RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD 1-3-2025 to 31-5-2025

 

31st May:

Weather wise, an event full May for Maharashtra...specially for Mumbai and Pune.

1. 26th May, An earliest ever Monsoon setting date for Mumbai. The previous earliest was May to 29th in 1956, , . 

However, this year, we announced a " temporary advance". Now, this has never been termed before anytime. Looking at the initial surge , due to the meandering Low pressure system ( AS 1) over Maharashtra, we coined this term " temporary " as we saw very heavy rainfalls in Mumbai and Interior Maharashtra (Pune Region). 

(all records and figures in previous posts).

Showing a image of our 26th blog post :👇

Rainfall Total of May 2025 (with normal in Brackets)👇

Mumbai:

Mumbai Colaba: 503 mms ( 16mms). ...Record for May beating 218 mms in 1918.

Heaviest 27th 24 hrs fall of 162 mms on 27th May broke the previous May Record of 128 mms in 2000.

Mumbai Scruz: 378 mms ( 18 mms)....Scruz record of 388 mms in 2000 hold good ! 

Mumbai Avg. May month Average Max in 2025 is 33.5c...Day/Night Average 30.0c...Normal Average is 30.5c

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2. Pune:

One of the coolest May on record for Mumbai & Pune....With coldest May Day ever for Pune at 24.8c on 27th...

2025 May Month Max Avg  is 33.2c Normal is 37.3c

Overall day/Night Avg: 25.9c...

May Rains Total:👇

Pune: 240.2 mms ( 30 mms) Record for May beating 182 mm in 1933

Mahabaleshwar: 445 mms ( 67 mms)

Matheran : 551 mms

Guhagarh: 707 mms

Mormugao : 700 mms

Panjim: 637 mms ( 65 mms)

Dabolim : 680 mms

Mapusa: 693 mms

----Cherrapunji : 1437 mms---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And sure enough, the rains have drastically reduced after 29th.

The days got warmer..as the Monsoon current weakened..

 30th May

Depression BB 2 Location

Well Done IITM..and Prof Mukhopadhyay and his team !

How India’s cutting-edge weather forecast system was built from a lab in Pune

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29th May:

The Depression, BB-2, has crossed into the West Bengal Coast. Will track N/NE.

 

Very heavy rains now will occur in Bangladesh and NE States.

The Axis will move Northwards, As a result>

 30th May - 4th June: 

Mumbai, Pune , Marathwada and Gujarat will see little rainfall. Few Passing showers for Mumbai. 

Hotter days and nights.

Opportunity for completing any pending civil work and water proofing👇

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Current Winds as on 27th with Monsoon Axis:

..From 29th to 7th June.Rains almost to negligible in Mumbai, Pune, Interior Maharashtra, Sambhajinagar and Bharuch.

Axis and winds expected to shift Northwards ..creating a somewhat hiatus in rains 

 The southwest monsoon made its earliest entry into India this year, hitting Kerala on 24th May and rapidly advancing (temporarily) to Mumbai by 26th May, its earliest arrival.

Fueled by a depression over the Arabian Sea, the monsoon brought record-breaking rainfall to Mumbai.

Colaba recorded 472 mm, surpassing the previous May record from 1918 (280 mms), while Santacruz reported 347 mm.

While rainfall will now reduce, intermittent showers and overcast skies are expected.

A trough off the Konkan coast may keep rains active, but the worst seems to be over for now.

Cool Summer Days in Maharashtra ...27th May..Coldest May Day ever in Pune at 24.8°c 

**Mumbai (CLB) 27th Morning 24 hrs rain: 161.9 mms

May total: 456.5 mms. (Departure from Normal: +446.7 mms)...Previous May Month record 280 mms in 1918.

**Mumbai (SCZ) 27th Morning 24 hrs Rain:  144.2 mms

May Total: 342.0 mms (Departure from Normal +329.6 mms)... Previous May Month record 388 mms in 2000.

