🌩️✨ *Breaking News from the* *Skies*! ✨🌩️

We’re thrilled to share that *Vagaries of the Weather*©️

has been officially ranked:

🔹 *#1 Weather Blog in India* 🇮🇳

🔹 *#18 in the World* 🌍

by one of the _most_ comprehensive global blog ranking platforms.

🏆 Rankings are based on the best out of 1000 weather blogs worldwide:

✔️ Relevancy & Independence (non-brand bias)

✔️ Blog Post Frequency (Freshness)

✔️ Social Media Reach & Engagement

✔️ Domain Authority

✔️ Web Traffic (Alexa Rank)

✔️ Years of Consistent Contribution 🌦️

…and more!

This recognition celebrates not just numbers, but trust, persistence, and a passion for decoding the skies.

🌈 *Thank you* to our readers, weather watchers, and well-wishers—you made this possible!

Here’s to clearer forecasts and cloudier dreams! ☁️💙

#VagariesOfTheWeather #WeatherBlogRanking #TopInIndia #GlobalWeatherWatch #SkyHighNews

Weather forecast from Tuesday 3rd June to Sunday 8th June -

 "Temporary Monsoon" on a break as mentioned !

Ridge along West Coast causing a lull;

Break monsoon conditions to prevail till at least 9th June. During this period, thundershowers may be possible in interior regions of peninsular India such as south Madhya Maharashtra, Telangana, interior Karnataka, parts of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

Mumbai:

Monsoon may gain strength from 7th/8th June

 *Hot and humid days with max around 33C and min around 27C. 

*Partly cloudy skies with some passing showers in some parts of city on 3rd and 4th. 

*Days and nights can get warmer and uncomfortable from 5th June onwards as westerly winds to weaken. 

*Some localized thunderstorms likely from 6th to 8th - higher chances for eastern townships in Thane, Raigad districts and along Western Ghats . 

Pune: *Partly cloudy and warmer days with max around 33-34C on 3rd and 4th June. 

*Few light showers likely. Days may get warmer from 5th June onwards, with chances of thunderstorms from 5th to 8th June.  

Ch. Sambhajinagar: Warmer days with good sunshine. Max temperatures around 35-36C. Chance of rain/thunderstorms in few regions of the district from 4th to 8th June.

छ. संभाजीनगर: चांगला सूर्यप्रकाशासह उष्ण दिवस. कमाल तापमान सुमारे ३५-३६ अंश सेल्सिअस. ४ ते ८ जून दरम्यान जिल्ह्यातील काही भागात मेघगर्जनेसह पाऊस पडण्याची शक

 

 May 2025 ....Excessive rains: Mar/Apr/May...Pre Monsoon season

As on 1st May showed :-16% 

 & As on 31st May :+42%

Heavy Record rainfall totals of May 2025

Mumbai Colaba: 503 mms   (ATR)

Mumbai Scruz,:387 mms

Pune : 240 mms (ATR)

Mahabaleshwar: 445 mms ( Normal=67 mms)

Matheran : 551 mms (ATR)

Guhagarh: 707 mms

Mormugao : 700 mms

Panjim: 637 mms ( Normal=65 mms)

Dabolim : 680 mms

Mapusa: 693 mms

----Cherrapunji : 1437 mms--

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

Kakkayam Dam, Kerala 1420

Bhagamandala, Karnataka 1270.1 mm

Talakaveri - 1676.8 mm

Kottigehara - 1141.2mm

Hulikal - 1006mm

Courtesy Pradeep John 👆

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Konkan Rainfall 

Courtesy Abhijit Modak 👇👆

Courtesy Abhijit Modak 

RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD 1-3-2025 to 31-5-2025

 

31st May:

Weather wise, an event full May for Maharashtra...specially for Mumbai and Pune.

1. 26th May, An earliest ever Monsoon setting date for Mumbai. The previous earliest was May to 29th in 1956, , . 

However, this year, we announced a " temporary advance". Now, this has never been termed before anytime. Looking at the initial surge , due to the meandering Low pressure system ( AS 1) over Maharashtra, we coined this term " temporary " as we saw very heavy rainfalls in Mumbai and Interior Maharashtra (Pune Region). 

(all records and figures in previous posts).

Showing a image of our 26th blog post :👇

Rainfall Total of May 2025 (with normal in Brackets)👇

Mumbai:

Mumbai Colaba: 503 mms ( 16mms). ...Record for May beating 218 mms in 1918.

Heaviest 27th 24 hrs fall of 162 mms on 27th May broke the previous May Record of 128 mms in 2000.

