4c
1905- 17.8c
1924- 18.3c
1999- 18.5c
2003- 17.85c (From TOI article published last year)
2015- 17.83c (Till 28 January)
So we can say that it is the second coldest year in 110 years after 2003...1924 is having avg of 18.3c and there are almost no chances of reaching 18.3c this year now...for 18.3c, the next 3 days max should reach at least 22.7c which looks very difficult as of now...

ameya said...

Sir is winter on its way back for mumbai Max expected to climb early next week ?; Are any WDs in north expected to bring down temperatures for mumbai belt in early feb; is any strong WD expected late in the winter season.

Seems we are not going to see anything below 13deg min for mumbai now ?

Abhijit Modak said...

West coast heats up !! Some max temp for today(30-01-2015):

Honavar 35.5 °C
Ratnagiri 35.2 °C
Kozhikode 35.1 °C
Panjim 34.0 °C
Mumbai Scruz 33.9 °C
Mangalore AP 33.8 °C
Amini Divi 33.7 °C
Thiruvananthapuram 33.6 °C
Alapuzha 33.2 °C

Abhijit Modak said...

West coast sizzles for second day. Some max temp below for today(31-01-2015):

Honavar 36.3 °C
Ratnagiri 35.5 °C
Kozhikode 35.1 °C
Panjim 34.9 °C
Mangalore AP 34.8 °C
Mumbai Scruz 34.3 °C
Thiruvananthapuram 33.8 °C
Amini Divi 33.4 °C
Alapuzha 33.2 °C

Arpit Sharma said...

Delhi finally sets up a record of second coldest year in 110 years with January average maximum temperature of just 18c. Only 2003 was slightly colder with Jan avg at 17.85c.

Unknown said...

rajesh sir,what is your long term forecast for monsoon 2015 in india.will it be a la nina year .please tell.

Rajesh said...

abizer: Very difficult for me to give Monsoon estimate in Early Feb. About El -Nino, it seems that now there are no chances of the event. Conditions will be neutral till June.

Monsoon initial estimate i shall put up maybe in March, as an early indicator. When the cyclones cease in Southern Hemisphere, we get a better picture.

Forecast for Mumbai/Pune: Similar weather expected for Mumbai and Pune for Wednesday 17th April.  Mumbai: Hot daytime weather in Mumbai cit...