**Pune may total as yet on 27th:218 mms... Previous  may record 182 mms in 1933

26TH MAY

MONSOON ENTERS INTO MUMBAI AND PUNE AS A "TEMPORARY" CURRENT.

WE TERM "TEMPORARY" AS EVEN AS RAINFALL IS HEAVY, IT IS NOT STABILISED AS PER CRITERIAS. HENCE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF SCALING DOWN IN RAIN INTENESITY FROM 29TH MAY, FOR A WEEK/10 DAYS.

This could well be the earliest Monsoon Date arrival In Mumbai and Pune. 

Previous dearly dates , as per Vagaries' extreme Blog

May 2025 total till date 5.30 pm :  Colaba 435 mms, Santacruz 272 mms
Wettest May ever: Colaba 280 mms ( 1918) , Sanatcruz: 388 mms (2000)

Heaviest 24 hrs fall in May: Colaba 128 mms (2006), This year new record of 144 mms till 5.30 in 9 hrs.

 Santacruz: 191 mms (2000)

26th May ...2025...

Heavy rains lash Central and South Mumbai on 25th Night into 26th Morning....

Rainfall ended 8.30 am Colaba IMD 135 mms, and 105 mms from 8.30 to 11.30 am Monday.

 SantaCruz 33 mm and 55 mms from 8.30 to 11.30 am 

Rainfall in last 12 hrs ended 12 noon 26th>.

Vagaries 97 mms

Monsoon Advancing as a Temporary current into Konkan and Mumbai>>.Temporary as we expect a sort of "Lull" or weak rains from 29th over Mumbai>Currently the AS 1 system is playing around Coastal Maharashtra..pulling up a temporary current.

Mumbai: Slowing down and decrease in rains from Tuesday 27th evening...

 25th Night

Monsoon advances further into Karnataka...due to proper Westerlies and 200 jet streams alignment. 

Mumbai may have a not so vigorous onset probably early if westerlies align...but may only be some showers and not a heavy rain type oonset

Outlook for 

26th/27/28/29: Some occasional showers with thunder. 

May be slight reduction in rainfall after 29th.

Monsoon dates for Mumbai 

From Vagaries Extreme Blog 👇

 

 25th May

24 hrs Mumbai rain

Malabar hill 58 mms

Nana chowk & Frosberr53 mm

Haji Ali 52 mms

Worli 51 mms

Vagaries 52 mms

Dadar 48 mms

Nariman Point 42 mms

IMD Colaba 35 mms ( 159 mms total)

IMD Santacruz 27 mm ( 164 mms total)

The irrational movement of the Low continues...its at 1000 hpa.

Its touring Maharashtra now

This is the earliest SW Monsoon Onset over Kerala since 2009 and the second earliest in this 21st century

This is probably the only Arabian Sea depression (Monsoon Onset Vortex) forming during the Monsoon Onset phase in the last 42 years to have tracked east directly into Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra

(Analysis by Vagarian Shreyas.)

 23rd May:

We had mentioned in the previous blog ,that, this system is tricky and we need to update again

Previous blog 👇

...it has tricked us all...every agency world wide !!

AS 1, low pressure,  seems to be crossing into South Konkan, and not gaining more strength. ( Liking for the Alphonso mangoes 🥭).

Vagaries of the Weather!

That's how it is guys!

Following up more.

AS 1 system brought cold days on 23rd in Maharashtra   and All Time May Day Low records set on 23rd May 

Coldest May Day:👇 

Sambhajinagar. 23rd .Max 26.8°c (-12.7c) ...Previous Low record 28.6 in 2016

Mahabaleshwar : 23rd Max 19.2c ( -10.3c) ...Previous low on 22nd May 2025 20.2c !

Kolhapur : 23rd Max 24.8c ( -10.0c)...

Previous record  25.0c in 2010.

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Second Coldest May on record👇

Pune: 23rd  Max 26.6c ( -10.0c) ...

Holding Record 25.8c in 2000

Satara: 23rd Max 23.2c....

