tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post7915896412823888521..comments2024-03-28T22:32:17.248+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-52442830855956987402018-07-31T10:46:39.786+05:302018-07-31T10:46:39.786+05:30Credit Australian government bureau of meteorology...Credit Australian government bureau of meteorology <br /><br />Issued 31 July 2018<br /> <br />The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.<br /> <br />El Niño WATCH continues<br /> <br />The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. While the central Pacific Ocean has cooled very slightly in the past fortnight, more than half of international climate models predict warming to recommence in the coming month, and El Niño to develop in spring. Therefore, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH. An El Niño WATCH means there is a 50% chance of El Niño forming in 2018; double the normal chance.<br /><br />Oceanic ENSO indicators remain neutral. The surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled slightly in the past fortnight but remains warmer than average. Likewise, the water below the surface of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean has also cooled recently but remains warmer than average. Atmospheric indicators such as the trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), also remain neutral.<br /><br />Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to recommence in the coming weeks. Five of eight models indicate El Niño levels will be reached in the southern hemisphere spring, while a sixth model reaches El Niño levels in December.<br /><br />During El Niño, winter-spring rainfall in eastern Australia is typically below average while daytime temperatures are typically warmer than average in the south.<br /><br />The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. Three of six international climate models indicate a positive IOD event may develop, with a fourth model close to meeting thresholds. A positive IOD event typically reduces winter–spring rainfall in central and southern Australia, and can exacerbate any El Niño driven rainfall deficiencies.<br /> <br />More information<br /><br />Media enquiries: (03) 9669 4057 media@bom.gov.au<br /> <br />Next update expected on 14 August 2018<br /> NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-18629952443671101132018-07-30T22:54:36.612+05:302018-07-30T22:54:36.612+05:30What about other end of extremities - Rayalseema, ...What about other end of extremities - Rayalseema, Chittor, Anantapur, Cuddapa, Tamil Nadu complete dry. No proper NEM since 2015. 5 years drought, 1 year of normal rain...Wondering if August,September will rains occur over interiors of south ?<br /><br />UP received very good rains in short time.ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-58049993075869954502018-07-30T20:14:57.825+05:302018-07-30T20:14:57.825+05:30Hello,
Any station who have crossed 5000 mm mark ...Hello,<br /><br />Any station who have crossed 5000 mm mark till now. Seems Agumbe is close to this. What is situation of other Station in Maharashtra, Meghalaya.Vinod Desaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14437335217298178735noreply@blogger.com