Mumbai Scruz: 378 mms ( 18 mms)....Scruz record of 388 mms in 2000 hold good ! 

Mumbai Avg. May month Average Max in 2025 is 33.5c...Day/Night Average 30.0c...Normal Average is 30.5c

------------------------------------------------------------

2. Pune:

One of the coolest May on record for Mumbai & Pune....With coldest May Day ever for Pune at 24.8c on 27th...

2025 May Month Max Avg  is 33.2c Normal is 37.3c

Overall day/Night Avg: 25.9c...

May Rains Total:👇

Pune: 240.2 mms ( 30 mms) Record for May beating 182 mm in 1933

Mahabaleshwar: 445 mms ( 67 mms)

Matheran : 551 mms

Guhagarh: 707 mms

Mormugao : 700 mms

Panjim: 637 mms ( 65 mms)

Dabolim : 680 mms

Mapusa: 693 mms

----Cherrapunji : 1437 mms---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And sure enough, the rains have drastically reduced after 29th.

The days got warmer..as the Monsoon current weakened..

 30th May

Depression BB 2 Location

Well Done IITM..and Prof Mukhopadhyay and his team !

How India’s cutting-edge weather forecast system was built from a lab in Pune

------------------------------------------------------------------------

29th May:

The Depression, BB-2, has crossed into the West Bengal Coast. Will track N/NE.

 

Very heavy rains now will occur in Bangladesh and NE States.

The Axis will move Northwards, As a result>

 30th May - 4th June: 

Mumbai, Pune , Marathwada and Gujarat will see little rainfall. Few Passing showers for Mumbai. 

Hotter days and nights.

Opportunity for completing any pending civil work and water proofing👇

----------------------

Current Winds as on 27th with Monsoon Axis:

..From 29th to 7th June.Rains almost to negligible in Mumbai, Pune, Interior Maharashtra, Sambhajinagar and Bharuch.

Axis and winds expected to shift Northwards ..creating a somewhat hiatus in rains 

 The southwest monsoon made its earliest entry into India this year, hitting Kerala on 24th May and rapidly advancing (temporarily) to Mumbai by 26th May, its earliest arrival.

Fueled by a depression over the Arabian Sea, the monsoon brought record-breaking rainfall to Mumbai.

Colaba recorded 472 mm, surpassing the previous May record from 1918 (280 mms), while Santacruz reported 347 mm.

While rainfall will now reduce, intermittent showers and overcast skies are expected.

A trough off the Konkan coast may keep rains active, but the worst seems to be over for now.

Cool Summer Days in Maharashtra ...27th May..Coldest May Day ever in Pune at 24.8°c 

**Mumbai (CLB) 27th Morning 24 hrs rain: 161.9 mms

May total: 456.5 mms. (Departure from Normal: +446.7 mms)...Previous May Month record 280 mms in 1918.

**Mumbai (SCZ) 27th Morning 24 hrs Rain:  144.2 mms

May Total: 342.0 mms (Departure from Normal +329.6 mms)... Previous May Month record 388 mms in 2000.

**Pune may total as yet on 27th:218 mms... Previous  may record 182 mms in 1933

26TH MAY

MONSOON ENTERS INTO MUMBAI AND PUNE AS A "TEMPORARY" CURRENT.

WE TERM "TEMPORARY" AS EVEN AS RAINFALL IS HEAVY, IT IS NOT STABILISED AS PER CRITERIAS. HENCE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF SCALING DOWN IN RAIN INTENESITY FROM 29TH MAY, FOR A WEEK/10 DAYS.

This could well be the earliest Monsoon Date arrival In Mumbai and Pune. 

Previous dearly dates , as per Vagaries' extreme Blog

May 2025 total till date 5.30 pm :  Colaba 435 mms, Santacruz 272 mms
Wettest May ever: Colaba 280 mms ( 1918) , Sanatcruz: 388 mms (2000)

Heaviest 24 hrs fall in May: Colaba 128 mms (2006), This year new record of 144 mms till 5.30 in 9 hrs.

 Santacruz: 191 mms (2000)

26th May ...2025...

Heavy rains lash Central and South Mumbai on 25th Night into 26th Morning....

Rainfall ended 8.30 am Colaba IMD 135 mms, and 105 mms from 8.30 to 11.30 am Monday.

 SantaCruz 33 mm and 55 mms from 8.30 to 11.30 am 

Rainfall in last 12 hrs ended 12 noon 26th>.