Holding Record 20.1c in 2005

 23rd Night Post:

As per Vagaries, South West Monsoon Advances into Kerala as a feeble current:

As 1 off the South Konkan Coast, is expected to " push into the coast " very marginally. Will track almost along coast till Gujarat Coast , when it may strengthen a bit.

Moderate showers for Mumbai and Pune on 24th/25th.

By 25th night, the system AS 1 could be parellel to Mumbai, when there may be some squally weather and more rainfall.

 22nd Evening Post:

The Low  pressure AS 1 persists of the Maharashtra Coast at 999 hpa, circulating winds at 25 kmph.

Under extreme force from strong SW winds, this system will prevail at current intensity and graze along Maharashtra Coast on 23rd/24th.

Will be a Depression in the next 2 days.

(As the current situation is very tricky considering the uncertainty of track and position of system, Will update  more later.)

No Cyclone crossing the Coast.

Heavy Rains likely along Konkan coast. ( Sindhudurg, Ratnagiri, Raigadh)and Madhya Maharashtra. (Satara, Sangli, Kolhapur, Pune , Nashik and adjoing Sambhajinagar) will get heavy rains on 23rd/24th. Coast will witness gusty winds upto 35-40 kmph.

Mumbai:

23rd/24th : Rain showers with some heavy falls. Gusty winds during rains. Accumulated 2 days rains varying between 45-80mms. 

25th/26th: Moderate Rain showers will persist. 

No Cyclone crossing Mumbai. 

Pune : 

23rd/24th: Moderate to heavy showers with cool days. 

25th/26th: Showers will persist next 2 days.

Monsoon can be expected in Mumbai/Pune around 1st June.

Sambhajinagar : Moderate steady rain expected on 23rd/24. Two days accumulated rain could be around 30-50 mms.

Goa: Heavy rains expected in Goa daily from 23rd to 26th. We can expect acummalated 150-200 mms in 4 days.

Mumbai can expect Thundershowers by evening on Thursday. Cloud developments will increase late afternoon. Some parts can get heavy localised rain. .

Rainfall will be more intense on Friday.

👇12 Noon Thursday...

.

Pune can expect heavy thundershowers on Thursday evening. Heavy in some places. More rains on Friday with thunder.

 22nd May Morning:

A Low pressure area AS - 1 has formed in the Arabian Sea off the Konkan Coast.

Konkan Regions can get heavy rain ( Sindhudurg, Ratnagiri,Raigad) next 24-48 hrs.

Ghats sidee may see rain/thunderstorms.

Pune may see rains again later in the day. Confluence of winds at 700 levels near Pune can produce thunderstorms today.

 24hr rainfall figures from Mumbai BMC 

*(12pm 20th to 12pm 21st may 2025)*

Malpa Dongari Andheri : 81.4 mm

Thackeray Mun. School, Jogeshwari: 79.4 mm

Juhu Dispensary: 70.8 mm

K East Ward Office: 67.55 mm

Aarey Colony: 64.6 mm

MCMCR, Powai: 61 mm

Santacruz Workshop: 57.65 mm

Marol Fire Station: 51.56 mm

Khar Danda, Pali Hill: 50 mm

BKC Fire Station: 45.8 mm

Tembipada Bhandup: 43.4 mm

N Ward Office: 42.8 mm

Pune Rains 

Pune 03 UTC Rainfall(mm) dt. 21.05.2025

CHINCHWAD 101.0

DHAMDHERE 85.5

HADAPSAR 76.0

DUDULGAON 70.5

WADGAONSHERI 67.0

NDA 65.5

LONAVALA 56.5

PASHAN 54.0

HAVELI 49.0

LAVASA 49.0

TALEGAON 44.0

GIRIVAN 42.0

SHIVAJINAGAR 40.5

LAVALE 35.5

RAJGURUNAGAR 29.0

MALIN 28.0

KOREGAON PARK 28.0

NARAYANGOAN 28.0

PURANDAR 17.5

NIMGIRI 12.5

BALLALWADI 6.0

BHOR 6.0

BARAMATI 5.0

DAPODI 3.5

MAGARAPATTA 1.0

DAUND 0.5

Udupi District heaviest rainfall

 

20th May..

Powerful TS lashed #Pune region in last 12hrs

Some readings in mm till 11pm

#Hinjewadi: 99

#Velhe: 88

#Umbre Kasurdi: 82

#Khadakwasla: 79

#Kasarsai & Ghod Dam: 73

#SinhagadRoad: 72

#Sus: 68

#Kothrud: 65

#Bibwewadi:61

#Yerwada: 60

#Shikrapur: 57

#Bavdhan: 55

#Davdi: 54

#Nigdi: 48

Heavy West Coast Rains

RAINFALL TILL 9 pm 

Mumbai 

Top 5 rainfall places in BMC 

Mahakali caves 71mm

Malpa dongri andheri 68mm

Eksar borivali 63mm

Anand nagar Dahisar 54mm

Malvani 47mm

Pune 

Hinjewadi 95 mms

Baner 40 mms

20th...Margao,  Goa..as per Vag. Atul Naik's PWS

0:00 -8:30 : 27.7 mm

8:30 - 20-30 : 140 mm

From 0:00 - 2056: 207.30 mm

Kerala 

Posted 20th May Morning:

Rainy week ahead for most of the west coast and peninsular India...SW Monsoon on the horizon☔

As mentioned in our earlier post, the upper air cyclonic circulation (UAC) has moved over peninsular India from the Bay of Bengal. It is about to emerge over the Arabian Sea and a surface low pressure area is likely to form around 22nd May off the Karnataka/Goa coast. 

This low may intensify as it tracks north-northwest...there is a possibility of it intensifying into a deep depression or a cyclone...needs to be monitored. 

Today morning's wind pattern shows Southwest Monsoon established till Sri Lanka...with a cyclonic circulation over Karnataka coast.

The southwest winds are expected to strengthen over the Arabian Sea in the coming days, with the Monsoon likely hitting the Kerala coast around 24th May (+/- 2 days), which is around a week ahead of schedule. 

Thereafter, under the influence of the strengthening low (which may have become an onset vortex/depression by then), the monsoon can quickly advance over the west coast and possibly reach Goa around 27th/28th May. 

Further progress of the monsoon along the west coast and in the interior peninsula depends upon the track of the Arabian Sea system. 

As the scenario is unfolding, (and if persisting), Mumbai can herald in the Monsoon around 1st June (+/- 2 days). Interior South Maharashtra around 1st June and North Madhya Maharashtra 3rd June 

At present, model forecasts also indicate a chance of a low pressure system forming over the northern Bay of Bengal by early next week and tracking westwards, which could help advance the Monsoon over eastern states.

More updates on this in subsequent posts.

This May has been quite cooler and wetter than normal (below images from IMD)

Decoding how the weather has evolved since the start of this month👇

⇨ We had an unusually strong and southward dipping Western Disturbance (WD) in the first week of May. 

⇨ This ensured that the seasonal high pressure system over the Arabian Sea is disrupted. 

⇨ After this strong and prolonged WD lasting for a few days, the line of wind discontinuity formed over the peninsular India and Western Ghats, which resulted in fairly regular thunderstorms in these regions stretching from Maharashtra into Kerala/Tamil Nadu, across Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.

⇨ A UAC formed over the Bay of Bengal by the end of the second week of May, and has tracked westwards, bringing in moisture over the peninsular India from both the east as well as west (pull-effect). This UAC is now seen merging with the east-west shear zone, which is associated with the northward advance of the monsoon.
 
⇨ The seasonal high pressure over the central Arabian Sea did not get established. On the other hand, the cross-equatorial flow from the Indian Ocean in the southern hemisphere has strengthened. 

⇨ Overall, the seasonal northward-moving Monsoonal circulation is seen strengthening across the Indo-Pacific regions. 

⇨ As a result, the Southwest Monsoon is running ahead of schedule by around a week, with an earlier onset seen over the Andaman & Nicobar region and an earlier onset expected over Kerala.