Vagaries 97 mms

Monsoon Advancing as a Temporary current into Konkan and Mumbai>>.Temporary as we expect a sort of "Lull" or weak rains from 29th over Mumbai>Currently the AS 1 system is playing around Coastal Maharashtra..pulling up a temporary current.

Mumbai: Slowing down and decrease in rains from Tuesday 27th evening...

 25th Night

Monsoon advances further into Karnataka...due to proper Westerlies and 200 jet streams alignment. 

Mumbai may have a not so vigorous onset probably early if westerlies align...but may only be some showers and not a heavy rain type oonset

Outlook for 

26th/27/28/29: Some occasional showers with thunder. 

May be slight reduction in rainfall after 29th.

Monsoon dates for Mumbai 

From Vagaries Extreme Blog 👇

 

 25th May

24 hrs Mumbai rain

Malabar hill 58 mms

Nana chowk & Frosberr53 mm

Haji Ali 52 mms

Worli 51 mms

Vagaries 52 mms

Dadar 48 mms

Nariman Point 42 mms

IMD Colaba 35 mms ( 159 mms total)

IMD Santacruz 27 mm ( 164 mms total)

The irrational movement of the Low continues...its at 1000 hpa.

Its touring Maharashtra now

This is the earliest SW Monsoon Onset over Kerala since 2009 and the second earliest in this 21st century

This is probably the only Arabian Sea depression (Monsoon Onset Vortex) forming during the Monsoon Onset phase in the last 42 years to have tracked east directly into Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra

(Analysis by Vagarian Shreyas.)

 23rd May:

We had mentioned in the previous blog ,that, this system is tricky and we need to update again

Previous blog 👇

...it has tricked us all...every agency world wide !!

AS 1, low pressure,  seems to be crossing into South Konkan, and not gaining more strength. ( Liking for the Alphonso mangoes 🥭).

Vagaries of the Weather!

That's how it is guys!

Following up more.

AS 1 system brought cold days on 23rd in Maharashtra   and All Time May Day Low records set on 23rd May 

Coldest May Day:👇 

Sambhajinagar. 23rd .Max 26.8°c (-12.7c) ...Previous Low record 28.6 in 2016

Mahabaleshwar : 23rd Max 19.2c ( -10.3c) ...Previous low on 22nd May 2025 20.2c !

Kolhapur : 23rd Max 24.8c ( -10.0c)...

Previous record  25.0c in 2010.

---------------------------------------------------------

Second Coldest May on record👇

Pune: 23rd  Max 26.6c ( -10.0c) ...

Holding Record 25.8c in 2000

Satara: 23rd Max 23.2c....

Holding Record 20.1c in 2005

 23rd Night Post:

As per Vagaries, South West Monsoon Advances into Kerala as a feeble current:

As 1 off the South Konkan Coast, is expected to " push into the coast " very marginally. Will track almost along coast till Gujarat Coast , when it may strengthen a bit.

Moderate showers for Mumbai and Pune on 24th/25th.

By 25th night, the system AS 1 could be parellel to Mumbai, when there may be some squally weather and more rainfall.

 22nd Evening Post:

The Low  pressure AS 1 persists of the Maharashtra Coast at 999 hpa, circulating winds at 25 kmph.

Under extreme force from strong SW winds, this system will prevail at current intensity and graze along Maharashtra Coast on 23rd/24th.

Will be a Depression in the next 2 days.

(As the current situation is very tricky considering the uncertainty of track and position of system, Will update  more later.)

No Cyclone crossing the Coast.

Heavy Rains likely along Konkan coast. ( Sindhudurg, Ratnagiri, Raigadh)and Madhya Maharashtra. (Satara, Sangli, Kolhapur, Pune , Nashik and adjoing Sambhajinagar) will get heavy rains on 23rd/24th. Coast will witness gusty winds upto 35-40 kmph.

Mumbai:

23rd/24th : Rain showers with some heavy falls. Gusty winds during rains. Accumulated 2 days rains varying between 45-80mms. 

25th/26th: Moderate Rain showers will persist. 

No Cyclone crossing Mumbai. 

Pune : 

23rd/24th: Moderate to heavy showers with cool days. 

25th/26th: Showers will persist next 2 days.

Monsoon can be expected in Mumbai/Pune around 1st June.

Sambhajinagar : Moderate steady rain expected on 23rd/24. Two days accumulated rain could be around 30-50 mms.

Goa: Heavy rains expected in Goa daily from 23rd to 26th. We can expect acummalated 150-200 mms in 4 days.